College Football Rankings: Projecting AP Poll Top 25 after Week 10

Two days after Halloween, the Saturday Scaries came for the 2024 season. Week 10 had all manor of chaos, upsets and survivals that will dramatically shakeup the AP Poll Top 25 Rankings on Sunday. 

Oregon is still the best team in the country, and Indiana is still a wagon (can the Hoosiers finally crack the Top 10?, but that’s about that was was clear Saturday. 

Ohio State slipped past Penn State in a Big Ten rock fight between two Top-5 teams, while Georgia, Miami and Tennessee all needed second-half rallies to remain in the Top 10. 

Others weren’t so lucky. Clemson got waxed at home by a thought-to-be-dead Louisville, while Texas A&M got the business at South Carolina a week after its delirious comeback against LSU. 

The Big 12 carnage also finally came, as Iowa State and Kansas State were both upset by two of the league’s bottom-feeders. 

So the latest AP Poll Top 25 projection stand to feature all sorts of movement and shakeups.

Several teams in the back-half of the rankings were on a bye week, so jockeying for spots this week was tricky. If Week 10 was the opening act after intermission, then the final few acts of the 2024 regular-season stand to be one crazy play.

Here’s how I think the Week 10 AP Poll Top 25 could look come Sunday morning:

1. Oregon (Last week: 1)

The Ducks started November exactly how they ended October: With a businesslike statement against a new Big Ten foe — this time cruising past Michigan 38-17 in the Big House. Behind Dillon Gabriel (one passing touchdown, one 23-yard score just before halftime) and Noah Whittington (two scores), Oregon jumped out to a 28-10 lead before playing out the strings in the second half. Jordan James had another big game (117 yards and one touchdown) and Oregon’s defense held the Wolverines to just 101 yards rushing on 28 carries. 

The Ducks continue to look like the undisputed No. 1 team in the country, and they should be at the top of the first College Football Playoff Rankings on Tuesday. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The win might’ve been costly for Oregon, which saw star wideout Tez Johnson exit the game in the first quarter with a collarbone injury. Johnson leads the team in all receiving categories, but in his place, Traeshon Holden had a season-high 149 yards on six catches. 

2. Ohio State (Last week: 3)

The Buckeyes answered the bell in a Top-5 showdown against Penn State, suffocating the Nittany Lions with timely defense and a tough makeshift offensive line in a 20-13 Big Ten slobberknocker. Ohio State trailed 10-0 early after Will Howard’s first pass went for a pick-six, but the Pennsylvania native rallied with two touchdown passes and later overcame fumbling a would-be-touchdown into the end zone. The Buckeyes have now won eight-straight games against PSU.

Down to their third-string left tackle, the Buckeyes were able to grind out 176 rushing yards. Their defense didn’t allow a touchdown, either, stopping Penn State twice in the red zone for zero points. Corner Davison Igbinosun had a crazy, athletic interception to take the ball away from Trey Wallace, and then on PSU’s final drive in the fourth quarter, Ohio State stoned the Nittany Lions four-straight times from inside the 5-yard line. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Buckeyes entered the day a bottom-10 team nationally in run-success rate on 3rd- and 4th-and-short (65%), but they were a perfect 4-of-4 for short-yardage runs against Penn State — including two Will Howard conversions on the final drive to kill the clock.

3. Georgia (Last week: 2)

The Bulldogs continues to mostly win ugly, scoring twice in the fourth quarter within 60 seconds to stave off a 34-20 upset-bid by rival Florida. Carson Beck, who had three more awful interceptions, hit Dom Lovett on a blitz-beater to allow UGA to re-take the lead, and then two plays after CJ Allen a had pick, freshman Dwight Phillips Jr. scored on a jet-sweep to ice the game. 

The Bulldogs overcame another really poor performance by Beck — his third-consecutive multi-interception game. The senior finished with 309 yards and two scores but the mistakes remain alarming. Georgia was able to resiliently rally partly because Florida lost quarterback DJ Lagway to a “significant hamstring injury,” which forced a gritty and inspired Gators team to turn to third-string backup Aidan Walters. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Both teams were beset by injuries Saturday, as Georgia played three quarters without starting tailback Trevor Etienne. The former UF tailback had seven carries for 31 yards before leaving the game with a rib injury. Georgia turned to freshman Nate Frazier (82 yards and a score) and walk-on Cash Jones (three catches for 37 yards and a score). 

