College Football Rankings: Predicting the AP Poll Top 25 with Michigan beating rival Ohio State, while Washington, FSU and Alabama all escaping with wins

In a wild Rivalry Weekend, Michigan again bullied Ohio State late, while Washington, Florida State and Alabama all escaped with dramatic wins to stay in contention for the College Football Playoff. Although Week 13 featured just a lone big upset — Louisville losing at home to Kentucky it didn’t lack drama or bananas endings. 

Inside the final 35 seconds, the Crimson Tide converted a 4th-and-goal from the 31-yard line inside for a game-winning touchdown to win the Iron Bowl. The Huskies need a 42-yard field goal from a walk-on kicker as time expired to survive an upset bid by Wazzu in the Apple Cup. Florida State overcame some lackluster offense early to ride Trey Benson and its defense to a win in The Swamp over Florida. 

In the end, there doesn’t project to be a ton of movement in the rankings but there is some shuffling in the Top 10.

Here’s how I think the new AP Top 25 will look come Sunday:

1. Georgia (Last week: 1)

The Bulldogs looked completely disinterested for most of the night against in-state rival Georgia Tech, holding on for a 31-23 victory for their 29th straight victory and a third consecutive undefeated regular season. 

Kendall Milton rushed for a career-high 156 yards and two scores, as Georgia leaned on its ground attack playing without a slew of its top receiving options (Brock Bowers, Ladd McConkey and Rara Thomas). The Bulldogs still had 450 yards of total offense, but the unit was hardly crisp in Atlanta on Saturday night, as Carson Beck had a pair of tipped passes intercepted, one in the end zone, and Daijun Edwards fumbled on their opening possession. 

The Bulldogs, the SEC’s least penalized team, also had a pair of touchdowns wiped out due to a couple of questionable calls. 

Georgia will return to Atlanta to play Alabama in the SEC Championship next weekend for a chance to lock up its third-straight trip to the College Football Playoff. 

2. Michigan (Last week: 3)

Even without head coach Jim Harbaugh, the Wolverines again proved the tougher, more battle-tested team in “The Game,” beating arch-rival Ohio State 30-24 to remain undefeated and clinch a spot in the Big Ten title game. 

In a heavyweight bout where both teams were throwing haymakers, Michigan packed the final punches, effectively chewing up most of the 4th quarter clock and then intercepting Kyle McCord inside the final 20 seconds. 

Michigan has now won three-straight over Ohio State, with Sherrone Moore out-coaching Ryan Day on Saturday. The Wolverines played loose and confident, aggressively going for it on 4th down three times in the first half — converting all three chances. Blake Corum rushed for two touchdowns and J.J. McCarthy was an efficient 16 of 20 for 148 yards and a score. 

Harbaugh will return to the sidelines next weekend when Michigan plays Iowa in the Big Ten Championship.

3. Washington (Last week: 3)

The Huskies continue to survive and advance, capping an undefeated regular-season with a game-winning 42-yard field goal to escape the Apple Cup with a 24-21 win over rival Washington State.

Washington’s offense never found its usual rhythm (just 306 total yards), but when the Huskies needed Michael Penix Jr. and Rome Odunze the most, their stars came up large. Odunze caught two touchdowns, and had a clutch 23-yard run to extend the game-winning drive. 

Facing a 4th-and-1 at their own 29 with just over a minute remaining, Kalen DeBoer dialed up a reverse option play and Penix flipped the ball to Odunze and then became his lead blocker. Later in the drive, Odunze, saved Penix from throwing his second interception of the game — turning into a cornerback on the goal line and swatting away a potential pick. 

The Huskies are 12-0 for the first time since 1991. They’ll face Oregon in a rematch for the Pac-12 title Friday in Las Vegas.

4. Florida State (Last week: 5)

With backup quarterback Tade Rodemaker struggling to connect with a group of star receivers, the Seminoles rode tailback Trey Benson and a ferocious pass rush to an ugly 24-15 win in The Swamp over rival Florida.

Benson rushed for 95 yards and three touchdowns, including a dagger 26-yard scamper touchdown inside the final three minutes to seal FSU’s first undefeated regular season since 2014. 

Starting in place of the injured Jordan Travis, Rodemaker threw for just 134 yards on 12 of 25 passing and was later knocked out of the game on a vicious late hit by a pair of Florida defensive backs. The junior did complete a clutch throw on 4th-and-3 midway through the fourth quarter, setting up FSU’s go-ahead field goal. 

