College Football post-transfer portal Top 25: Ohio State leads the way

The dust has settled from the spring transfer portal window, and it’s time to examine where everyone stands. The key difference between ranking a top 25 now and doing it a year ago is that the list of College Football Playoff contenders used to cut off around 12. With the CFP expanding to 12 teams this year, if you’re even in contention to make the top 25, you might be a few lucky bounces of the ball away from making the tournament.

That’s what struck me the most as I struggled to parse teams below No. 15. Obviously none of them were perfect, but it’s possible to see a path that ends in the CFP for all of them. That could get very exciting come November.

1. Ohio State

The Buckeyes are in national title-or-bust mode. A host of veteran defenders led by edge rushers J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer and cornerback Denzel Burke decided to put off the NFL for one more ride in Columbus. Ohio State spent in the transfer portal on the best available player (safety Caleb Downs from Alabama), a quarterback who led his team to a power conference title in 2022 (Will Howard from Kansas State), a new center (Seth McLaughlin from Alabama) and a No. 2 tailback who would be most teams’ No. 1 tailback (Quinshon Judkins from Ole Miss). 

Plus, the Buckeyes brought in a former NFL and college head coach to call plays. Then, when that guy (Bill O’Brien) left for a head-coaching job, they hired another former NFL and college head coach (Chip Kelly) to call plays.

There can be no excuses for Ryan Day’s team. Not for losing to Michigan. Not for failing to go deep in the first 12-team College Football Playoff.

2. Georgia

Kirby Smart continues to produce the most consistent roster in America. As usual, Georgia has a nasty offensive line and a deep defensive line that includes a possible top-five pick (Mykel Williams) whose stats have been suppressed by the sheer talent around him.

QB Carson Beck won’t have Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey anymore, but Dominic Lovett and Dillon Bell seem ready to assume bigger roles. Also, the Bulldogs imported the tight end who plays the most like Bowers (Stanford transfer Benjamin Yurosek) with the hope of keeping a lot of the Bowers-inspired plays in the offense.

3. Alabama

That first weekend felt a little touch and go, but since then Kalen DeBoer has done just about everything right as he tries to replace the greatest of all time. Nick Saban left DeBoer a pretty spectacular roster, and DeBoer added to it with some of his favorite former Washington players. 

Getting offensive tackle Kadyn Proctor back from Iowa was huge for Alabama, and while there’s no sugarcoating the loss of Downs, getting Keon Sabb from Michigan to play alongside veteran Malachi Moore should help Alabama’s secondary remain formidable.

4. Oregon

Dan Lanning had the best roster in the Pac-12 the past two seasons and didn’t win the league. Now he enters the Big Ten with an even better roster — though probably not this league’s best — with sky-high expectations. It’s time for Oregon to start producing at the level of their talent.

The addition of QB Dillon Gabriel (UCF, Oklahoma) gives Oregon’s offense the same kind of steady, accurate presence it had in Bo Nix. Center Jackson Powers-Johnson is gone, but the rest of the line is intact and the tackle tandem of Josh Conerly and Ajani Cornelius should be one of the nation’s best. The defense brings back edge rusher Jordan Burch and adds some major experience in former Washington cornerback Jabbar Muhammad. The pieces are in place for a College Football Playoff run. Now the Ducks have to deliver.

5. Texas

Steve Sarkisian has solved one of the biggest issues that plagued Texas for more than a decade. The Longhorns weren’t developing talent. After eleven players got drafted, we can see that’s no longer and issue. But while most teams might fall off considerably after losing that many NFL-quality players, Texas feels capable of reloading. 

It helps that several of the members of the prized 2022 offensive line recruiting class (tackles Kelvin Banks and Cameron Williams and guard D.J. Campbell) are hitting their stride. Also, prized 2023 signees such as linebacker Anthony Hill have just scratched the surface. Defensive tackles Alfred Collins and Vernon Broughton rotated with stars Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat last year and now should assume bigger roles. Plus, the Longhorns filled needs in the portal with receiver Isaiah Bond (Alabama), receiver Silas Bolden (Oregon State) and tight end Amari Niblack (Alabama).

6. Michigan

Yes, Michigan lost a lot from the team that won last year’s national title. But Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham make up the nation’s best defensive tackle tandem, and Will Johnson might be the nation’s best cornerback. The defense will remain stout. And with Sherrone Moore now running the show, we can be reasonably confident that Michigan’s offensive line development will remain outstanding. 

In other words, don’t expect a huge dropoff. This might be Ohio State’s chance to strike back in the rivalry, but unless you have a roster that loaded, Michigan will remain a frustrating opponent.

7. Florida State

With so many stars gone from the team that started 13-0 and won the ACC, it’s difficult to pinpoint exactly where to put the Florida State Seminoles. But confidence is high that Patrick Payton and Marvin Jones Jr. can bring edge pressure similar to what Jared Verse brought, and defensive tackle Darrell Jackson Jr. has been waiting his turn after being denied an NCAA waiver to play last season. Expect Alabama transfer Malik Benson to be a frequent target of new QB DJ Uiagalelei, who comes from Clemson by way of Oregon State and who will get to face his former team on Oct. 5.

8. Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish bring back almost everyone from a stingy 2023 defense, and given a schedule that feels softer than the usual Notre Dame slate, that fact alone has produced a lot of 11-1 predictions. While the schedule may actual be a little tougher than assumed — the opener at Texas A&M is certainly no gimme — Notre Dame should be more effective on offense in 2024. Mike Denbrock, the coordinator who helped Jayden Daniels win a Heisman Trophy last year at LSU, is back for a third stint in South Bend. Meanwhile, the receiver group should be considerably deeper. Duke transfer QB Riley Leonard isn’t as polished a passer as Sam Hartman, but he’s a better athlete and should be able to take advantage of Notre Dame’s usually excellent offensive line. 

9. Ole Miss

The expectations are sky-high in Oxford, and some of you are probably wondering why I have the Rebels ranked so low. Basically, I need to see them beat an elite team. This roster is good enough to compete for the national title. But the games against Alabama and Georgia last season showed exactly where the Rebels need to improve if they want to reach the level of those two programs.

Not many teams can get appreciably better on the line of scrimmage through the transfer portal, but Ole Miss may have pulled it off. The Rebels get a visit from Georgia this year, but other than that, the schedule is manageable compared to some others in the SEC. Anything less than a playoff berth for Ole Miss would be a crushing disappointment. The question is how deep can the Rebels go?

10. Kansas State

I tend to fall in love with one or two players every offseason and then rank their teams irrationally high. I fear that’s what has happened here. I am driving the Avery Johnson bandwagon. The sophomore quarterback is one of the fastest we’ve seen in years, but he has the arm talent to truly weaponize his feet. (It is here that everyone needs to pull me back from any Lamar Jackson comparisons.)

The Wildcats have been absurdly competent throughout the Chris Kleiman era. There is no reason to believe that changes. Now sprinkle in a special talent at QB, and let’s see how far Kansas State can go.

11. Tennessee

Joe Milton is the cautionary tale of my offseason bandwagon driving. I watched him dominate an Orange Bowl against Clemson and then assumed he was a different QB than the one we saw at Michigan and in his first years at Tennessee. It has become abundantly clear that some of Milton’s limitations restricted what Tennessee could do offensively. Nico Iamaleava can’t throw a ball as far as Milton, but he’s a willing runner in the read option. That alone will open up Tennessee’s offense. Is Iamaleava as capable of piloting Josh Heupel’s system as Hendon Hooker was? We don’t know yet. But we do know the whole playbook is available and edge rusher James Pearce Jr. leads a defense that should be Tennessee’s best of the Heupel era. That’s reason for playoff optimism.

12. Penn State

If Penn State actually finishes in this spot, the fan base would be apoplectic. Because of the CFP selection rules, this would be the first team out since I don’t have any Group of 5 teams ranked between one and 11. The challenge for Penn State — the team that would have made the CFP six times since 2016 had the current system been in place — is to prove it can generate a dynamic enough offense to match what should be an excellent defense. If the Nittany Lions can, they’ll finish above this spot and make the CFP. If not, the ennui deepens.

13. Miami

Mario Cristobal has to fix some of the game-management gaffes that have hurt his teams through the years, but his roster-building skill in the trenches isn’t in doubt. And at a certain point, a team that has better linemen than most of the teams that it plays will win most of its games. That’s where Miami is right now. If Washington State transfer Cam Ward is as good as his transfer portal hype suggests, Miami could contend for the ACC title and the CFP.

14. Missouri

At first glance, it seems Missouri lost too much defensively to expect the Tigers to equal what last year’s team did. And the truth is we don’t know whether Drey Norwood and Toriano Pride can be as effective a cornerback combo as Ennis Rakestraw and Kris Abrams-Draine. Edge rusher Johnny Walker was the defensive MVP of the Cotton Bowl, but can he disrupt offenses as consistently as first-rounder Darius Robinson did? The answers to those questions will determine whether Missouri stays on the same level. With Brady Cook throwing the ball to Luther Burden, the offense should be just fine. But will the Tigers be playing shootouts every week?

15. Utah

The Utes’ bid for a third consecutive Pac-12 title got derailed before last season began when it became apparent QB Cam Rising wouldn’t be ready to return from a knee injury suffered in the Rose Bowl following the 2022 season. But now Utah enters the Big 12 with Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe back. Utah’s defense returns 70 percent of its production from last season. It would be a major disappointment if the Utes didn’t compete for the Big 12 title in their first year in the league. 

