College Football Rankings: Projecting AP Poll Top 25 after Week 3

A subdued Week 3 slate was about as advertised — at least as far as the Top 25 goes. Outside of the Sunshine State scaries with Florida and Florida State, the third full Saturday of the 2024 season didn’t deliver a ton of interesting results. 

No. 1 Georgia survived at Kentucky, and LSU had a season-saving comeback at South Carolina, but there were no true upsets among ranked teams. 

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That doesn’t mean there won’t be some moving and shaking with the latest AP Poll Top 25 projections, though. Could Texas overtake UGA for the top-spot? Who enters the rankings with Arizona and Boston College likely to drop out?

Here’s how I think the Week 4 AP Poll Top 25 could look come Sunday morning:

1. Texas (Last week: 2)

Quinn Ewers entered Saturday as the current betting-favorite for the Heisman Trophy, but a first-half abdominal injury paved the way for Arch Manning’s official coming out party. The former No. 1 overall recruit had five touchdowns and over 275 total yards in Texas’ 56-7 win over UTSA. Manning threw a 19-yard strike for a score on his first pass after replacing Ewers, and then the 5-star redshirt freshman out-ran the Roadrunners’ entire defense on 67-yard touchdown scamper on the very next series. 

Should Ewers miss any time, Texas clearly looks like it’ll be just fine with Manning running the show. The Longhorns’ defense continues to play well, and the schedule doesn’t stiffen until October (Louisiana-Monroe, Mississippi State the next two weekends). 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Texas’ rebuilt defense had 17 havoc plays against UTSA, recording a pick-six late, along with three sacks, 12 tackles for loss and two PBUs.

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2. Georgia (Last week: 1)

The Bulldogs thought they could walk into Kroger Field and waltz straight down the checkout line for an easy ‘W’ — only to find themselves in a four-quarter fist-fight with an angry Wildcats team. Preseason All-Americans Carson Beck and safety Malachi Starks had the worst games of their careers, but they made just enough plays for UGA to escape with a 13-12 win. 

The Bulldogs were out of sync offensively the whole night (just 262 total yards), and they kept allowing Kentucky to extend drives with bone-headed defensive penalties (nine flags for 85 yards).

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Already playing without top edge rusher Mykell Williams, Georgia lost All-American guard Tate Ratledge to a leg injury in the first half. We’ll see if either player is available in two weeks when Georgia goes to Alabama for a massive Top-5 showdown. 

3. Ohio State (Last week: 3)

Idle. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Buckeyes have one more tune-up game before starting Big Ten play in two weeks, hosting Marshall on Big Noon Kickoff. 

4. Alabama (Last week: 4)

For the first time this season, Alabama looked like the Alabama of yore, as the Crimson Tide rolled past Wisconsin 42-10 in Madison. Quarterback Jalon Milroe was fantastic, leading the way with 196 passing yards and three touchdowns and 75 rushing yards and two scores. The Tide produced seven plays over 25-yards, including a pair of long touchdown passes and a Jam Miller 34-yard run for a score. 

Wisconsin quarterback Tyler Van Dyke exited the game on the opening drive, but the Tide’s defense came to play anyways. They forced four fumbles, held the Badgers to just 3 of 14 on third-downs and had five tackles for loss.

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: With the 32-point win, the Tide delivered Wisconsin its worst home-loss since 2008 when Penn State hammered the Badgers 48-7.

5. Ole Miss (Last week: 5)

The Rebels had a ho-hum, thank you very much victory at Wake Forest, cruising past the Demon Deacons 40-6. Transfer tailback Henry Parrish has had a nice homecoming return to the Rebels, rushing for 148 yards and two scores for the second-straight game. The Jaxson Dart–Tre Harris connection continues to be deadly, too, with the duo going for 11 for 127. Harris had a brief injury scare in the third quarter but returned to the game shortly thereafter. 

Ole Miss’ defense totally bottled up Wake Forest’s offense, holding the Deacons to just 46 yards rushing. They also had four sacks and got their hands on eight pass deflections (with one pick). 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Rebels have one more cupcake game (vs. Georgia Southern) before starting SEC play at the end of September against Kentucky.