FSU took advantage of Florida’s typical sloppiness and lack of discipline (80 penalty yards), with flags extending multiple drives, and then the Seminoles’ defensive line took over the game. Jared Verse was unblockable late, finishing with 2.5 sacks and three TFLs. Patrick Payton also chipped in two sacks, as FSU battered freshman Max Brown for six sacks in his first-career start. Florida finished with -15 yards in the fourth quarter. 

FSU will play Louisville in the ACC title game, and the question will be is Rodemaker healthy to go or with the ‘Noles have to turn to 3rd-string freshman Brock Gleen?

5. Oregon (Last week: 6)

The Ducks clinched a spot in the Pac-12 Championship with a 31-7 victory Friday night against in-state rival Oregon State, exacting some revenge on the Beavers in the final scheduled ‘Civil War.’

Now winners of six straight since losing at Washington in mid-October, Oregon has the opportunity to deliver more payback in an epic rematch against the Huskies, potentially locking down a spot in the final four-team College Football Playoff field with a win in Las Vegas next weekend.  

Bo Nix accounted for nearly 400 total yards and three touchdowns, having his latest “Heisman moment” when he led Oregon to a touchdown drive inside the final 45 seconds of the first half — capping the scoring with a rollout, cross-body throw for a 41-yard touchdown to Troy Franklin. Franklin had a 128 yards receiving, and Tez Johnson chipped in 11 catches for 138 yards, while Oregon’s defense harassed DJ Uiagalelei (220 yards with one touchdown, one INT) and Damien Martinez (just 38 rushing yards on 13 carries) all night. 

Oregon is 11-1 in the regular-season for the first time since 2019. 

6. Texas (Last week: 7)

The Longhorns spoiled Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark’s wishes that Texas Tech would upset its in-state rivals, as Texas demolished the Red Raiders 57-7 to clinch a berth in the Big 12 Championship in the program’s final season in the conference. Texas is now 11-1 and still in contention for a potential College Football Playoff spot. It’s the program’s most wins in a regular season since 2009 when it lost to Alabama in the national title game. 

The Longhorns completely bottled up the Red Raiders (184 total yards allowed with a 43-yard pick-six), while hammering TTU with big plays (69-yard touchdown run, 100-yard kickoff return, 20-yard touchdown pass) in a viciously-balanced attack (226 passing yards, 302 rushing).

The score should’ve been worse, but the red zone remains Texas’ biggest bugaboo. All season the have Longhorns consistently failed to score touchdowns, entering Friday night 127th nationally in TD-red zone rate. Their struggles continued against Texas Tech, scoring a touchdown on just one of five chances in the first half. Quinn Ewers tossed a pick in the end zone, and they settled on four (of five) Bert Auburn field goals. 

Lastly, 5-star freshman Arch Manning made his Texas debut, drawing raucous cheers on a 5-yard scramble on his second play from scrimmage.

7. Ohio State (Last week: 2)

Ryan Day spent the last two months building up Ohio State’s toughness, and while the Buckeyes played a physical brand of football in Ann Arbor, they wilted under pressure late once again, losing a third-straight game to Michigan. 

At 11-1, Ohio State is unlikely to back into the College Football Playoff like it did last season — meaning another lost year for Day and the Buckeyes. 

For three quarters, they answered most of Michigan’s punches, tying the game at 17-all at one point only give up 10 straight unanswered. Kyle McCord tossed a pair of back-breaking interceptions — one of which led to Michigan’s first touchdown drive and the second which ended the game. 

Ohio State’s defense was unable to force a turnover or game-changing play, and they couldn’t get a stop on Michigan’s final drive until more than seven minutes had been milked off the clock. Now Day enters an offseason chalked with continued questions about his inability to topple Ohio State’s biggest rival — no matter which coach is on the opposing sideline.

8. Alabama (Last week: 8)

The Crimson Tide needed a Prayer at Jordan-Hare, and Jalen Milroe had the answer with just 32 seconds left in the game, throwing a 31-yard touchdown pass to Isiah Bond on 4th-and-goal from the 31 to give Alabama a miracle 27-24 win over rival Auburn. 

