College Football Rankings: Predicting the Preseason AP Poll Top 25

A week from Monday, the always highly-anticipated Preseason AP Top 25 Poll will be released. Despite the College Football Playoff committee having the ultimate say in the sport’s postseason, the AP Poll continues to hold an outsized weight in the perception of how teams are viewed throughout the season. 

During the regular season, Associated Press voters release their rankings each Sunday afternoon. So let’s have some fun and predict what the 2024 Preseason AP Top 25 Rankings will look like next week.

Notably, this isn’t my preseason Top 25. My rankings may not line up with the minds of the AP voters, who historically lean on blue-bloods, SEC schools as back-fillers in the Top 25, returning quarterbacks and offseason hype teams. 

So with that, the 2024 Preseason AP Poll Top 25:

1. Ohio State

The Buckeyes took home the crown of offseason champions, and while all eyes are on the ultimate prize in January, the first goal is reclaiming the Big Ten title — which means avenging a three-game losing streak to Michigan. Even with some uncertainty around Will Howard at quarterback, the rest of the roster might have the best combination of talent, depth and experience in the country.

2. Georgia

With quarterback Carson Beck, a loaded unit of playmakers and a defense chalked with experience and blue-chip talent, the Bulldogs have a strong case to be the top-ranked team in the country. They’re highly motivated to get back to the national title game after seeing their three-peat hopes dashed in a loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. This is a program that hasn’t lost a regular-season game in three years, but I think a large swath of AP Voters will penalize Kirby Smart’s team for another rash of ugly off-season headlines.

3. Texas

The Longhorns sucked up all the oxygen at SEC Media Days, as the league’s newcomer is looking to maintain its momentum after a breakthrough 2023 season. Steve Sarkisian has a team not only capable of winning the conference in Year 1 — but delivering Texas its first national title in nearly 20 years. One X-factor for Hook’em? Can quarterback Quinn Ewers make the leap from good to great — all while incorporating a whole new set of weapons (Alabama wideout Isaiah Bond, Houston wideout Matthew Golden).

4. Oregon 

Bo Nix and Troy Franklin are out and in steps Dillon Gabriel and Evan Stewart, and the expectation in Eugene is that the Ducks shouldn’t skip a beat this fall — even in their move to the Big Ten. Thanks to an audacious NIL arm (thank you, Phil Knight), Oregon has assembled a MonStars-type roster with Top 5 recruiting classes and marquee transfer additions. While Ohio State is the Big Ten favorite, the Ducks host the Buckeyes in October and could absolutely win the conference.

5. Alabama

In a single offseason cycle, the Tide went from a potentially overlooked and underrated team to one most expect to contend for the SEC title and a playoff spot. While the loss of Nick Saban is still impossible to quantify, there’s not-so-quiet optimism that Kalen DeBoer will deliver results immediately. The Tide’s roster lost a lot from last season’s run to the playoff, but they made some shrewd portal additions and return one of the most electrifying playmakers in quarterback Jalen Milroe.

6. Notre Dame

Year 3 for a Notre Dame head coach? No pressure, Marcus Freeman. The Fighting Irish have a sneaky deep 2024 roster and their schedule is as friendly as it ever will be with multiple games against Service Academies and their first-ever FCS opponent. Notre Dame’s offense should be improved this fall with the return of Mike Denbrock as OC, and upgrades at receiver (Clemson’s Beaux Collins and FIU’s Kris Mitchell) and quarterback (Duke’s Riley Leonard). A run to the 12-team playoff should be a minimum for the Irish this fall.

7. Ole Miss

The behind-the-napkin-math on the 2024 season for the Rebels is thus: Huge NIL roster retention + major moves in the portal + a posh schedule (by SEC standards) = legitimate SEC Championship aspirations and CFP goals. Lane Kiffin is on record that this his most talented team he’s ever coached, so can Ole Miss deliver on an all-in season? Can the Rebels capitalize on a possible historic season?

8. Michigan 

The Wolverines are transitioning from the Jim Harbaugh era to the Sherrone Moore regime, yet despite all the changes in Ann Arbor, Michigan still has a team capable of contending for the Big Ten. Or so we think? The defense returns likely first-round picks in Will Johnson, Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham and added key pieces in the secondary including UNLV safety Ricky Johnson. But what about the offense? Is Alex Orji the answer at quarterback? Can Donovan Edwards fill the major shoes leftover by Blake Corum?

9. Penn State

Same question, different year: Can Penn State finally break through and truly contend for a championship (Big Ten and national)? The 12-team playoff was created precisely to give programs like Penn State a better chance at a championship, but that means James Franklin & Co., must start winning some games as slight underdogs. The Nittany Lions’ defense projects to be elite again, so any ceilings shattered will be determined by the growth of quarterback Drew Allar under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. 

