College Football Rankings: Projecting AP Poll Top 25 after Week 4
So much for a #ChaosSZN, right? At least not yet.
Week 4 featured plenty of doozy games — hello, Baylor-Colorado, JMU-North Carolina and San Jose State-Washington State — but the Top 25 won’t look a whole lot differently after a lack of upsets again this weekend.
Michigan did rally to outlast USC, while Illinois stunned Nebraska in overtime, but otherwise, Week 4 went mostly to chalk.
Still, with lots of teams opening conference play this weekend, we could see some slight shuffling in the latest AP Poll Top 25 projections. Once again, Tennessee was quite impressive defensively — totally bottling up Oklahoma. Utah won at Oklahoma State with a backup quarterback, while Clemson mauled NC State.
Here’s how I think the Week 4 AP Poll Top 25 could look come Sunday morning:
1. Texas (Last week: 2)
It’s not quite that easy, kid. After last weekend’s five touchdown performance in a backup role, Arch Manning’s highly-anticipated first-career start was a seesaw affair. The redshirt freshman threw for two touchdowns but also had two picks in the Longhorns’ 51-3 win over Louisiana-Monroe. Manning, starting in the place of Quinn Ewers who was out with an oblique injury, finished 15 of 29 for 258 yards.
Just like last week against UTSA, Manning made several impressive throws, including a dot to Isaiah Bond for a 56 yard strike immediately following his first interception. While the pocket awareness remains a work in progress, it’s clear why Manning was among the top-rated recruits in the 2023 class.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Texas’ defense didn’t allow a touchdown for the second time in four games and now they get to open SEC play against a very spotty Mississippi State offense.
2. Georgia (Last week: 1)
Idle date.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: All-American guard Tate Ratledge underwent tightrope surgery on an ankle injury he suffered against Kentucky, and will miss the next 4-6 weeks.
3. Ohio State (Last week: 3)
After a slow start, the Buckeyes ran past Marshall 49-14 as Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins (173 yards and two touchdowns) and TreVeyon Henderson (76 yards and two scores) combined for 250 yards and four scores on the ground.
Judkins ripped off a 86-yard touchdown run, and had another score where he stiffed armed a Thundering Herd defender into the turf. Ohio State actually trailed 7-0, but Will Howard answered immediately with a 68-yard touchdown to Emeka Egbuka on second play of the series. Howard had three total touchdowns on the afternoon, with a one-yard rush and a 55-yard catch-and-run slant to 5-star freshman Jeremiah Smith.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Buckeyes’ typically salty defense struggled to get off the field in the first half against Marshall. The Thundering Herd were 6 of 11 on third downs and 2-2 in the red zone, giving Ohio State a game for 30 minutes before losing starting quarterback Stone Earle to an injury in the third quarter.
4. Alabama (Last week: 4)
Idle.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: ESPN’s College GameDay will head to Tuscaloosa next weekend for the Top-5 showdown.
5. Ole Miss (Last week: 5)
Another week, another Heisman Trophy stat-padding performance by quarterback Jaxson Dart — and I say that with zero derision. Playing behind a so-so offensive line, Dart has piled up ridiculous numbers through the first four weeks of the 2024 season, this time throwing four more touchdowns and 382 yards in Ole Miss’ 52-13 romp over Georgia Southern.
The Rebels again had over 600 yards of total offense, while their defense held the Eagles to just a single touchdown and recorded 13 tackles for loss (including a big day from Arkansas transfer linebacker Chris Paul Jr.)
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Tre Harris had 11 receptions for the second-straight game — this time going for 225 yards and two touchdowns. The former La. Tech transfer has looked like the best receiver in the country this season.
6. Tennessee (Last week: 7)
Happy homecoming for Josh Heupel, as the former OU quarterback and offensive coordinator exacted a bit of revenge on his alma mater with 25-15 win behind a dominating defensive performance by the Vols.
Tennessee suffocated Oklahoma’s offense, forcing three takeaways, 11 tackles for loss and four sacks while holding the Sooners to just 282 yards. Jackson Arnold was so bad he was benched. Nico Iamaleava had a pair of fumbles, but was otherwise solid albeit unspectacular (13 of 21 for 194 yards and a touchdown). The Vols’ typical gnarly ground game had difficulties finding much room against the Sooners’ stout defensive (just 2.9 yards per carry).
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Vols took control of this game in the second quarter, turning a tight 10-3 affair into a 19-3 halftime lead. They had a safety and a late Dylan Sampson touchdown dive, and they held OU to -20 yards for the quarter.
7. Miami (Last week: 8)
The ROI on Miami’s NIL investments continue to look sublime. Cam Ward had another 400 yard, three-touchdown night, while Damien Martinez rushed for a couple scores as the Canes turned a 15-14 deficit into a 50-15 win over USF in Tampa on Saturday.