Despite the Tigers dropping nine into coverage, Bond was 1-on-1 in the back corner of the end zone, and Milroe dropped a perfect pass to keep Alabama in the hunt for the College Football Playoff. The Tide, now 11-1, will play No. 1 Georgia for the SEC Championship next weekend in Atlanta. 

The Tide dominated the stat sheet — total yards, yards per play, third down — but they made critical penalties that negated two touchdowns. They trailed Auburn at multiple times, including 14-10 late in the first half when Milroe took advantage of a busted coverage to find a streaking Jermaine Burton for a 68-yard touchdown. Still, the Tigers wouldn’t go away, taking the lead with Ja’Varrius Johnson’s second touchdown of the game. A muffed punt setup Alabama’s game-winning score, but the Tide needed Milroe’s heroic efforts after more self-inflicted errors (an errant snap that cost them 18 yards and an illegal forward pass). 

9. Missouri (Last week: 10)

One of the feel-good stories of the 2023 season capped a remarkable year with another show-stopping performance, as Tigers tailback Cody Schrader ran for 217 yards — his fifth-straight game over 100 yards — in their 48-14 smashing of Arkansas. 

The former D-II walk had 194 yards in the first half, with Missouri jumping out to a 20-0 lead. Just before halftime, the two teams got into a mini-fracas, and three players were ejected for fighting. That only seemed to further fuel the Tigers, which scored 21 straight points in the third quarter, too. 

The Tigers forced five fumbles, including a strip of Hogs quarterback KJ Jefferson, who injured his knee on the first quarter play and missed the rest of the game. At 10-2 for the first time since 2014, Mizzou likely secured a spot in the New Year’s Six (perhaps the Cotton Bowl?).

10. Penn State (Last week: 12)

It took 12 games, but Penn State fans finally saw what an explosive offense looked like as the Nittany Lions splattered Michigan State 42-0 behind a host of big plays.  Both Nicolas Singleton (118 yards and a touchdown) and Kaytron Allen (career-high 137 yards) had over 100 yards rushing, with Singleton busting off a 50-yard rush and a 53-yard reception. Drew Allar threw for 292 yards — his best output since Week 1 against West Virginia. 

Two weeks after firing OC Mike Yursich, Penn State had 586 total yards — with 10 plays over 20 yards. They entered the night with just 30 such plays all season. 

The Nittany Lions’ defense did almost unfathomable things to Michigan State’s offense, limiting the Spartans to a putrid 68 total yards. They had 12 tackles for loss and seven sacks with Abdul Carter, Curtis Jacobs and the rest of the PSU defense totally hounding freshman quarterback Katin Houser. PSU now awaits its bowl destination in the New Year’s Six.

The rest of the projected AP Top 25:

11. Ole Miss (Last week: 12)

In classic Egg Bowl fashion, Ole Miss-Mississippi State devolved into a drunken bar fight on Thanksgiving, with neither offense able to muster up many punches against otherwise mediocre defenses. The Rebels were able to win ugly and outlast the Bulldogs 17-7, scoring just three points in the first half before riding tailback Quinshon Judkins (128 yards and a score) to victory. The Rebels were held to just 96 yards passing, but they rushed for over 200 yards and were 2-of-2 on 4th downs.

Ole Miss has now won 10 regular-season games for the second time in three years under Lane Kiffin. Depending on the final two CFP Rankings, they remain in position for a potential New Year’s Six bowl berth.

12. Oklahoma (Last week: 13)

In the program’s final Big 12 game, the Sooners torched TCU 69-45 in a Black Friday scorigami, ripping off 28 straight points in the second quarter to turn a one-point game into a blowout before halftime. The Sooners moved to 10-2, a nice rebound season after struggling in Year 1 under Brent Venables. 

Quarterback Dillion Gabriel, who was knocked out of last weekend’s game with a potential concussion, returned to action with four total touchdowns and over 435 yards, throwing a 50-yard pass on his first throw and scoring on a short run a couple plays later. Sooners tailback Gavin Sawchuk rushed for 130 yards and three touchdowns — two in the first half — while Drake Stoops caught a career-high 12 receptions for 125 yards and a touchdown on Senior Day. 

13. Louisville (Last week: 13)

The Cardinals coughed up a pair of 10-point leads to Kentucky, squandering a chance at an 11-1 regular-season in a dispiriting 38-31 loss to the Wildcats. 

