College Football Rankings: Predicting the AP Top 25 Poll after Week 1

College football is back, and even despite a Week 1 that featured just three ranked-on-ranked matchups, we got to bathe in all its glory for five days over Labor Day Weekend. 

Florida State closed out Week 1 with another disappointing, no-show performance, losing as a double-digit underdog (again) at home to Boston College to move to 0-2 and freefall out of the Top 25 rankings.

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So after 96 games of entertainment, fireworks and a couple notable upsets, it’s time for a fresh set of rankings.  

Typically, the updated AP Top 25 poll is released on Sunday morning, but the rankings are always delayed until Tuesday after Labor Day in Week 1. 

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Each week, I’ll predict the moving and shaking of the AP Poll Top 25. In projecting some of the changes Tuesday, I Notre Dame, Miami and USC all making a move, while Oregon (despite its win), LSU and Texas A&M all drop. 

Here’s how I think the new AP Top 25 could look come Tuesday: 

1. Georgia (Last week: 1)

The Bulldogs overcame a sleepy start to suffocate No. 14 Clemson 34-3 behind a flurry of second-half touchdowns. Up just 6-0 at halftime, Carson Beck (300 total yards, two scores), freshman tailback Nate Frazier (107 total yards and one score) and transfer wideout London Humphreys (two big third-down conversions including a 40-yard catch-and-run score) heated up and cooked a Clemson defense for nearly 10.0 yards per play. The Bulldogs out-gained the Tigers by 4.1 yards per play and held Clemson to just 46 yards rushing on 23 carries — with a long of nine yards. 

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ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Georgia has won 40 straight regular-season games, the second-longest streak in 66 years. The Bulldogs continue to rout ranked teams, too, recording their seventh victory of at least 30 points against a Top 25 foe. 

2. Ohio State (Last week: 2)

The nation’s top 2024 recruit Jeremiah Smith introduced himself to the college football world, leading the Buckeyes with six receptions for 92 yards and two touchdowns in his debut. The 5-star freshman had an incredible one-handed catch to setup a short touchdown run, and Alsop hauled in two of Will Howard’s three passing scores in Ohio State’s 52-6 dismantling of Akron. Smith actually dropped the first pass thrown his way, but as was the case for the rest of the Buckeyes’ offense (just one score in the first quarter), he overcame the slow start. Ohio State allowed just 2.8 yards per play, as Jim Knowles’ unit created all sorts of havoc (10 tackles for loss, three takeaways, three PBUs). 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Ohio State’s offensive line was shorthanded without stating left guard Donovan Jackson, and unit didn’t dissuade some preseason concerns with a lack of dominance against a small Akron front. They didn’t allow a sack or tackle for loss, but they were shaky at times in pass pro, had several clear missed assignments and didn’t open up gaping holes for in the run game until late. 

3. Texas (Last week: 4)

The Longhorns steamrolled over Colorado State 52-0, as junior quarterback Quinn Ewers and Texas’ newcomer-heavy receiving corps were in-sync right away to kickoff the 204 season. Ewers had 260 yards passing and three scores — including a pair of touchdowns (one a nifty no-look toss) to Houston transfer Matthew Golden. Ex-Alabama wideout Isaiah Bond with five catches for 60 yards and a touchdown, while 5-star freshman had a team-high 70 yards receiving. Backup quarterback got into the fun in the second half, connecting with former Oregon State standout for a 5-yard touchdown for his first-career score. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Texas ranked 120th nationally in red zone touchdown scoring in 2023 — the lone bugaboo for the Longhorns’ offense. Ewers was much sharper throwing in tight windows in the 2024 opener, though, as Texas turned its first four trips inside the 20-yard line into first-half touchdowns. They finished 7-for-7 — with four passing scores and three rushing touchdowns.

4. Alabama (Last week: 5)

My preseason bold prediction that Jalen Milroe would lead the all power conference quarterbacks in total touchdowns is off to a blazing start, as the dual-threat maestro recorded five scores in a 63-0 romp over Western Kentucky. Milroe looked brilliant in new head coach Kalen DeBoer’s offense — as did the rest of the Tide’s playmakers which rolled up 16 explosive plays. Milroe connected with 5-star freshman wideout Ryan Williams for touchdowns of 85 and 55 yards, while Tide tailbacks Jam Miller (39 yards) and Justice Haynes (85 yards) both had long scores. Alabama out-gained WKU 600-145, and racked up several splash plays defensively, too, with Michigan transfer safety Keon Sabb picking off TJ Finley twice. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Ballyhooed boomerang transfer Kayden Proctor did not play Saturday, as the sophomore left tackle was injured in pregame warmups. The 2023 Freshman All-American was seen on the sideline in street clothes with his left arm in a sling. He was replaced by former 5-star Elijah Pritchett, who lost the RT battle. With Wisconsin on deck in Week 2, keep tabs on this one. 

