College Football Rankings: Projecting AP Poll Top 25 after Week 14

The closer the College Football Playoff gets the more shakeups we have in the AP Top 25, which can often be a predictor of sorts for the playoff rankings.

This week included some wild upsets and some miraculous escapes, ones that shook up the picture at the top of the poll.

There was Georgia‘s eight-overtime survival against Georgia Tech on Black Friday, an excellent nightcap after a fun day of football. Then there was drama right out of the gates on Saturday, with Michigan upending Ohio State.

The fun continued in the afternoon window, with Syracuse taking down Miami and putting the ‘Canes into a precarious position.

Let’s break down all the action and what it should mean for the AP Top 25 poll this week. Our projections below.

1. Oregon Ducks (12-0)

RESULT: W 49-21 vs Washington
It was a close contest for about 20 minutes, with the score 7-6 Oregon early in the second quarter. Then the Ducks exploded and put away the Huskies with ease. The Ducks scored three touchdowns in a 3:12 span of game time to take command. With the win in the books in the regular season finale, Oregon can now focus on the Big Ten title game against Penn State … with the winner earning a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.
NEXT UP: Big Ten Championship Game

2. Texas Longhorns (11-1) +1

RESULT: W 17-7 @ Texas A&M
A couple turnovers in the second half, including a long pick-six, as well as a blocked punt, made Saturday a nervous affair for Texas. But the defense stood stout all night and really limited Texas A&M in the renewal of one of college football’s most fierce rivalries. The win for Texas all but assures a College Football Playoff berth, as even with a loss in the SEC Championship Game against Georgia the Longhorns should remain well within the top 12 of the rankings. A win and Texas can secure a first-round bye.
NEXT UP: SEC Championship Game

3. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) +1

RESULT: W 44-7 vs Maryland
With Ohio State’s loss earlier in the day on Saturday, Penn State knew it could lock up a spot in the Big Ten title game with a win. So the Nittany Lions wasted little time messing around, pouring it on Maryland early with a 28-point second quarter. Now a chance at a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff is on the table for Penn State, which remains near the top of the AP Top 25 poll.
NEXT UP: Big Ten Championship Game

4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) +1

RESULT: W 49-28 @ USC
It was a tricky road test for Notre Dame as it sought to end its season with 11 wins, but the Fighting Irish were up to the challenge late. The defense delivered back-to-back pick-sixes to run away with things in the fourth quarter, surviving a tough road game. With no games left to play, Notre Dame should be in position to host a first-round playoff game.

5. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) +1

RESULT: W 44-42 vs Georgia Tech (8OT)
In one of the wildest games in recent memory, Georgia was pushed to the absolute brink by its in-state rival. Ultimately, the Bulldogs made one more play than the Yellow Jackets, holding on to win in eight overtimes. The win almost certainly secures a spot in the playoff for Georgia barring a disaster in the SEC Championship Game next week.
NEXT UP: SEC Championship Game

6. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) +1

RESULT: W 36-23 @ Vanderbilt
Tennessee was down 14-0 almost before it could blink, as the Commodores scored on the opening kickoff and then again before five minutes had even elapsed. The Volunteers just went to work and settled in. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava was sharp, throwing for 257 yards and four touchdowns in the win. Now Tennessee just gets to wait to see where it will slot into the College Football Playoff, virtually assured of a berth.

7. SMU Mustangs (11-1) +2

RESULT: W 38-6 vs California
SMU was dominant from start to finish in an easy win over California at home. The Mustangs led by 21 at the half and then coasted to an easy 38-6 win. Quarterback Kevin Jennings threw for 225 yards and two touchdowns. Now SMU advances to the ACC Championship Game, where it will face Clemson, not Miami, for the right to earn a first-round bye in the playoffs.
NEXT UP: ACC Championship Game

8. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) -6

RESULT: L 13-10 vs Michigan
Michigan did an excellent job limiting the Ohio State run game and quarterback Will Howard wasn’t able to make up the difference in a defensive-minded game. Howard threw two interceptions and the loss likely cost the Buckeyes either home-field advantage in the playoff opener or a first-round bye altogether. Ohio State will likely still make the playoff field, but it’ll be a more nervous Selection Sunday than it could have been.

9. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) +1

RESULT: W 66-0 vs Purdue
Indiana had the luxury of taking on one of the worst teams at the power conference level in the regular season finale, and the Hoosiers made sure they took full advantage early. It was 28-0 by halftime, with Indiana piling up more than 300 yards of total offense in the opening half. The Hoosiers remain in decent shape to earn a College Football Playoff berth but probably need to worry at least a little about bid-stealers in conference title games.

10. Boise State Broncos (11-1) +1

RESULT: W 34-18 vs Oregon State
What more can you say about Heisman Trophy candidate Ashton Jeanty at this point? He just continues to bulldoze defense after defense. In a win over Oregon State, Jeanty ran for 226 yards and a touchdown. Quarterback Maddux Madsen also threw for 195 yards and two scores and Boise State won comfortably to move to 11-1 on the season. All that stands in the way of a College Football Playoff berth is the Mountain West title game.
NEXT UP: Mountain West Championship Game

11. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) +2

RESULT: W 28-14 vs Auburn
It was an ugly win in the Iron Bowl for Alabama, but it was a win nonetheless. And with where Alabama is in the playoff picture, a win was everything. The Crimson Tide withstood three turnovers from quarterback Jalen Milroe, who made up for it by rushing for 104 yards and three scores. Now Alabama must endure a tough waiting game to see where it falls in the College Football Playoff rankings. The AP Top 25 could be a good early indicator.

12. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) +2

RESULT: W 49-7 @ Arizona
All the stars were out for Arizona State on rivalry week on the road against Arizona. Quarterback Sam Leavitt threw for 291 yards and three scores, while running back Cam Skattebo ran for 177 yards and three more scores. That was enough to plaster Arizona. Arizona State is clearly the cream of the crop rankings wise in the Big 12. How high can they get in the AP Top 25 rankings? We shall see, but don’t be surprised if they’re in playoff range. And now a trip to the Big 12 title game is clinched.
NEXT UP: Big 12 Championship Game

13. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) +3

RESULT: W 17-14 @ Clemson
South Carolina trailed for most of the game before finally getting a foothold in the fourth quarter. The Gamecocks simply leaned on quarterback LaNorris Sellers down the stretch and he absolutely delivered. A 20-yard touchdown run was enough to seal the deal, as the team’s defense then came away with an interception of Cade Klubnik in the final moments to slam the door shut for good. South Carolina has a shot at the playoffs at this point, having secured another solid win. It’ll be interesting to see how big a jump the Gamecocks make in this week’s AP Top 25. It could be considerable.

14. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) +1

RESULT: W 26-14 vs Mississippi State
Ole Miss struggled to get its footing in the early going against Mississippi State, flummoxed a bit by a scheme that kept quarterback Jaxson Dart in check. But the ground game answered, led by Ulysses Bentley IV. He had an 89-yard touchdown run to break things open, and the Rebels held on against the Bulldogs down the stretch to preserve what appeared to be somewhat slim playoff hopes. Now Ole Miss waits.

15. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) -7

RESULT: L 42-38 @ Syracuse
Miami kept getting into shootouts with ACC teams, relying on quarterback Cam Ward to bail it out of some tough spots. But in a game against Syracuse, it was the defense’s inability to get a stop late that cost the ‘Canes … and potentially even spoiled the team’s playoff hopes. At the very least, the ACC title game is now off the table, as Clemson will represent there against SMU. That means a first-round bye is no longer a possibility for Miami, which will be holding its breath entering Selection Sunday.

16. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2) +1

RESULT: W 29-21 vs Kansas State
After a back-and-forth opening stanza, Iowa State started to assert control in the contest in the second quarter, when it outscored its opponent 17-7. Kansas State had to chase the game from there, and a tough Iowa State defense made it an uphill climb. The win put the Cyclones in position to advance to the Big 12 Championship Game against Arizona State, where the potential to reach the College Football Playoff exists.
NEXT UP: Big 12 Championship Game

17. BYU Cougars (10-2) +2

RESULT: W 30-18 vs Houston
After taking a big early lead on Houston, BYU let off the gas a bit and made it an interesting contest. Ultimately, a forced fumble on a sack stopped a potential go-ahead drive by Houston and allowed BYU to stretch the lead out to two scores again. The Cougars hung on the rest of the way to secure the win, a ninth on the season. The win also determined the Big 12 title game representative, sending Iowa State to the conference championship.