6. Tennessee (Last week: 7)

These Vols are officially a wagon. In a blink, the scoreboard read 37-0 against Kent State at the end of the first quarter, as Tennessee rolled for a 71-0 cakewalk win. This was domination rarely seen in D1 football. The Vols had close to 300 yards in the first quarter and finished with a 740-112 yardage advantage with a whopping nine touchdowns. Tailback Dylan Sampson had 101 yards and four touchdowns, while backup DeSean Bishop one-up’d his counterpart with 120 yards on just seven carries with two scores. 

The Vols emptied the bench defensively, with more than 25 players recording a tackle or stat. Even with the 2s and 3s playing, they allowed just 54 yards rushing. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Up 30-0 late in the first quarter, Tennessee dialed up a surprise onside kick. The Vols recovered and scored their fifth touchdown nine plays later. 

7. Missouri (Last week: 6)

Despite being nearly three-score favorites against No. 24 Boston College, Missouri had to rally — and then hold on — to beat the Eagles 27-21 in Columbia. The Tigers hadn’t allowed a point all season, but their defense was challenged early by Thomas Castellanos, who tossed two touchdowns in the first half. Missouri tightened up the rest of the game, though, picking off Boston College twice while Brady Cook (two scores), Luther Burden (117 yards, one touchdown) and kicker Blake Craig (3-for-3 with a long of 56) took the Tigers home. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Tigers forced the Eagles into a completely one-dimensional offense in the second half, holding BC to minus-three rushing.

8. Oregon (Last week: 9)

For the first time all season, the Ducks quacked loudly and looked like a championship team by splattering arch-rival Oregon State 49-14. Dan Lanning’s team was much better in the trenches Saturday, as the offensive was able to push the pile and sustain drives, while the defensive line controlled the front against the Beavers’ Top-5 rushing attack. 

Oregon rushed for 240 yards, as tailback Jordan James finally got going (86 yards at 7.2 per carry with two scores), while quarterback Dillon Gabriel averaged over 12 yards per attempt for 291 yards and two touchdowns. The Ducks held the Beavers to 131 rushing yards. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Ducks entered the day as one of the sloppiest teams in college football, ranking 109th nationally in penalties (17 on the season). But they played much cleaner in Saturday, getting flagged just three times.

9. Penn State (Last week: 8)

Idle. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Nittany Lions get to enjoy the next month at home, hosting Kent State off the bye week and then starting Big Ten play with Illinois and UCLA.

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10. Miami (Last week: 10)

Cam Ward authored his latest Heisman Trophy showcase, throwing five touchdowns in a little over two quarters in Miami’s 62-0 splattering of Ball State. Ward finished with 346 yards passing on 19 of 28 completions. He sliced up Ball State’s secondary with 10 throws over 20 yards — including four of his five touchdowns. 

The Hurricanes’ defense came to play, too, with Francisco Mauigoa, Simeon Barrow Jr. and Tyler Baron leading a unit that produced nine tackles for loss, four sacks and two takeaways. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Something to monitor moving forward: The Hurricanes are starting to get a bit beat up along the offensive line. They already down the entire left side Saturday (both left tackle Jalen Rivers and guard Ryan Rodriguez missed the game), they lost starting right guard Anez Cooper to a leg injury in the first half. 

The rest of the projected AP Top 25:

11. USC (Last week: 11)

Idle. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Trojans will make their trip to the Big House next weekend, and the early line movement in USC-Michigan has been wild since the summer. The Wolverines opened as a 10-point favorite during the offseason, and now after three weeks, most books have USC favored by 2.5-3-points. 

12. Utah (Last week: 12)

With Cam Rising sidelined with a hand injury, Utah turned to freshman Isaac Wilson, who had three touchdowns on 239 passing yards in a 38-21 win over Utah State. In his first-career start, Wilson and the Utes struggled out of the gate, but a couple defensive takeaways in the second quarter helped turn a 14-3 deficit into a 17-14 halftime lead. 

Utah tailback Micah Bernard then took-over in the second half, finishing with his best game in the last two seasons with 123 yards and a score. 