5. Notre Dame (Last week: 7)

The Irish answered the call Saturday night in a hostile environment at Texas A&M, outlasting the Aggies 23-13 in a primetime slobber knocker. Marcus Freeman secured the statement win of his career to date, as quarterback Riley Leonard, tailback Jeremiyah Love and a re-tooled offensive line did just enough to get past the Aggies in a huge road win. Notre Dame finished with nearly 200 rushing yards, as Love and Leonard frustrated the TAMU front-seven to open up a couple of quality shot-plays downfield. The Irish defense was as advertised, picking off two passes and holding Texas A&M to just 246 total yards.

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Considering the rest of their schedule, Saturday’s win gives the Irish an inside track at a CFB playoff berth — possibly has high as the No. 5 seed. ABC flashed a graphic late in the fourth quarter that showed Notre Dame as a favorite in its remaining 11 regular-season games — with a home-date against USC its lowest probability win at 62%.

6. Oregon (Last week: 3)

Despite being 40-point favorites, the Ducks survived a legitimate scare from FCS Idaho on Saturday, getting a late touchdown to secure a 24-14 win over the Vandals. Dillon Gabriel threw for 380 yards, but the transfer quarterback was sacked three times and rarely even attempted any downfield shots. Was Oregon sleepwalking through Week 1? Did the Ducks’ vanilla gameplan limit scoring opportunities? We should find out as soon as next weekend when they welcome one of the top Group of 5 contenders in Boise State. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Oregon’s shorthanded offensive line surrendered three sacks Saturday night — this after giving up five sacks all of the 2023 season with Bo Nix at quarterback.

7. Ole Miss (Last week: 6)

Talk about a tune up: The Rebels demolished Furman 76-0, as Heisman hopeful Jaxson Dart accounted for six touchdowns (all in the first half). Lane Kiffin’s offense was humming from the start, jumping out to a 52-0 lead at halftime with eight touchdowns on the Rebels’ first eight drives. Dart had over 400 passing yards in one half, while the Rebels’ ground game amassed over 220 yards between a slew of ball-carriers. Tre Harris made his case as the top wideout in the SEC (eight catches for 179 yards and two scores), while Ole Miss’ portal-heavy defense racked up 16 tackles for loss and four sacks. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Dart became the first quarterback since Joe Burrow in 2019 (again: Heisman!) to throw for over 350 yards in the first half, per OM Spirit, setting the stage for a monster senior season. This is why Dart said he decided to return to school for one more year: To chase team and individual glory.

8. Penn State (Last week: 8)

It’s just a single data point, but Penn State certainly looked like a CFB playoff contender with a fresh, punchy offense Saturday. The Nittany Lions cruised past Big 12 foe West Virginia 34-12 — as a two-hour lightning delay couldn’t slow down quarterback Drew Allar (216 yards and three touchdowns), tailback Nick Singleton (114 yards and a score) or wideout Harrison Wallace (career-high 117 yards with two touchdowns). New offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s Mickey Mouse offense (a compliment I swear!) featured all sorts of motion, creativity and interesting personnel packages, producing 15 explosive plays. Allar fumbled on PSU’s opening possession, but was otherwise really sharp. PSU’s defense held a WVU rushing attack that ranked No. 3 nationally in 2023 to just 85 yards. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Wallace solidified an offseason of optimism, as the sophomore was billed for a breakout season and his monster day equated to more than half of his total yardage (228) in an injury-plagued 2023 season. 

9. Michigan (Last week: 9)

In a bit a bit of a surprise, the Wolverines went with former walk-on Davis Warren over Alex Orji at quarterback, but the reigning national champs survived an upset scare against Fresno State by beating the Bulldogs 30-10. Michigan led by just six points midway through the fourth quarter, only to turn on the jets — offensively and defensively — to cruise to a double-digit win. They marched 75 yards for touchdown and then saw All-American corner Will Johnson ice the game with a 86-yard pick-six. Late in the game, Michigan leaned on grad transfer running back Kalel Mullings (15 carries, 92 yards), while Warren connected with star tight end Colston Loveland for a 18-yard route and rumble for the punctuating touchdown. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Alex Orji entered the week as the frontrunner for the starting job, but the junior was QB2 before a marquee matchup against Texas. Orji doubled his career passing attempts Saturday (1 of 2 with a 3-yard touchdown), but once again he was mostly used as a run-threat option. 