The ‘Canes were unfazed by the late first-half deficit, as Ward immediately responded with a 76-yard touchdown pass to Samuel Brown. They then boat-raced the Bulls after halftime, with four touchdowns and zero points allowed. For the first time ever? Mario Cristobal’s team has the ability to hit the gas and just crush teams in a flash.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Canes open ACC play next weekend (vs. Va Tech) and they stand to be favorites in all eight remaining games — with just a single ranked team remaining on the schedule (at Louisville, Oct. 19).
8. Oregon (Last week: 9)
Idle.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Ducks open Big Ten play next weekend against a familiar foe, traveling to UCLA.
9. Penn State (Last week: 10)
If your offense is need of some confidence, call 1-800-Kent State and just put the Golden Flashes on the schedule. A week after giving up a 70-burger to Tennessee, Kent State got blanked 56-0 by PSU, which started slowly and then caught fire in the second quarter. The Nittany Lions found a quick-strike attack that produced 23 explosive plays!!! They set a school record with 718 yards of total offense.
Drew Allar threw 300 yards with four total touchdowns, while PSU rushed for more than 300 yards, too. The Nittany Lions emptied the bench defensively and still pitched a shutout despite zero takeaways.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: PSU tight end Tyler Warren — one of the best in the country — displayed his versatility by catching five passes for 50 yards and a score (including a nifty one-handed grab), rushing for 16 yards on a direct snap and then throwing a 16-yard touchdown pass to tailback Nick Singleton.
10. Utah (Last week: 12)
Kyle Whittingham was up to his usual BS injury chicanery, as quarterback Cam Rising was reportedly slated to start all week but gave way to freshman Isaac Wilson, who helped the Utes get past Oklahoma State in Stillwater.
They withstood a furious fourth-quarter comeback, as tailback Micah Bernard (career-high 182 yards) converted a key first down to run out the clock. Wilson had two turnovers but threw for 200 yards and had two key runs on third and fourth down (one that went for 48 yards) to extend drives.
Morgan Scalley’s defense frustrated the Pokes’ offense until their final two series, holding the Cowboys to less than 300 yards, a couple takeaways and just 48 yards rushing.
ONE THING TO KNOW: The Utes dominated the time of possession — running 81 plays to just 59 for Oklahoma State while holding the ball for more than 42 minutes of action.
The rest of the projected AP Top 25:
11. Missouri (Last week: 6)
It’s only going to get harder from here, Mizzou. The Tigers spent more than 60 minutes playing with their food against Vanderbilt, barely overcoming a slew of mistakes to escape with a 30-27 double-overtime win.
Led by Nate Noel (199 yards), the Tigers rushed for over 200 yards but they did little else right Saturday. They had a ton of missed tackles, a blown coverage for a 65-yard touchdown, some ill-timed penalties, some terrible clock management from head coach Eli Drinkwitz and three missed field goals. They were simply fortunate that Vandy was unable to capitalize on all the mistakes.
Brady Cook did find Luther Burden for the tying touchdown in overtime, and freshman Blake Craig atoned for his three misses with the winning kick in double OT.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Vandy had the perfect chance to send the game to triple-overtime but Brock Taylor badly shanked a 31-yard field goal.
12. Michigan (Last week: 18)
Michigan’s decision to lean back into its smash-mouth identity paid off immediately, as Sherrone Moore’s team upset No. 11 USC 27-24 behind a tenacious defense and some monster runs from Kalel Mullings.
The senior had a career-high 159 yards, including a 53-yard touchdown and a 63-yard sprint late in the fourth quarter to setup his one-yard plunge to cap the win. Outside of Mullings (and one long Donovan Edwards touchdown run), Michigan’s offense couldn’t do anything. Alex Orji threw for just 34 yards — with no passing going longer than 10 yards — something only a couple service academies (Army and Navy) running the triple-option have accomplished in the last few seasons, per TruMediaSports.
Defensively, Will Johnson had a huge pick-six, while Joasiah Stewart was a one-man wrecking crew. The senior edge rusher will be in Miller Moss’ nightmares — recording two sacks, three tackles for loss and five hurries.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Before Mullings exploded for the 63-yard run with 2:20 remaining in the fourth quarter, Michigan had just 20 yards of offense in the second half.
13. Clemson (Last week: 21)
For the second-straight game, the Tigers mauled an opponent from the opening quarter, racing out to a 28-point lead en route to a 59-35 blowout over NC State. The offensive renaissance looks real, as Cade Klubnik had four more touchdowns (including a 55-yard rushing score), the run game produced 270 yards and the Tigers had 14 explosive plays.