ONE THING TO KNOW: The Utes went up against former Utah quarterback Bryson Barnes, who played in 11 games for the team in 2023. The Pig Farmer threw a pair of touchdowns in the first quarter but he also had two costly picks (including one in the end zone).

13. Oklahoma State (Last week: 13)

Behind Alan Bowman’s career-day, the Pokes pulverized Tulsa on the road 45-10 in their final tune-up game before a tough Big 12 slate awaits. The seventh-year senior quarterback had five touchdowns for 396 yards in just three quarters — including two long scores that went for 78 and 63 yards each. 

Oklahoma State rolled despite another poor showing from star tailback Ollie Gordon, who was held well-below 100 yards rushing for the second week in a row. Last year’s Doak Walker Award winner was limited to just 41 yards on 17 carries (almost an identical stat line as he had against Arkansas). Gordon is averaging under 3.9 yards per carry this season.

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The next two weeks could determine the whether the Cowboys are serious Big 12 title contenders — they host No. 12 Utah and then play at No. 14 Kansas State. 

14. Kansas State (Last week: 14)

The Wildcats turned a sloppy, mistake-filled 14-7 halftime lead into a 31-7 rout over No. 20 Arizona. Colorado transfer Dylan Edwards had a 71-yard punt return score, but K-State left all sorts of points on the field in the first half. But sophomore quarterback Avery Johnson showcased his exciting dual-threat talent with a strong second half, finishing with 156 yards passing and 110 yards rushing. 

The Wildcats’ defense picked off Noah Fifita in the end zone in the first half and then held Arizona’s prolific quarterback to two punts and three turnover on downs in the second half. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: These two teams could meet again in the Big 12 title game, as Friday night’s matchup was a unique non-conference game between two league foes. 

15. Oklahoma (Last week: 15)

It wasn’t always clean or crisp, but the Sooners took care of business against a frisky Tulane team with a 34-19 win Saturday. Oklahoma’s offense (with a reshuffled OL) was still clunky (just 4.0 yards per carry, 5.8 yards per throw and a horrible pick-six in the second half) but Jackson Arnold did have three total touchdowns — leading the way with 97 yards rushing. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Have yourself a day, Mr. Mason Thomas. The junior end entered the day with 1.5 career sacks and just one TFL in 2024, yet in a two series stretch dominated the game with three sacks — including a strip-and-scoop recovery that ended any comeback thoughts for the Green Wave late in the fourth quarter. 

16. LSU (Last week: 16)

In the game of the day (hey, ESPN did know what it was doing after-all!), LSU outlasted South Carolina in an epic seesaw affair. The Tigers rallied from a 17-0 deficit for a 36-33 win to save their season. Garrett Nussmeier found Mason Taylor for a short touchdown with 1:12 remaining, and Brian Kelly offered a big sigh of relief after South Carolina missed a 49-yard field goal at the buzzer. 

Nussmeier was nails for LSU, playing poised and confident despite the OL’s early struggles and the offense’s woes in the red zone. The quarterback finished with 285 yards and two touchdowns. The Tigers also may have found an answer at tailback with freshman Caden Durham, who churred out 99 yards and two scores. The Tigers gave up lots of yards on the ground, but they did come away with five sacks and two takeaways.

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Tigers won in Columbia on Saturday despite allowing 243 yards rushing, giving up a blocked punt to setup a score and going 5 of 7 in the red zone. 

17. Notre Dame (Last week: 18)

The Irish rebounded from last weekend’s inexplicable loss to Northern Illinois by pounding Purdue 66-7 in West Lafayette. Quarterback Riley Leonard answered some critics by rushing for over 100 yards with three touchdowns. Notre Dame’s offense jumped out to a 42-0 halftime lead en route to the Boilermakers’ worst loss in school history. 

The Irish ran all over Purdue (362 yards with six touchdowns), averaging over 8.1 yards per carry. They had five runs go over 20 yards, with 11 explosive runs in total. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Leonard was 11 of 16 passing for 112 yards, but the Duke transfer has still not thrown for a touchdown this season. Backup Steve Angeli did end the team’s streak with two passing scores in the second half.