10. Missouri (Last week: 11)

The Tigers blanked Murray State 51-0, with their new-look defense starting the season with a bang by holding the Racers to just 85 total yards. Brady Cook threw for 218 yards with a pair of touchdowns, including a 16-yard strike to preseason All-American wideout Luther Burden II to open the game. Mizzou finished with nearly 500 yards and 30 first downs. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: A trio of Tigers transfers scored touchdowns Thursday: Ex-Clemson corner Toriano Pride Jr. had a 25-yard pick-six, while Mizzou’s new two-headed tailback tandem Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll both found pay-dirt.

The rest of the projected AP Top 25:

11. Miami (Last week: 19)

After Week 1, Mario Cristobal has to be feeling mighty happy with the potential ROI on the Hurricanes’ splashy transfer portal additions, as quarterback Cam Ward, tailback Damien Martinez and defensive end Tyler Baron led the way in a signature statement win at Florida. The Canes dominated the Gators 41-17, flexing on both sides of the football. The controlled both lines of scrimmage (especially in pass pro plus eight TFLs, three sacks) and led wire-to-wire turning a frenzied Swamp into a morgue. Ward finished with over 400 total yards and three scores becoming the first UM quarterback in at least 45 years to throw for more than 300 passing yards in his first start with the team, per Mark Long of the AP.

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Ward targeted slot receivers more than almost any P5 quarterback the last two seasons, and he might have the most optimal running-mate in Miami’s ‘Y’ Xavier Restrepo. The ACC’s leading returning wideout hauled in seven receptions for 112 yards and one score, with several ankle-breaking runs after the catch.

12. Utah (Last week: 12)

Welcome back, Cam Rising! The seventh-year senior made his triumphant return from a torn ACL against Penn State in the 2023 Rose Bowl by leading the Utes to five touchdowns in a 49-0 mashing of Southern Utah. Rising’s day was over early in the second quarter, going 10-of-15 with 254 yards and five touchdowns. His last score went to top tight end Brent Kuithe, who also missed most of the last two seasons with knee injuries. Kuithe hauled in three touchdowns, including an 11-yard score where he looked like Rob Gronkowski barreling through a trio of defenders. 

ONE THING TO KNOW: Dijon Stanley had 26 total yards in his freshman season, but the speedster led Utah in rushing (35 yards) and receiving (150 yards with two touchdowns), and head coach Kyle Whittingham said they’ll have a “special package” for him all season.

13. Tennessee (Last week: 15)

Hype-meter-go-boom! After an offseason full of buzz, Nico Iamaleava lived up to the billing in his 2024 debut by setting a Tennessee record with 314 passing yards in the first half of the Vols’ 69-3 splattering of FCS Chattanooga. The 5-star redshirt freshman went 22-of-28 with three scores before watching the rest of rout from the sidelines in the second half.  Josh Heupel’s offense got off to a blazing start, as Dont’e Thornton hauled in two touchdowns, while Dylan Sampson (one of the more underrated ‘backs in the SEC) rolled up 124 yards and three touchdowns (10.1 yards per carry) — all in the first half. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Vols emptied out the offensive depth chart against the lowly Mocs, as 14 different players recorded a reception and eight had at least one rush.

14. Oklahoma (Last week: 16)

Jackson Arnold dazzled in his first-career regular-season start, as the former 5-star sophomore threw four touchdowns in less than three quarters in the Sooners’ 51-3 rout over Temple. Arnold finished with 141 yards on 17 of 25 passing — doing so while working with a shorthanded offensive unit. Already without top wideout Nic Anderson and offensive tackle Jake Taylor to start the game, the Sooners lost wideout Jalil Farrooq to a broken foot in the first quarter and then saw SMU transfer center Branson Hickman exit with an injury in the first half. Still, Arnold showed immediate chemistry with Purdue transfer Deion Burks, who caught three scores. Oklahoma also rolled up 220 yards rushing and forced six turnovers (four fumbles).

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Sooners’ overhauled offensive line (five new starters) struggled to protect Arnold at times (four sacks allowed), which is why they were awful on third down (1-of-12) despite the blowout win. Their lone conversion didn’t come until late in the fourth quarter. 