It was their fifth-straight defeat in the Governor’s Cup, and it’s a stinging loss for a program set to play Florida State in its first ACC title game next weekend. 

Louisville out-gained Kentucky by over 100 yards (403-289), but the Cardinals had three turnovers and allowed a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown. They had no answer for Ray Davis, who single-handily out-scored Louisville in the fourth quarter with two touchdowns — including the game-winning score on a 37-yard run in the final minute.

14. LSU (Last week: 14)

Jayden Daniels continued his impressive Heisman Trophy campaign, accounting for over 350 yards and four touchdowns in LSU’s 42-30 comeback win over Texas A&M. 

The Tigers trailed by 10 points midway through the third quarter when Daniels led LSU to 21 unanswered points to take control of the game. He tossed a 23-yard touchdown strike to Brian Thomas, and then on the very next drive, found Malik Nabers for a 21-yard score. 

Time will tell if Daniels did enough in the voters’ minds to win the Heisman, but LSU finished the regular season 9-3 and Daniels had 50 total touchdowns and nearly 5,000 total yards. 

15. Arizona (Last week: 16)

For the second-straight week, the Wildcats completely boat-raced a Pac-12 — this time a 59-23 demolition over in-state rival Arizona State. 

In his first-ever Territorial Cup, freshman quarterback Noah Fifita threw for a school-record 527 yards and five touchdowns. Arizona raced out to a 38-7 lead, with four consecutive TD drives in the second quarter. 

In a rout where the Wildcats had over 600 total yards, star wideout Tetairoa McMillan caught had a record 266 receiving yards on 11 catches. 

Arizona won’t play in the Pac-12 title, but Jedd Fisch delivered the Wildcats their best season (9-3) since 2014. Arizona is going bowl for the first time in five years, too. 

16. Notre Dame (Last week: 17)

Sam Hartman added two more touchdowns to his active FBS record in his final regular-season game, but the Irish’s 56-23 housing at Stanford was the Audric Estime show in perhaps his final game in a Notre Dame uniform. 

The junior tailback rushed for a career-high 238 yards and four touchdowns, as Notre Dame won for the four time in five games to give Marcus Freeman a 9-3 season in Year 2. 

Thanks to three turnovers in the first half, the Irish actually trailed the Cardinal 16-14 before ripping off 42 unanswered points across the second and third quarters. They added a 60-yard blocked field goal return for a touchdown to cap the scoring barrage. 

Notre Dame will not play in a New Year’s Six game but is rumored to potentially face LSU in its bowl game. 

17. Tulane (Last week: 18)

In a matchup featuring a pair of undefeated teams in conference play, the Green Wave advanced to their second-straight AAC Championship with a 29-16 win over UTSA. 

Tulane road some timely defense (five takeaways) and tailback Makhi Hughes (career-high 166 yards and a touchdown) to its 10-straight win as it looks to claim the Group of 5’s New Year’s Six bowl berth. 

The Green Wave were actually out-gained by the Roadrunners (375-352), but they stopped UTSA three times on fourth downs, picked off a fake punt and forced Frank Harris into a pair of turnovers.  They had just a single scoring drive over 48 yards all game.

18. Iowa (Last week: 20)

The Hawkeyes concluded their regular-season with a classic only-Iowa-esque win, slipping past Nebraska with a 13-10 victory on a field-goal at the end of regulation. 

Deacon Hill actually threw an interception inside the final 40 seconds, but Iowa picked off Chubba Purdy a few plays later to setup the winning kick. Despite scoring over 22 points in a conference game just once all season, Iowa has won four-straight games and moved to 10-2.

The Hawkeyes will play Michigan in the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis next Saturday night. 

19. Oklahoma State (Last week: 21)

The Cowboys nearly coughed up their chance to play Texas for the Big 12 title, falling behind by three-scores to BYU only to rally and survive 40-34 in double-overtime. 

Ollie Gordon won’t win the Heisman Trophy, but the Oklahoma State remains one of the most important players in America, rushing for five touchdowns — including the game-winning score — to propel the Pokes back to the Big 12 Championship for the second time in three years. Gordon finished with 166 yards, and all five of his touchdowns came in the second half or OT as Oklahoma State had its third-largest comeback in school history. After a furious rally, the Pokes to a 27-24 lead inside the final minute but their PAT was blocked. BYU then stormed down the field on the ensuing possession to force overtime with a 48-yard field goal. 