4. Miami (Last week: 5)

The Hurricanes continue to be the wildest, most enjoyable watch in the country — because fireworks are guaranteed no matter what unit is on the field. In another second-half comeback, Miami dropped a 50-burger on former head coach Manny Diaz, beating Duke 53-31. Cam Ward offered up his latest Heisman Trophy tape, throwing for 400 yards and five touchdowns to erase a double-digit deficit. The Wazzu transfer connected with Xavier Restrepo for three scores including icing the game with a 66-yard strike to give Miami some much-needed breathing room.

The ‘Canes defense allowed Duke to go on a 28-3 run before their defense forced four takeaways in the second half (three picks and a fumble). Miami also took advantage of a questionable squib kick, with it all resulting in  36-3 run that spanned just over 15 minutes. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Miami, which was ranked in the Top 5 for the first time since 2017, will move up the rankings with Penn State’s loss to Ohio State. 

5. Texas (Last week: 6)

Idle. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Will a week off help Quinn Ewers get right and rediscover Texas’ vertical passing game? Since returning from his oblique injury, the Longhorns’ quarterback has not looked like the guy who carved up Michigan’s defense. Ewers was just ok in the win over Oklahoma, had a nightmarish game against Georgia and then almost exclusively threw short swing passes or screens (just 4 of 10 on throws over 10 yards) against Vandy.  

6. Penn State (Last week: 3)

Another big game, another afternoon of what-ifs for James Franklin’s team. Penn State coughed up an early 10-0 lead against Ohio State, as the Nittany Lions failed to score a single offensive touchdown in another disappointing loss — this time 20-13. Franklin is now 1-10 against the Buckeyes (and 3-18 against Top 10 teams). Once again, Penn State’s defense did its job in a big rivalry game (a pick-six, forced fumble at the goal line and three sacks), but the Nittany Lions’ offense was held to just 270 yards. Andy Kotelnicki’s ‘Oreo Blizzard’ offense rarely scared Ohio State with all its eye-candy and mis-direction. Drew Allar struggled again in a big spot, but he wasn’t done many favors as Penn State’s wideouts could never get consistently open.

Still, the Nittany Lions had a chance to tie the game inside the final five minutes, but after two explosive plays to Tyler Warren, they went 0-fer from inside the 5-yard line to get stoned at the goal line.

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: For the second-straight season, Penn State was held to under 275 yards against Ohio State. It was only the second-time in four seasons that an Andy Kotelnicki offense didn’t score a touchdown, either — both against Jim Knowles’ defenses (2021 Oklahoma State, 2024 Ohio State).

7. Indiana (Last week: 13)

The Hoosiers dusted off their first deficit of the 2024 season, scoring 47 unanswered points after trailing 10-0 after the first quarter at Michigan State. They won their ninth-straight game by double-digits, as quarterback Kurtis Rourke returned to action from his one-game absence by going 19 of 29 for 263 yards and four touchdowns. 

After trailing for the first time all season, Indiana responded with three consecutive touchdown drives, and their defense started to totally heat-up Aidan Chiles and MSU’s offense. They finished the game with two picks (both by safety Amare Ferrell), seven sacks and 15 tackles for loss. The Spartans were held to -36 yards rushing. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: How wild is this season by Curt Cignetti’s team? Indiana is 9-0 for the first time in program history. The Hoosiers began playing football in 1887, and this marks just their third nine-win season of all-time.

8. Tennessee (Last week: 7)

The Vols have done their best ‘Georgia lite’ impression this season, struggling offensively for 30 minutes before riding their defense and star player (Dylan Sampson) to another ugly win. Tennessee 28. Kentucky 18. Tennessee finally scored a first-half touchdown for the first time in four games, but it still trailed 10-3 to start the third quarter. 

Then Sampson took over. The SEC’s top tailback scored his leading 18th and 19th touchdowns in the second half, finishing with a 142 rushing yards. The Vols’ defense harassed two Kentucky QBs, recording three sacks, two picks and double-digit pressures while allowing just a single scoring drive in the third and fourth quarters. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: With Texas A&M losing Saturday, Tennessee now has an opening to make it to the SEC Championship if it can handle business against Mississippi State and Vanderbilt and upset Georgia in Athens.

9. Notre Dame (Last week: 8)

Idle. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Irish have scored at least 31 points in four-straight games, and their defense has allowed just three scoring drives in the last three first-halves.

10. BYU (Last week: 9)

Idle. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The early Holy War lookahead line between BYU and Utah is the Cougs favored by 4.5-point in Salt Lake City — which has to be a wild swing from where odds-makers would’ve set the spread during the preseason when the Utes were the favorites to win the Big 12. 