15. USC (Last week: 23)

Lincoln Riley didn’t want to play LSU in the opener, but he ended up scoring the biggest win of his career as the Trojans’ head coach. In a ping-pong affair in Las Vegas, Woody Marks scored the go-ahead touchdown in the final eight seconds to give USC a 27-20 win. New starting quarterback Miller Moss was outstanding, throwing for 378 yards and one touchdown. Moss was frequently harassed (multiple pressures, two sacks), but he showed great poise in the pocket and consistently sprayed the ball around to 10 different targets. USC’s defense allowed 10 explosive plays, but D’Anton Lynn’s new unit was excellent situationally — stoning LSU on several third-and-shorts late and getting a fourth-down stop deep in the red zone on LSU’s opening drive.

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Trojans wideout Kyron Hudson holds the poll position for catch of the year with an homage to Odell Beckham Jr. — making a ridiculous one-handed snag over two defenders and controlling the ball when he did the turf.

16. Oklahoma State (Last week: 17)

Behind Ollie Gordon’s latest 100-yard, two-touchdown rushing game, the Cowboys dispatched the top FCS team in the nation with a 44-20 final over South Dakota State. Seventh-year senior quarterback Alan Bowman had 267 yards passing with three touchdowns, including a short toss that Gordon turned into a 22-yard receiving score. The Pokes’ defense allowed some chunk plays and nearly 400 yards, but Bryan Nardo’s bend-but-don’t-break unit came up with timely plays on third (3 of 13) and fourth downs (0-4).

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Cowboys snapped the Jackrabbits’ 29-game winning streak. The two-time defending FCS champs had not lost a game since a 7-3 defeat against Iowa in September of 2022.

17. Kansas State (Last week: 18)

Breaking in a slew of newcomers on both sides of the ball, the Wildcats had a bit of a ho-hum 41-6 over FCS UT Martin. Chris Klieman’s team was never threatened, but they leaned on their defense until Avery Johnson and KSU’s offense finally got going. The former blue-chip recruit had a pair of touchdown passes but also a bad INT. Stud tailback DJ Giddens had another big night though with 124 yards on just 13 carries — good for 9.5 per rush. K-State’s defense harassed the Skyhawks’ offensive line for 11 tackles for loss and four sacks. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Despite blocking a punt for a touchdown, Kansas State’s special teams — which were bad for most of 2023 — again showed signs of concerning warts in Week 1. They fumbled a kickoff return. Had a kickoff go out of bounds for a penalty and botched a punt return that ceded valuable field position. 

18. Iowa (Last week: 25)

With head coach Kirk Ferentz serving a one-game suspension, the Hawkeyes blanked Illinois State 40-0 — cashing in on another under! Iowa’s offense, which ranked last in scoring in 2023, looked a lot like the same unit under Brian Ferentz for most of the first half until Cade McNamara engineered a late field goal drive. The Hawkeyes then carried that momentum into the second half, scoring five touchdowns — something they did just once all of last season. Phil Parker’s defense pitched another shutout, holding the Redbirds to under 200 total yards with three takeaways.

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Iowa’s wide receivers combined for three total touchdowns for the entire 2023 season — and the Hawkeyes’ receivers had three scores in the win over Illinois State.

19. Arizona (Last week: 21)

In head coach Brent Brennan‘s debut, the Wildcats won an offensive slug-fest against New Mexico, overcoming an early deficit to roll 61-39. Star wideout Tetairoa McMillan answered any offseason doubts about his availability (he missed all of spring practice with a mysterious leg injury and barely participated in fall camp) with an electric performance: 10 catches for 304 yards and four touchdowns. Arizona’s defense had next to no answers for New Mexico’s offense, so McMillian’s ridiculous stat-line wasn’t a bunch of late-game padding. The Lobos bizarrely refused to bracket or double-team McMillan, so quarterback Noah Fifita (422 yards and four scores) spammed his favorite target over and over again for explosive plays. The Wildcats’ defense did come up with a couple of interceptions in the second half to put away New Mexico.

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: How crazy was McMillan’s performance? He became the first player in college football history to average 30.0 yards per reception with four touchdowns on 10 catches for over 300 yards. 