The Cowboys’ victory proved even sweeter by the fact they kept Oklahoma out of the title game in its final season in the conference. 

20. Liberty (Last week: 22)

The Flames torched UTEP on the ground for a season-high 441 yards in a 42-28 victory to give the program their first undefeated season in school history. Quarterback Kaiden Salter threw for just 22 yards and and a touchdown, but he was one of five Liberty ball carriers with at least 70 yards rushing. The Flames ran for five scores — four before halftime to take a commanding 28-7 lead.

In their first year in Conference USA, Liberty is 12-0 and will host New Mexico State for league championship Friday. The Flames are just one of five remaining undefeated teams.  

21. Toledo (Last week: 23)

The Rockets won their 11 game in a row with a 32-17 rout over Central Michigan on Friday, becoming the first MAC team to go unbeaten in conference play since 2016. 

Toledo got off to a slow start, and was actually held scoreless until the final two minutes of the first half (10 points). The Rockets then road tailback Peny Boone (186 rushing yards and two scores, both in the second half) to a second-half offensive outburst, while their defense kept the Chippewas out of the end zone until the fourth quarter.

They’ll play Miami (OH) in the MAC Championship on Dec. 2, and they remain in the mix for a potential New Year’s Six Bowl game as the highest ranked G5 team.

22. James Madison (Last week: 24)

The Dukes rebounded from last week’s loss to App. State by waxing Coastal Carolina 56-14 to finish their second season in FBS play 11-1. Quarterback Jordan McCloud threw a career-high five touchdown passes and ran for another, too. 

James Madison led 28-0 at halftime and never looked back. It forced a trio of fumbles and out-gained CCU by over 150 yards. While the Dukes (stupidly) won’t be allowed to play Troy for the Sun Belt Championship, they will likely get to play in a bowl game since there aren’t enough six-win teams to fill all the allotted spots. 

23. NC State (Last week: Unranked)

The Wolfpack raced out to a 26-7 halftime lead over rival North Carolina before cruising for their fifth-straight victory in a 39-20 romp. Dave Doeren’s team continues to be a gritty bunch led by a feisty defense that hounds opponents, with senior linebacker Payton Wilson leading the way with 15 tackles, a sack, two tackles for loss and a INT. The Wolfpack turned Drake Maye over three times, and held the ACC’s leading rusher Omarion Hampton to just 28 yards. 

Brennan Armstrong, who was benched a month ago only to return to the starting lineup with MJ Morris not wanting to burn his redshirt, won his third straight game, throwing for 334 yards and three touchdowns. 

NC State has won three in a row over UNC, and now at 9-3, has a chance for the program’s second-ever 10-win season with a victory in the bowl game.

24. Oregon State (Last week: 15)

Outside of a 15-play, 80-yard touchdown drive that briefly cut Oregon State’s deficit to a one-score game, the Beavers mustered little fight in a 31-7 blowout loss at Oregon to end the regular season. 

DJ Uiagalelei wasn’t sharp in the face of constant pressure (19 of 35 for 220 yards, one touchdown and one pick), even getting sacked by his little brother Matayo Uiagalelei at one point in the second. The Beavers’ dominant rushing attack was also totally held in check, as Damien Martinez had just 38 yards rushing — by far his season-worst output in a single game. 

Oregon State finished the season on a disappointing two-game losing streak against Washington and Oregon, and now the program faces a transition season without head coach Jonathan Smith, who accepted the opening at Michigan State on Saturday night.

25. Tennessee (Last week: 25)

Behind Joe Milton’s first 300-yard career game (383 yards), the Vols snapped their two-game losing streak with a 48-24 win over Vanderbilt to cap an 8-4 regular season. Milton tossed four touchdowns and ran for another pair of scores in a chippy game marred by penalties (six unsportsmanlike flags) and mini-scuffles.

Milton got Tennessee on the board quickly, finding Ramel Keyton for a 56-yard touchdown in the first minute of action. The senior tacked on another three scores before halftime to give Tennessee a comfortable 31-10 lead. The Vols were able to empty the bench in the second half, allowing future playmakers like 5-star freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava (9 of 12 for 66 yards) to get some valuable action.  

Projected to drop out: Kansas State

In the Week 13 Ap Top 25 Poll projections, Michigan flexes over Ohio State again, while Washington and Alabama survive real scares.