10. Florida State

Mike Norvell continues to flip FSU’s roster by finding plug-and-play fits from the portal. The Seminoles lost a lot from last year’s ACC title team, but they simply reloaded with the likes of DJ Uiagalelei (Oregon State) at quarterback, edge rusher Marvin Jones (Georgia), nickel Earl Little (Alabama) and linebacker Shawn Murphy (Alabama). The offense may be more run-heavy in 2024, and the defense should remain potent with the transfers plus returning stars like edge Patrick Payton, corner Azareye’h Thomas and linebacker DJ Lundy. The team’s ceiling hinges on Uiagalelei’s play at quarterback. Will he sink or swim in his return to the ACC?

11. Missouri 

The Tigers have the makeup of a CFP contender this fall, as Missouri’s boosters pounced on a potential all-in season with major NIL roster investments. The defense saw several key players exit for the NFL, so the Tigers supplemented the depth chart with additions like Georgia edge Darris Smith, Miami linebacker Corey Flagg Jr., Clemson corner Toriano Pride and Florida lineman Chris McClellan. How they will deal with the loss of DC Blake Baker remains to be seen, though. The good news is Mizzou’s offense should be among the best in the country with quarterback Brady Cook and a deep crop of wideouts (headlined by Luther Burden) and tailbacks (namely transfers Marcus Carroll and Nate Noel). 

12. LSU

The Tigers are in a curious spot entering Brian Kelly’s third season in Baton Rouge. The exceeded expectations in 2022, making the SEC Championship, only to be letdown by a porous defense and wasting a Heisman Trophy season from quarterback Jayden Daniels in 2023. They’ve suffered significant departures to the NFL, and yet, the program’s ceiling is still high will all the blue-chip talent remaining. Kelly significantly upgraded LSU’s defensive staff (Blake Baker, Bo Davis), but is the personnel good enough to overcome a likely drop-off offensively?

13. Tennessee 

After a mostly quiet offseason, the Vols have become one of the buzzier teams entering 2024. Nico (Iamaleava) Mania has yet to explode, but there’s a growing belief the former 5-star should flourish immediately as Tennessee’s starter in Josh Heupel’s QB-friendly system. The Vols’ receiver room should be much improved this fall (notable additions include Tulane’s Chris Brazwell and 5-star freshman Mike Matthews), but can the same be said about their secondary? With James Pearce off the edge and four senior tackles, Tennessee has one of the best DLs in the country, so even a serviceable secondary would give Heupel his best defense to date in Knoxville.

14. Clemson 

Despite Dabo Swinney’s complete disgust with the transfer portal, there’s still plenty to like with the Tigers in 2024. The defense remains stocked with NFL talent, especially in the front-seven with linebacker Barrett Carter and rusher Peter Woods. Tailback Phil Mafah is also back after leading Clemson in rushing in 2023. The Tigers’ ACC (and CFP hopes) hinge on the rapid development of a pair of blue-chip freshmen wideouts (TJ Moore and Bryant Wesco), as well as a real ascension from quarterback Cade Klubnik, who has yet to live up to his 5-star billing.

15. Oklahoma

If the Sooners had Texas’ schedule, Brent Venables’ team would be seen as a surefire playoff squad in Year 1 in the SEC. Instead, OU may have to settle for playoff spoiler with a slate that includes six preseason Top 13 teams. Former 5-star recruit Jackson Arnold has star potential, but the sophomore quarterback will need to be supported by an offensive line that features five new starters and a new play-caller in former North Texas head coach Seth Littrell.

16. Utah

The Utes recently renamed defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley as the program’s next head-coach-in-waiting, so could 2024 be Kyle Whittingham’s swan song season in yet another new conference? The longtime Utah head coach has led the program to conference titles in the Mountain West and Pac-12, and with seventh-year senior quarterback Cam Rising back, Whittingham’s team is among the favorites to win the Big 12 this fall. The Utes also bring back injured tight end Brant Kuithe and tailback Micah Bernard, as well as a likely Top 25 defense nationally.

17. Kansas State

The Wildcats will battle Utah, in-state rival Kansas, Arizona and others for the Big 12 title — and a coveted Top-4 seed in the College Football Playoff. The program chose to move on from Will Howard and hand the keys of the offense to former 5-star quarterback Avery Johnson. Kansas State brings back a lot of pieces off last year’s nine-win team (1,200-yard tailback DJ Giddens, six starters on a defense that led the league in takeaways), but it does have to break in a new OC (former Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells) and three new starters on the offensive line. 