16. N.C. State

The Wolfpack found their groove defensively last year even as their offense struggled. The awkward situation that led to QB M.J. Morris shutting it down to preserve his redshirt opened the job for Coastal Carolina transfer Grayson McCall, who should be able to produce at a level N.C. State hasn’t seem until at least Devin Leary’s last healthy season.

Tony Gibson’s defense playing well is a given. If McCall and receivers such as ultra-reliable KC Concepcion develop a rapport, the Wolfpack can compete for the ACC title.

17. LSU

The Tigers lost a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback and two first-round receivers. Even though they return a talented QB who has waited his turn (Garrett Nussmeier) and the best tackle duo in the nation (Will Campbell and Emery Jones) expecting the 2023 offense to be as good as the 2024 offense is asking a lot.

The defense, which was objectively awful in 2023, will have to be considerably better if the Tigers want to compete for an SEC title or a playoff berth. New coordinator Blake Baker did an excellent job at Missouri last year, but he might have had more to work with. He can start LSU’s defensive climb by letting linebacker Harold Perkins wreak havoc like he was born to do.

18. Clemson

Coach Dabo Swinney told us at the end of last season to buy Clemson stock. After the Tigers were the only non-service academy team to take zero transfers, it’s difficult to believe Clemson will be much different than last season. The Tigers have some elite players — defensive tackle Peter Woods, for example — but unless they’ve finally struck gold at receiver for the first time since Tee Higgins left, they’re still going to be playing toss-up games against talented opponents. If everything breaks right, Clemson can win the ACC again. But can the Tigers compete with the nation’s elite — which build their rosters more efficiently — if they do reach the tournament?

19. Arizona

We assumed when coach Jedd Fisch left for Washington that much of what made the Wildcats so successful down the stretch last season would leave with him. Instead, led by receiver Tetairoa McMillan, QB Noah Fifita and cornerback Tacario Davis, the core group stuck together. Much of the signing class of 2022 remains, and that group will lead Arizona into the Big 12 with big expectations in coach Brent Brennan’s first year.

20. Auburn

The biggest mistake Hugh Freeze made in year one was abdicating playcalling duties. (What is it about Auburn that makes elite playcallers think they shouldn’t call plays?) That error has been corrected, and now a coach whose playcalling once scared Nick Saban into trying to change the rules will be fully unleashed with new communication technology that allows him to say “Throw it to Cam Coleman on the dagger” directly into his QB’s ear from the sideline. If Auburn can avoid another New Mexico State situation this season, expect a significant jump.

21. Iowa

With Iowa’s schedule, the offense doesn’t even have to improve much for the Hawkeyes to win eight or nine games. But if the offense is better with a healthy Cade McNamara at QB and new coordinator Tim Lester calling plays, then we might be having serious discussions about Iowa’s CFP chances come November. Because the defense is still going to be great, and even the loss of punting maestro Tory Taylor isn’t going to keep the special teams from staying elite.

22. USC

Consider this a bet that Lincoln Riley has learned something about how to create a symbiotic practice environment that also allows his defense to thrive. Riley has never coached a bad offense, but other than the pandemic year, his team has never had an even average defense. We’re about to find out if that was Mike Stoops’/Alex Grinch’s fault or Riley’s fault. D’Anton Lynn can coach a defense. So if the Trojans don’t get better on that side of the ball, we know who to blame. (They’ll also struggle to make a bowl game.) But if USC gets better on that side of the ball — and the guess here is Riley is too smart to allow this to derail his career — it’ll be instantly competitive in the Big Ten. 

23. Oklahoma State

We counted out the Cowboys after the South Alabama loss last year, and Ollie Gordon II carried them to the Big 12 title game. Gordon is back along with QB (and presumably Dr.) Alan Bowman, and the schedule is manageable apart from a hellish back-to-back of Utah and Kansas State in late September. Even with all the newcomers, Oklahoma State should still be in the hunt for the Big 12 title. 

24. Oklahoma 

I don’t buy that Oklahoma is going to completely fall apart in its first year in the SEC. When sportsbooks initially set the Sooners’ 2024 win total, the number started at 6.5 before bettors hammered it up to 7.5. That still feels too low, even though Oklahoma does have to rebuild its offensive line. The Sooners will have their deepest defense of the Brent Venables era, and sophomore QB Jackson Arnold has a sky-high ceiling. That said, I also don’t expect Oklahoma to dominate in year one in the SEC. So if the Sooners go 8-4 and wind up around here, how happy are the people in Norman? We know they expect more.

25. Nebraska

No, Nebraska hasn’t made a bowl game since the 2016 season. Shouldn’t we wait until the Cornhuskers at least notch a six-win regular season before ranking them? Nah. The defense will be excellent. The offense probably won’t be actively sabotaging the team as it did multiple times last year. If it can stay out of the defense’s way, a bowl game is a given. Against this schedule, a somewhat capable offense could mean a pleasantly surprising final record.

Just missed: West Virginia, Texas A&M, Liberty, Kansas, Texas Tech, Louisville, Wisconsin