It's too expensive to fire most head coaches, so the coordinator market is about to go crazy

The 186-word e-mail popped in Sunday while most of the football-loving world focused on the NFL. Florida State, fresh off a 52-3 pasting at Notre Dame and crawling toward the finish line at 1-9, had fired coordinators Alex Atkins and Adam Fuller along with receivers coach Ron Dugans.

Who will direct the Seminoles on the field for their final two games against Charleston Southern and Florida? Who cares? The masses demanded a sacrifice, and they weren’t going to get head coach Mike Norvell because of a massive buyout. So the coordinators had to go. 

Expect this to be the template for the next few weeks as teams close disappointing seasons but have head coaches whose buyouts make them too expensive to fire. The over/under on power conference job openings because of firings/forced retirements is two. The coordinator market, however, is going to be wild.

Oklahoma needs an OC. Oklahoma State may need one soon. Florida State needs both coordinators. The conditions for Billy Napier’s return at Florida may include a requirement to hire a playcalling OC (in place of Napier calling the offense) and to replace the DC. They’re unhappy with the offenses at Nebraska and Georgia. If LSU loses another game (or two), Brian Kelly can’t be fired, but a sacrifice may be sought. Michigan’s roster issues can be traced back to the timing of Jim Harbaugh’s departure, but does that mean first-year head coach Sherrone Moore is satisfied with the way the offense has been run?

As Kelly showed at Notre Dame when he replaced both coordinators and his strength coach following a disastrous 2016 season, a team can be reshaped without firing the head coach. Quite a few teams will attempt that this offseason. The most dramatic attempt may be in Tallahassee, where Norvell dropped the ax on Atkins and Fuller on Sunday.

It’s a stunning fall from less than a year ago when Florida State was headed toward a 13-0 record and an ACC title. Atkins was interviewing for head coach jobs and Fuller was fielding other DC interest that ultimately got him a new contract. Meanwhile, that success got Norvell on Alabama’s short list in case Nick Saban retired. When Saban (represented by agent Jimmy Sexton) did retire in January, Norvell (represented by Sexton) received an eight-year, $84 million extension from Florida State. While Norvell was on Alabama athletic director Greg Byrne’s list, it’s unclear whether he was seriously engaged in talks with Alabama before Byrne ultimately hired Kalen DeBoer (represented by Sexton) from Washington. 

That deal has a liquidated damages — lawyer speak for buyout — clause that requires Florida State to pay 85 percent of Norvell’s remaining salary should he be fired without cause. So Florida State would owe Norvell about $63 million if it fired him after this season. 

In other words, Norvell isn’t going anywhere.

Neither is Oklahoma’s Brent Venables, who received a wholly unnecessary — because no one was trying to hire him — extension this offseason that pushed his buyout to about $44.8 million. OC Seth Litrell was sacrificed following the South Carolina game. 

LSU fans were leery of Kelly after the Tigers wasted a historic offensive season in 2023 by fielding perhaps the worst defense in school history, but Kelly still had turned in two double-digit win seasons. Now that LSU is out of the College Football Playoff picture after getting embarrassed by Alabama at home, the fanbase is positively livid. But Kelly is quite safe thanks to a buyout that would cost about $61 million. Kelly wiped out the defensive staff after last season, but would he make changes on the other side of the ball if this season goes further south?

Texas A&M set the buyout record last year when it paid $76 million to buy out Jimbo Fisher. But the second-highest figure remains the $20.5 million Auburn paid to fire Gus Malzahn following the 2020 season. Texas A&M probably didn’t start a trend; it likely will remain the outlier. Last week, Florida announced Napier’s return in part because of a reluctance to pay a $26 million-plus buyout that would have become the new No. 2 on the list. 

With schools starting to share revenue — up to $22 million next year — with athletes because of the House v. NCAA settlement, athletic departments already were slashing budgets in other areas. Taking on another massive expense, particularly one with high, up-front cash costs like a football head-coaching change, isn’t appealing right now.

So don’t expect a busy head-coaching market this offseason. (Expect a wild one after the 2025 season, though.) Do expect a frantic coordinator market. And don’t be surprised if some coaches who would have tried to land head-coaching jobs this offseason take coordinator jobs. It’s not an accident that former West Virginia and Houston coach Dana Holgorsen signed on last week with Nebraska as an offensive consultant. Holgorsen could wind up a candidate if Nebraska makes a change. He also might be appealing at Oklahoma or anywhere else that wants an experienced play caller.

UPDATE: On Monday, Nebraska coach Matt Rhule announced Holgorsen will call plays for Nebraska this week against USC. So forget being a candidate. He’s now the Cornhuskers’ OC.

Also, watch the Group of 5. There could be more head coach-to-power conference-coordinator moves like the one that took Kane Wommack from South Alabama head coach to Alabama defensive coordinator. Let’s say a power conference team really wants an experienced offensive mind. Would they try to lure Jason Candle from Toledo or Tom Herman from Florida Atlantic by offering to double the salary the G5 team pays the head coach? It’s entirely possible.

With buyouts this high, changing head coaches is cost prohibitive. But a team can be remade by replacing one or both coordinators. So get ready for the sports to play a massive game of coordinator musical chairs.