11. Boise State (Last week: 15)

With all eyes on Heisman Trophy hopeful Ashton Jeanty, Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen threw for a career-high 307 yards and four touchdowns in a 56-24 beatdown of San Diego State. With the Aztecs throwing nine guys regularly in the box, Jeanty was bottled up before a big-second half. After going for 37 yards before halftime, the tailback finished with 149 yards (his eighth-straight 100-yard game) and two scores. Boise State finished with over 540 yards, while its defense forced two takeaways and held SDSU to just 2 of 14 on third downs.

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Broncos turned a 7-0 game late in the first quarter into a 28-0 rout minutes later thanks to a Madsen 19-yard touchdown pass, a 35-yard pick-six, another interception and a 14-yard score by Madsen at the start of the second quarter.

12. SMU (Last weekend: 20)

Is the Pony Express headed to Charlotte? The runway is certainly there for the Mustangs, who galloped past undefeated Pitt 48-25 to remain perfect in ACC play. SMU dominated the Panthers, racing out to a 31-3 lead at halftime behind a host of big plays, broken tackles and excellent defense. Kevin Jennings finished with 306 yards and two passing scores (12.2 yards per attempt), while Brashard Smith ran wild (161 yards and two scores) on a stingy Pitt defense. 

Smith broke loose for a 71-yard touchdown one play after Pitt missed a field goal to cut SMU’s lead to a one-score lead in the second quarter — opening up the floodgates for the rout. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: SMU is now 5-0 in ACC play and Rhett Lashlee’s team will be favorites against Boston College, Virginia and Cal to end the season. 

13. Alabama (Last week: 14)

Idle. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Crimson Tide have two losses at the start of November for the first time since 2007, but they still have a path to the playoff with a game at No. 16 LSU next Saturday night. 

14. Iowa State (Last week: 10)

The Cyclones were stunned 23-22 at home against Texas Tech, allowing the Red Raiders to drive 71 yards in the final 90 seconds to end their best start in school history. Tahj Brooks scored a 5-yard touchdown on a direct snap with 20 seconds left after Rocco Becht had just given Iowa State its first lead of the game on a 44-yard touchdown throw. 

Iowa State simply left too many scoring opportunities on the field against the worst defense in the Big 12. It settled for four  field goals (making three) and also had a fumble deep in Texas Tech’s territory. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: With the loss, Iowa State might need to run the table — including winning vs. Kansas State at home in the regular-season finale — to clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game. 

15. Texas A&M (Last Week: 10)

There are no more undefeated teams in SEC play, as the Aggies went to South Carolina and got ambushed by the Gamecocks in a 44-20 rout. Texas A&M’s stout defensive line (ranked No. 1 in the SEC in rush defense) got run over by LaNorris Sellers (350 total yards and three scores) and Rocket Sanders (144 yards and two touchdowns), while Marcel Reed and the offense couldn’t replicate last week’s second-half magic by failing to convert two 4th-and-1s, throwing an interception and a late fumble to end all comeback hopes. 

Texas A&M didn’t record a sack for the first time all season, and now with two losses, the Aggies likely need to win out to stay in the College Football Playoff hunt. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Texas A&M lost star tailback Le’Veon Moss early in the first quarter to a leg injury and the SEC’s No. 3 rusher did not return — a potential huge blow for the Aggies the rest of the season. 

16. LSU (Last week: 16)

Idle. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Can the Tigers find a semblance of balance offensively over the final month of the season? LSU ranks 11th in the SEC in yards per rush (4.2) and last in the league in yards per game (115.3). Garrett Nussmeier and a host of playmakers should be the focal point of LSU’s offense, but as we saw against Texas A&M, the Tigers can become too predictable if they drop-back to pass on every down. 

17. Ole Miss (Last week: 19)

That’s the ‘Fun ‘N Gun’ Ole Miss offense everyone expected — and then some. In a 63-21 fireworks showcase at Arkansas, Jaxson Dart and Jordan Watkins combined for a record-setting day to keep the Rebels’ College Football Playoff hopes alive. Dart threw for a school-record 515 yards and six touchdowns — connecting with Watkins for a ridiculous 254 yards and five scores on eight catches (also Ole Miss records). The Rebels kickstarted the romp with a Princely Umanmielen strip-sack fumble score on the goal line, and then proceeded to hammer a solid Arkansas defense with haymakers. 

Dart had nine completions over 20 yards, including three 60+ yard touchdown passes.   

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Ole Miss continued its havoc ways defensively, too. Against two different Hogs quarterbacks, the Rebels recorded eight sacks, 13 tackles for loss and two forced fumbles. 

18: Army (Last week: 21)

The Black Knights came out of their bye week with a 20-3 win over Air Force to remain undefeated and move closer toward claiming the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy. They extended the nation’s longest winning-streak to 12, doing so without starting quarterback Bryson Daily, who missed the game due to an injury or illness. 