Clemson led 45-7 at halftime, and added a pick-six in the third quarter before emptying the bench, which allowed NC State to score three touchdowns in the fourth quarter to make the margin look less embarrassing.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Clemson became the first FBS team in at least 20 years to hold a 28-point lead at the end of the first quarter in consecutive games, per ABC.
14. USC (Last week: 11)
The Trojans will be kicking themselves for coughing up a late lead in their Big Ten debut, as their former tackling woes rendered its ugly head at the worst time — allowing Michigan tailback Kalel Mullings to rumble through multiple defensive backs for a 63-yard gain to setup the winning score in a 27-24 loss.
USC played hard, overcoming some serious blocking issues up front (4 sacks allowed, 8 TFLs, 11 hurries), but Miller Moss was erratic (three touchdowns but just 28-for-51) and threw a back-breaking pick-six late in the third quarter.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Trojans transfer tailback Woody Marks had 100 yards rushing on 13 carries, ripping off a 65-yard run. But his biggest play of the day was when he stripped Wolverines defensive tackle Kenneth Grant after the senior recovered a fumble in the red zone.
15. LSU (Last week: 16)
After boo-birds filled up Tiger Stadium at halftime of a 17-all game, LSU snuck past UCLA 34-17 with a better showing in the second half. Garrett Nussmeier orchestrated a pair of 90-plus yard touchdown drives, finishing with 352 yards and three touchdowns. Senior Josh Williams led the way on the ground with 62 yards and a score.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Preseason All-American linebacker Harold Perkins II suffered a knee injury on a tackle in the fourth quarter. The junior needed assistance off the field and was immediately taken to the locker room. Brian Kelly hoped to have “a better answer” on Perkins’ future availability Monday.
16. Notre Dame (Last week: 17)
The Irish overcame a sluggish start to avoid another MAC disaster, beating Miami (OH) 28-3. Notre Dame was held scoreless until later in the second quarter, with Riley Leonard got going with two touchdowns — including his first passing score of the 2024 season.
The Duke transfer continues to underwhelm as a passer (16 of 25 for 154 yards), but his legs continue to challenge defenses (163 yards, two scores) at the same time, too. He rushed for more than 100 yards for the second straight game, but he’s failed to pass for more than 165 yards all season.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Outside of the blowout over Purdue, the Irish continue to live dangerously with penalties (eight for 66) and sloppy special teams play (botched field goal snap, muffed punt).
17. Louisville (Last week: 19)
The Cards avoided becoming the latest victim of the “Brent Key beats a ranked ACC opponent,” holding off Georgia Tech for a sloppy 31-19 win. In a 17-all game late in the third quarter, Tyler Shough found Ja’Corey Brooks for a 57-yard touchdown where the ex-Alabama wideout showcased remarkable body control to turn around the find the football. After Shough took a bad safety on the very next series, Louisville’s special teams bailed out the quarterback, blocking a field goal for a 55-yard scoop-and-score for the second non-offensive touchdown of the game.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Cards had just 57 yards rushing and were out-gained 410-326 yards. They also had seven penalties for 69 yards. They’ll need to play much cleaner to win at Notre Dame next weekend.
18. Iowa State (Last week: 20)
The Cyclones came out of their bye week humming, housing Arkansas State 52-7 in their final tune-up before Big 12 play. Rocco Becht threw for 204 yards and two scores, and Iowa State had a balanced rushing attack that went for 237 and five touchdowns. They rolled up nearly 500 yards of total offense — their best output in a game since beating TCU in 2021.
Iowa State held Arkansas State scoreless until a late garbage-time touchdown in the fourth quarter. They had four takeaways, four sacks and just 64 rushing yards allowed.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Matt Campbell has been the best ISU coach in modern history, and he tied Dan McCarney for the most program wins at 56 on Saturday.
19. Illinois (Last week: 24)
Behind Luke Altmyer’s career night, the Fighting Illini upset Nebraska 31-24 in overtime Friday night. The former Ole Miss transfer threw four touchdown passes, including the tying score to 6-6, 335-pound Brandon Henderson on a tackle-eligible play early in the fourth quarter. Altmyer then threw the go-ahead touchdown throw in overtime, and Illinois’ defense sealed the win in Lincoln with three straight sacks (they had five total on the night).
The win sets up an unexpected Big Ten showcase game in Week 4, as Illinois travels to No. 10 Penn State.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Illinois is 4-0 for the first time since 2011, and with wins over Kansas and Nebraska (both of whom are no longer in the Top 25), they have been two ranked opponents in the same season for the first time in 17 years.
20. Washington State (Last week: Unranked)
It’s a September party in Pullman, as the Cougars moved to 4-0 with a furious fourth quarter rally and overtime thriller against San Jose State on Friday.