18. Arizona 

Former San Jose State head coach Brent Brennan is looking to continue the Wildcats’ momentum from the last two seasons after Jedd Fisch departed for Washington late in the offseason. The former Pac-12 member was able to hold onto star quarterback Noah Fifita, wideout Tetairoa McMillan, corner Tacario Davis and the bulk of an offensive line that should be among the best in the Big 12 this season, giving Arizona a legitimate chance to contend for the conference championship in Year 1. Brennan did have to hit the portal aggressively after the program experienced some real attrition following the coaching change (11 spring transfers)

19. Texas A&M

With an upgraded coaching staff and a slew of plug-and-play starters from the transfer portal, the Aggies remain in win-now mode in Mike Elko’s first season in College Station. The former Duke head coach delivered instant results immediately in Durham — and now he has a much better roster with NFL talent like Purdue edge transfer Nic Scourton, former 5-star prospects Conner Weigman, Shemar Turner, Shemar Stewart and Florida linebacker Scooby Williams. Texas A&M probably lacks the depth to win the SEC in 2024, but if Weigman & Co., stay healthy, the Aggies could be a sneaky darkhorse playoff team with a favorable schedule. 

20. Miami 

If not for Ohio State, Texas or Ole Miss, Miami might be seen as the offseason hype-machine team. The program made a major financial investment in Mario Cristobal (10-year contract), and it made sure its former alum has no excuses in Year 3 with a splashy portal haul that included Wazzu quarterback Cam Ward, Oregon State tailback Damien Martinez, Michigan State defensive tackle, Simeon Barrow, Marshall corner D’Yoni Hill and Houston receiver Sam Brown, among others. The Hurricanes are just 12-13 under Cristobal, but they’re among the favorites to win their first (?!?!?!?) ACC Championship in 2024.

21. NC State 

Dave Doeren is banking on a transfer portal shopping spree (quarterback Grayson McCall, tailbacks Jordan Waters and Hollywood Smothers and receivers Noah Rogers and Wesley Grimes) jumpstarting the Wolfpack’s toothless offense for his first 10-win season in Raleigh. NC State has a budding star in sophomore wideout KC Concepcion (10 touchdowns in 2023), and now he should have some help. The Wolfpack will miss linebacker Peyton Wilson, but the defense should remain salty with the likes of edge Davin Vann, corner Aydan White and several additions from the portal. 

22. Oklahoma State

In a mosh-pit of Big 12 contenders, the Pokes can stake a claim as good as any with a roster that ranks in the Top 5 nationally in returning production. The league’s runner-up in 2023 brings back seventh-year quarterback Alan Bowman, Heisman Trophy contender Ollie Gordon at tailback and a host of playmakers including wideouts Brennan Presley and Rashod Owens and Oklahoma transfer Gavin Freeman. Nick Martin is one of the better linebackers in the Big 12, and Collin Oliver is a dynamic presence off the edge. Mike Gundy is the dean of Big 12 coaches, and with Texas and OU now in the SEC, Oklahoma State could emerge as the top program in the conference if it can make a return run to Dallas. 

23. USC 

It’s easy to forget that the Trojans were one win away from the College Football Playoff in 2022, but that seems like a long time ago for Lincoln Riley’s program. The former OU head coach made wholesale changes to his defensive staff following a disappointing Year 2, and now Riley enters the Big Ten without a Heisman Trophy contender at quarterback (out Caleb Williams, in Miller Moss). The schedule, especially early, isn’t very forgiving (opener vs. LSU, Michigan and Wisconsin in September), so the Trojans better hope a new-look defense coalesces quickly. 

24. Iowa

Led by senior linebackers Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson, the Hawkeyes might have the oldest (and among the most experienced) defenses in the country in 2024 — so likely chalk up another Top 10 unit from Phil Parker. Iowa finally parted ways with Brian Ferentz, so if new OC Tim Lester can move the needle at all offensively (sneaky spring transfer portal addition in Northwestern starting quarterback Brendan Sullivan), then the Hawkeyes could crack the top tier of the Big Ten.

25. Kansas

The Jayhawks rank near the top of the country in returning production, and that includes senior quarterback Jalon Daniels, who only played sporadically in 2023. The dual-threat talent has missed more than a dozen games the last two seasons, but when healthy, he’s been one of the top players in the Big 12 and gives the Jayhawks a chance to make a storied run to the Big 12 title. Kansas has a two-headed tandem at tailback (Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw), and while the program will miss OC Andy Kotelnicki (now at Penn State), the offense should remain one of the best in the league this fall. 

Honorable Mention: Louisville, Virginia Tech, Liberty, Iowa State, Nebraska