20. Kansas (Last week: 22)

It took the Jayhawks about 20 minutes to get going, but after some early-season jitters (and turnovers), Kansas scored four times in the second quarter in its 48-3 win over FCS Lindenwood. Led by one of the top duos in the Big 12, Devin Neal (112 yards on just eight carries with two touchdowns) and Daniel Hishaw Jr. (66 yards and one score) paved the way for 330 rushing yards. Quarterback Jalon Daniels had a miscommunication interception in the first half but rebounded to finish 9-of-15 for 148 yards and one score. Star corner Mello Dotson had a 33-yard pick-six, setting a KU record with his third-career interception returned for a touchdown. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: By playing Thursday night, Kansas head coach Lance Leipold said his team would alter its practice schedule for the Week 2 matchup against Illinois. The Jayhawks are taking advantage of a couple extra days of rest and then will practice Monday — typically an off-day during the season.

21. Texas A&M (Last week: 20)

The Aggies fought valiantly at home, but their offense couldn’t muster enough juice to outlast Notre Dame in a 23-13 loss in Mike Elko’s debut. Texas A&M needs more from quarterback Conner Weigman and his receivers, who were dreadful for most of the night. After missing most of the 2023 season, Weigman finished with just 100 yards passing and two turnovers — failing to complete 50% of his passes (12 of 30). The Aggies’ offensive line struggled in both pass pro and run blocking (3.3 yards per carry) — a real concern with SEC play starting in two weeks. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Texas A&M’s defense wilted late but Nic Scourton, Shemar Turner and Scoobie Williams flashed all sorts of upside for nearly four quarters Saturday. The Aggies had seven TFLs and five quarterback hurries despite a zero-sack performance.

22. LSU (Last week: 13)

We’re doing this again, huh LSU? The Tigers lost a third-straight opener under Brian Kelly — as a favorite all three times, too — falling to USC 27-20 after allowing a touchdown inside the final 10 seconds. LSU had plenty of welcomed sights Sunday in Las Vegas (Blake Baker’s defense certainly looked improved, John Emery came out of nowhere to run hard), but quarterback Garrett Nussmeier got out-dueled by Miller Moss late, the defensive turned into 2023 LSU on USC’s final drive and its highly-touted offensive line wilted in the fourth quarter. Kelly went on a postgame rant about how his team lacked “a killer instinct” but that’s a byproduct of the head coach? No?

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: LSU committed 10 penalties for 99 yards — with a pair of unsportsmanlike conduct flags setting up USC touchdowns. 

23. Georgia Tech (Last week unranked)

The Yellowjackets car bomb’d Florida State and then avoided an Irish hangover by returning from Dublin by soundly beating Georgia State 34-12 on Saturday. The Bees rolled up 500 yards of offense, with quarterback Haynes King totaling over 300 yards and three touchdowns. Senior wideout Malik Rutherford had a career-afternoon, setting highs in receptions (seven) and yards (131) while scoring his first touchdown in 2024.

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Georgia Tech’s defense was shaky at times against the Panthers (11.1 yards per pass allowed), but the Bees were excellent on third down (3 of 12) and had two key fourth-down stops, too — including one that held GSU out of the end zone on its opening drive.

24 Louisville (Last week: Unranked)

The Cardinals demolished FCS Austin Peay 62-0, as Jeff Brohm’s haul of newcomers (transfers and freshman) got going immediately. Tyler Shough averaged nearly 10.0 yards per attempt with four touchdown passes, while ex-Alabama wideout Ja’Corey Brooks had seven catches for 83 yards and a touchdown and former San Diego State tight end Mark Redman also caught a touchdown. Meanwhile, freshman tailback Issac Brown had 123 yards on just five carries — including a 77-yard touchdown run. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Louisville’s defense came to play in Week 1, too, holding the Governors to just 106 total yards. The Cards had 17 havoc plays — with seven sacks and a fumble recovery for a scoop-and-score.

25. Clemson (Last week: 14)

Behind the likes of Peter Woods and Barrett Carter, the Tigers’ defense held up for two quarters before crumbling in the second half of a 34-3 whipping against No. 1 Georgia. Clemson’s static offense resembled the same plodding, putt-putt attack it’s been the last few seasons, as Phil Mafah had little room to run (59 yards on 16 carries) and quarterback Cade Klubnik never looked comfortable (18 of 29 for 142 yards, one interception, sacked twice). The Tigers had just 188 total yards and averaged only 4.2 yards per attempt. Dabo Swinney’s team will need to rebound quickly, as App. State is on deck in Week 2.

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: For the second-straight game, Clemson has failed to score a touchdown against Georgia. The Tigers had just three points in a 10-3 loss in 2021, and once again only managed a field goal Saturday.

Projected to drop out: No. 10 Florida State, No. 23 NC State