In a 54-52 shootout, Wazzu scored three straight touchdowns to start the fourth, turning a 14-point deficit into a 43-38 lead. The Spartans scored the go-ahead touchdown with 26 seconds remaining, but John Mateer quickly drove WSU down the field to setup a tying 52-yard kick to send the game to overtime.
Both teams through picks to start OT, but Wazzu got a stop on the two-point conversion to seal the comeback win.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: There was 1,118 total yards between the two teams. Former Wazzu quarterback Emmett Brown threw for 375 yards and four touchdowns (with two picks), while Cougs QB John Mateer continued to post ridiculous stats (501 total yards, five touchdowns).
In our latest projections, Texas leapfrogs Georgia for the No. 1 spot in the Week 3 AP Poll Top 25.
21. Oklahoma (Last week: 15)
Talk about a September surprise: We may have a brewing quarterback controversy in Norman, as former 5-star Jackson Arnold was so atrocious against Tennessee (one pick and two costly fumbles immediately following OU takeaways) that Brent Venables turned to freshman Michael Hawkins Jr., who at least provided the Sooners a bit of spark.
Oklahoma lost its SEC opener 25-15 to No. 6 Tennessee, almost entirely due to the team’s offensive ineptitude. The Sooners held Nico Iamaleava, Dylan Sampson and the rest of UT’s offense mostly in check (just 345 total yards), but their OL was bullied all night.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: While OU’s offense has major issues right now, Venables’ defense looks SEC ready. The Sooners tallied nine tackles for loss, three sacks and two forced fumbles to frustrate one of the top offenses in college football.
22. Oklahoma State (Last week: 14)
A week after Alan Bowman’s career day, the seventh-year senior quarterback was benched at halftime and then reinserted late in the fourth quarter to lead a comeback that fell just short in a 22-19 loss to No. 12 Utah.
Bowman was just 8 of 22 for 90 yards in the first half before leading two touchdown drives inside the final six minutes. It wasn’t enough, though, as the Pokes were otherwise awful offensively. Ollie Gordon’s struggles continued, as the reigning Doak Walker Award winner was bottled up again for just 42 yards rushing on 11 carries.
The Cowboys’ run defense had its issues, too, allowing Micah Bernard to go off for 182 yards and watch freshman quarterback Isaac Wilson rumble for 48 yards on a 3rd-and-11.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: It doesn’t get any easier for Oklahoma State, which likely needs to win at No. 13 Kansas State next weekend if it wants to remain in the Big 12 title race.
23. Indiana (Last week: Unranked)
The Hoosiers are 4-0 for the first time since 2020, as Curt Cignetti’s team just blasts opponents on a weekly basis. This weekend’s foe was Charlotte, who trailed just 17-14 midway through the second quarter only to lose 52-14. Indiana had over 500 yards of total offense, rushing for 222 yards and six touchdowns.
Cignetti became the first IU coach to ever start his career 4-0, and his team has already surpassed the program’s win-total from last season.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: If the Hoosiers beat Maryland in Bloomington next weekend, they’ll be 5-0 for the first time in 57 years.
24. Kansas State (Last week: 13)
The Wildcats better hope what happens in Provo stays in Provo because they delivered an inexplicably disappointing showing at BYU on Saturday night, getting blasted 38-9.
Despite a sloppy first-half performance, the Wildcats led 6-3 with around two minutes remaining in the first half, only to see Avery Johnson turn the ball over twice that led to Cougars’ touchdowns. Coming out of halftime, Johnson had another awful interception and Kansas State surrendered a 93-yard punt return score, and the four-touchdown deficit was all she wrote.
Johnson, who has benched in the second half, went 15 of 28 for 130 yards (4.8 per attempt) with two picks and a fumble.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Wildcats lost by four scores despite allowing just 241 total yards. BYU was 3 of 9 on third downs and rushed for under 100 yards. The team’s first Big 12 loss in 2024 hangs totally on the offense.
25. Texas A&M (Last Week: 25)
A week after thumping Florida in The Swamp, Texas A&M nearly had an embarrassing letdown against a feisty Bowling Green team — outlasting the Eagles 26-20 with an onside kick recovery inside the final 40 seconds. Marcel Reed made a second-straight start in place of Conner Weigman and had close to 275 total yards and two touchdowns, but the freshman quarterback was widely inaccurate at times (16 of 30) that forced Texas A&M to settle for four field goals (three in the red zone).
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Le’Veon Moss had 90 yards rushing on 16 carries but the junior tailback coughed up the football with 90 seconds remaining to allow Bowling Green to kick a field goal and have an onside kick chance to steal a win.
Projected to drop out: No. 22 Nebraska, No. 23 Northern Illinois