Without Daily, Army’s typically super-efficient offense really struggled (just 4 of 12 on 3rd-downs, 4.8 yards per carry), but Kanye Udoh led the way with 158 rushing yards and two touchdowns, while the Black Knights’ defense totally shutdown Air Force’s attack (209 total yards allowed, three interceptions).

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: With Indiana down 10-0 early at Michigan State, Army is now the only FBS team in the country yet to trail for a single minute. The Black Knights’ 12-game streak is also its best in 75 years. 

19. Washington State (Last weekend: 22)

Idle. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Sophomore quarterback John Mateer ranks No. 5 nationally in total offense (341.0 yards per game), and he’s accounted for 28 touchdowns this season. 

20. Clemson (Last week: 11)

Coming off six-straight wins and a bye week, Clemson suffered one of its most embarrassing home losses in the Dabo Swinney era. Peppered by four field goals and a couple big Isaac Brown runs, the Tigers fell to Louisville 33-21 — their first loss to the Cards ever. 

Clemson couldn’t get out of its way Saturday night, as the offense had six straight possessions without a scoring drive thanks to multiple stops in the red zone and two field goals getting blocked. Cade Klubnik came back down to earth (just 4.1 yards per attempt), and Phil Mafah didn’t get going until garbage time (two fourth-quarter touchdowns). The Tigers now need some help just to make it to Charlotte, as SMU and Miami remain unbeaten in ACC play.  

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Tigers schedule suddenly looks much more foreboding coming off the Louisville loss: Va. Tech is heating up, Pitt is playing for a ACC-tiebreaker and South Carolina just waxed Texas A&M.

21. Pitt (Last week: 18)

The Panthers’ seven-game winning streak was dashed in dispiriting fashion, getting trounced 48-25 at SMU in a matchup featuring two teams atop the ACC standings. Pitt’s usually stout, havoc-led defense had no answers for the Mustangs’ offense, as Pat Narduzzi’s team was undone by uncharacteristic missed tackles in the secondary, zero takeaways and too many explosive plays allowed. 

Pitt’s offense didn’t help much, either, as it coughed up the football four times — losing two. Eli Holstein returned to action, the quarterback was just 29 of 47 for 248 yards (5.3 per attempt) with one pick. Desmond Reid and Pitt’s rushing attack was totally grounded, too, going for just 103 yards on 32 carries.

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Panthers (who were trying to go 8-0 for the first time since 1981) will need help to make it to the ACC Championship, but a win over Clemson at home in two weeks could prove to be a critical tiebreaker. 

22. Kansas State (Last week: 17)

The Wildcats melted down in the fourth quarter at Houston, coughing up a two-score lead in a 24-19 loss to the Cougs. Kansas State’s Big 12 title hopes took a major hit with a second-conference loss. The deflating defeat was full of frustrating football, as Avery Johnson had two picks and averaged just 6.1 yards per attempt. Kansas State also had just 89 yards rushing, missed a PAT and saw its defense allow a former backup quarterback to scoot 41-yards for the winning touchdown run. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Wildcats’ 327 total yards was their worst offensive output since a loss to Texas in 2021.

23. Colorado (Last week: 23)

Idle.

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Travis Hunter’s Heisman Trophy campaign is kicking into high-gear. The current betting favorite won the Big 12 offensive and defensive player of the week last weekend and Hunter was on-set for ESPN’s College GameDay at Penn State on Saturday. 

24. Missouri (Last week: 25)

Idle.

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Can the Tigers come out of their bye with a plan to get wideout Luther Burden III more involved? The preseason All-American hasn’t caught a touchdown or recorded a 100-yard receiving game since mid-September. In the loss to Alabama, Burden had three catches for three yards. 

25. Vanderbilt (Last week: Unranked)

Crown the Commodores the Alabama State Champs. After upsetting the top-ranked Crimson Tide earlier this season, Vandy won at Auburn to move to 6-3 and become bowl eligible for the first time since 2018. The Legend of Diego Pavia continues to grow, as the transfer quarterback spearheaded the 17-7 upset. Pavia was just 9 of 22 for 143 yards, but he connected with Eli Stowers for a 4-yard score late in the fourth quarter on a drive that last nearly nine minutes. Vandy was initially forced to settle for a field goal, but Auburn roughed snapper, which extended the drive. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Diego Pavia is now 3-0 against Hugh Freeze, with two wins as the quarterback for New Mexico (one against Liberty, one against Auburn) and now a win for Vanderbilt. In the three games, Pavia has 11 total touchdowns and zero picks.

Projected to drop out: No. 23 Illinois