18. Clemson Tigers (9-3) -6

RESULT: L 17-14 vs South Carolina
Clemson had its playoff chances and almost saw them dissipate in the late stages of a loss to South Carolina. The Tigers were sharp defensively through much of the contest but had no answer for LaNorris Sellers on the final drive, and that was the dagger. But because Miami went down later in the day, Clemson earned a berth in the ACC Championship Game and the potential to backdoor into the College Football Playoff.
NEXT UP: ACC Championship Game

19. UNLV Rebels (10-2) +2

RESULT: W 38-14 vs Nevada
UNLV got off to a strong start in a home date against Nevada, forcing a pair of first-half turnovers to set things up for an early onslaught. The Rebels led 24-7 at halftime and had already rushed for 165 yards in the contest by the break. The second half was more of the same. Now UNLV has clinched a spot in the Mountain West title game, where it will get a chance to play its way into the playoffs against Boise State.
NEXT UP: Mountain West Championship Game

20. Colorado Buffaloes (9-3) +3

RESULT: W 52-0 vs Oklahoma State
Colorado absolutely bulldozed Oklahoma State, jumping out to an early 21-0 lead in the opening quarter and never looking back. Quarterback Shedeur Sanders threw for 438 yards and five touchdowns in the win. The team’s ground game produced only 33 yards rushing, but it didn’t matter, as Colorado’s defense gave up only 147 total in the game. Colorado dropped considerably last week but should get a nice boost up this week’s AP Top 25 poll.

21. Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3) +1

RESULT: W 38-28 @ Northwestern
It wasn’t the cleanest performance from Illinois, as quarterback Luke Altmyer threw a pair of interceptions and the game was a little back and forth early on. But a strong ground game was the difference, as well as a defense that came away with three interceptions of the Northwestern quarterbacks. Illinois ran for 212 yards, led by Aidan Laughery‘s 172-yard, three-touchdown effort. A nice win to wrap up a quality regular season.

22. Missouri Tigers (9-3) +2

RESULT: W 28-21 vs Arkansas
On a frosty afternoon in CoMo, Missouri outlasted Arkansas in a game that came down to the final play. Arkansas couldn’t connect on a deep shot to end it, though, keeping Missouri in position to remain ranked in the AP Top 25. There isn’t a whole lot of other intrigue with the Tigers, as they don’t have a strong enough schedule to merit playoff mention. So it’s on to bowl season.

23. Army Black Knights (10-1) +2

RESULT: W 29-24 vs UTSA
Army quarterback Bryson Daily tied the American Athletic Conference record for single-season touchdowns, throwing for 190 yards and a score while rushing for two more in a close win over UTSA. The Black Knights continue their remarkable season and will likely hang tough in the AP Top 25 poll. Now it’s on to the AAC title game against Tulane.
NEXT UP: AAC Championship Game

24. Memphis Tigers (10-2) NR

RESULT: W 34-34 @ Tulane
Memphis played playoff spoiler by taking down a Tulane team that was entertaining hopes of becoming one of the top five conference champions. The Tigers converted 10 of 16 third-down attempts in the game, and that’ll win you a lot of contests. It was a well-rounded effort all around by the Tigers, which kept the Green Wave in check for much of the game. Good enough to sneak into the AP Top 25 this week? We think so.

25. Syracuse Orange (9-3) NR

RESULT: W 42-38 vs Miami
Syracuse had quietly put together some really good results this year — wins over Georgia Tech and UNLV — but Saturday’s showdown with Miami was the best yet. Quarterback Kyle McCord went off, throwing for 380 yards and three scores and outdueling Miami quarterback Cam Ward. That was enough to move the Orange into our projected AP Top 25 rankings, bringing up the rear.

PROJECTED DROP FROM RANKINGS

Tulane Green Wave (18)
Texas A&M Aggies (20)