18. Michigan (Last week: 17)

Michigan’s quarterback conundrum looks no closer to be solved as the Wolverines are set to start Big Ten play against USC next weekend. Michigan beat Arkansas State 28-18 where starter Davis Warren didn’t throw an incompletion — but had three interceptions. Backup Alex Orji was just 2 of 4 for 12 yards and a short score.

The Wolverines did finally get their ground-game going, as Kalel Mullings has become RB1 and had a career-high 153 yards and two touchdowns. They finished the afternoon with 301 rushing yards at 6.8 per clip. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Wolverines are already short on playmakers at the perimeter, and All-American tight end Colston Loveland exited the game in the third quarter with an injury. Backup tight end Marlin Klein finished as UM’s leading receiver with 43 yards on three catches.

19. Louisville (Last week: 19)

Idle.

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Cards have been among the most impressive ACC teams to start the 2024 season, but the schedule will start to stiffen coming off the bye week — hosting Georgia Tech and then going to Notre Dame. 

20. Iowa State (Last week: 21)

Idle. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Cyclones have a final paycheck game against Arkansas State, which lost at Michigan, before facing nine-straight Big 12 foes. Matt Campbell’s team should get off to a hot-start in conference play, as ISU figures to be favored in its first five league games. 

21. Clemson (Last week: 22)

Idle.

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Tigers’ scary early-season schedule suddenly looks much more manageable after NC State got housed by Tennessee and Florida State has had a disastrous start to 2024. 

22. Nebraska (Last week: 23)

A competent, dare-I-say trustworthy Nebraska team? This economy is producing new results, I guess, as the Cornhuskers handled one of the top FCS teams with a 34-3 win over Northern Iowa. Nebraska moved to 3-0 for the first time since 2016 — not coincidentally the last time they made a bowl game. Freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola came out firing early (he hit 12 of his first 13 passes), finishing with 247 yards and two scores. 

Nebraska sputtered a bit offensively in the second half, and they were out-gained on the ground until deep into the fourth quarter. But Tony White’s defense pitched a second-half shutout and allowed just a single play over 20 yards. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Cornhuskers put a couple new offensively wrinkles on tape for opponents to considering — showing various formations with two quarterbacks on the field. Backup Heinrich Haarberg actually caught an eight-yard pass from Raiola and also ran for five yards off a handoff. 

23. Illinois (Last week: Unranked)

The Fighting Illini were on the fringes of cracking the Top 25 last weekend, but they should officially enter the field after moving to 3-0 with a lackluster, let’s-get-this-over-with 30-9 win over Central Michigan. Coming off the upset against Kansas, Illinois’ offense came and went and they had 10 penalties for 81 yards. 

Illinois staying-power in the rankings will be determined in less than a week’s time, as Bret Bielema’s squad will square off against Nebraska in Lincoln on Friday night.  

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Perhaps the most interesting note from the Illini’s win Saturday was Ethan Moczulski‘s school-record kick. The Texas A&M transfer nailed a 59-yard field goal at the end of the first half. 

24. Memphis (Last week: Unranked)

The Tigers made their case for the top Group of 5 CFP contender by continuing Florida State’s painful 2024 season with a 20-12 upset in Tallahassee. Memphis wasn’t even overly sharp in the win over its former head coach Mike Norvell, but the Tigers took advantage of FSU’s offensive and special teams ineptitude to hold on for a huge program victory. Memphis’ defense held FSU to just 238 total yards (with three takeaways and 2 of 12 on third downs), while quarterback Seth Henigan had 272 yards passing with two touchdowns.

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Despite FSU’s now 0-3 record, Memphis picked up a solid resume win — and collected a $1.3 million bonus check for doing so as part of the guarantee for playing Saturday’s non-conference game. 

25 Northern Illinois (Last week: No. 25)

Idle. 

ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Huskies head coach Thomas Hammock made the media rounds this week after his team upset Notre Dame, and while the former NIU tailback has been actively spreading his program’s message of “The Hard Way,” Hammock also revealed that he’s exchanged multiple phone calls and texts with Irish head coach Marcus Freeman — offering advice.

Projected to drop out: No. 20 Arizona, No. 24 Boston College