College football's Top 3 hot seat contenders entering 2024, how they can save their jobs

The temperature is rising outdoors as well as on the seats of some major college football head coaches as the 2024 season draws closer and closer.

During Friday morning’s On3 YouTube live stream, Andy Staples broke down the top three coaching candidates whose seats are the hottest heading into the 2024 season. Staples tabbed Florida’s Billy Napier, Arkansas’ Sam Pittman, and Baylor’s Dave Aranda as the leading candidates currently entering the season with their jobs in jeopardy, and detailed what each coach must accomplish to keep those jobs.

Take a look at Staples’ path to job security for all three here:

Billy Napier | Florida

“The thing about Billy Napier is he can make this all go away by having a good season,” Staples said. “Florida doesn’t want to fire Billy Napier. At the end of this season it’s going to cost like $26 million. I believe half of that would be due within the first couple of months. That is not a great situation, that’s a massive upfront payment combined with a massive payment you’d have to make to hire someone else. Florida does not want to do that. Florida would love if things worked out for Billy Napier.”

Staples doesn’t even think the Gators need to have some spectacular season in order for Napier to stay in Gainesville.

“I think if you go 7-5 with this schedule, you’re probably okay with that,” Staples said. “If you are 8-4 against this schedule, you are perfectly fine, because that means you probably did beat somebody who was competing for a College Football Playoff berth, and that is the goal. So, that’s the path to stay.

“He’s got to show he can win, period. It doesn’t matter whether he wins with DJ Lagway or someone else. He needs to show he can win, period,” Staples continued. “Because if he can’t at least crawl to .500 with these guys, he’s not going to get you what you want with DJ Lagway either. But if you can go 7-5/8-4 vs. this schedule with Graham Mertz, then that gets you excited.”

Sam Pittman | Arkansas

“The people around the program would love to see (him) succeed. They don’t want to fire him,” Staples said of Sam Pittman. “But if you look at the way things have gone, they certainly seem to be headed that direction if Arkansas doesn’t turn things around.”

Suffice it to say, Arkansas needs a winning season in ’24, no matter how beloved the Pit Boss is. In fact, Staples suggested the Hogs already have Pittman’s potential replacement on staff should the administration opt for a mid-season change.

“Bobby Petrino, the last coach to be truly successful at Arkansas, is the offensive coordinator for the Razorbacks this year,” Staples said. “If that’s not a … ‘Hey, if Sam doesn’t get it done, we slide Bobby in as the interim, he wins a couple games, we can have Bobby as the head coach again.’ That’s what that is. So Sam has to work his way out of this.”

In order to survive against a very difficult schedule, Staples outlined a set of must-win games: “Week 2, they’re going to Stillwater. Oklahoma State is one of the best teams in the Big 12. That’s a game, if you can go in and win, you can get a lot of forward momentum. You may have to go to Auburn and win,” Staples added. “But the rest of the SEC schedule is brutal — Tennessee, LSU, Texas, at Missouri. I don’t know if you’re winning those games even if you’re pretty good. So, he’s got to win one of those, I think, to keep his job.”

Dave Aranda | Baylor

Lastly, Andy Staples addressed Dave Aranda, who’s taken Baylor to greater peaks than Arkansas or Florida have seen under their current regimes. But there’s trouble in Waco, per Staples.

“Dave Aranda, the only one of these who’s won the conference (championship) at their school. They won the conference at Baylor in 2021. That, of course, engendered a lot of good will. That good will is now mostly gone,” Staples said.

But coming off 6-7 and 3-9 seasons the past two years, Aranda must get back into Big 12 contention in 2024.

“So what do they have to do? Be competitive in the Big 12. The thing about the Big 12, there’s a lot of teams that can compete for the conference title. We’re not looking at Baylor as one of those teams, it has to insert itself in that conversation. Can it do it? We’re going to find out,” Staples said. “Dave Aranda definitely has a chance to pull out of this. You look at that schedule, there’s a lot of coin-flip games. If you can win them, you’ll be okay.”