Comparing fourth College Football Playoff Top 25 to BCS formula prediction

After another week of College Football Playoff rankings, things are taking more definitive shape as the playoff picture unfolds. And the current CFP outlook looks a whole lot like the old BCS formula would.

The fine folks at BCSKnowHow.com have provided an updated look at what the BCS would look like this season and, at least at the top, the results are very similar to the actual College Football Playoff rankings.

The top six teams were exactly the same in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings and the BCS. There were some significant differences further down the rankings. Let’s check it out below.

1. CFP: Georgia | BCS: Georgia

Georgia continues to build an impressive resume, steamrolling Tennessee over the weekend to provide one of its more quality wins this season. With quarterback Carson Beck leading the way and star tight end Brock Bowers back following an ankle injury, the Bulldogs are firing on all cylinders.

The BCS sees it the same as the College Football Playoff rankings: Georgia is the nation’s best team. The two-time defending national champions just have to keep winning and they’ll be firmly in this year’s playoff.

2. CFP: Ohio State | BCS: Ohio State

Ohio State continues to feature what both the College Football Playoff selection committee and the BCS view as the next best resume after Georgia. The Buckeyes have a solid early season win over Notre Dame, as well as a victory over Penn State.

The Buckeyes will get a chance to add even more weight to the resume when they take on Michigan this weekend. That game will be a de-facto play-in game for the playoff given the Big Ten title game figures to be a bit of a mismatch this year.

3. CFP: Michigan | BCS: Michigan

Not far behind Ohio State in the BCS, Michigan will get its shot to jump the Buckeyes this weekend with a head-to-head meeting. The Wolverines have an impressive resume, if not an impressive set of opponents. Yes, Michigan’s schedule is a bit light at the moment, but it’s also true that the Wolverines have mostly blown out their opponents all year.

The BCS has had a pretty narrow margin between Ohio State and Michigan, even though they’ve flipped around once or twice since we began tracking this. The Wolverines, of course, will be hoping for one more flip of the rankings.

4. CFP: Washington | BCS: Washington

The BCS has had Washington at No. 4 prior to this week, so it was one step ahead of the College Football Playoff rankings committee moving the Huskies up ahead of Florida State. That move was the biggest change in this week’s playoff rankings.

Unbeaten right now, Washington has a clear path to the playoff. But because it’s so late in the season, it does make you wonder whether the Huskies could survive a loss. Win out and it’s no issue, though, Washington would be in the playoff.

5. CFP: Florida State | BCS: Florida State

Florida State dropped out of the top four in the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday, following the injury to starting quarterback Jordan Travis. The committee noted that the change was more about what Washington did in posting an impressive win than the Travis injury.

What will be key going forward for the Seminoles is showing there’s little drop-off from Travis to backup Tate Rodemaker. If they can do that, Florida State will still stand a chance at remaining very high in the rankings, possibly even grabbing a playoff berth.

6. CFP: Oregon | BCS: Oregon

Oregon has remained a consensus pick of the rankings committee and the BCS at No. 6, ahead of Texas and Alabama. The Ducks will have a shot to play their way into the College Football Playoff field down the stretch, with a likely Pac-12 Championship Game rematch against Washington.

It is worth noting that there is a rather large gap between Oregon and Florida State in the BCS rankings, while there’s a much, much smaller gap between Oregon and Texas and Alabama. Oregon has to take care of business down the stretch if it wants into the College Football Playoff.

College Football Playoff and BCS, 7-25

Rank	CFP	BCS
7	Texas	Texas
8	Alabama	Alabama
9	Missouri	Louisville
10	Louisville	Penn State
11	Penn State	Missouri
12	Ole Miss	Ole Miss
13	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
14	LSU	LSU
15	Arizona	Oregon State
16	Oregon State	Notre Dame
17	Iowa	Arizona
18	Notre Dame	Kansas State
19	Kansas State	Tulane
20	Oklahoma State	Iowa
21	Tennessee	Liberty
22	NC State	Oklahoma State
23	Tulane	James Madison
24	Clemson	Toledo
25	Liberty	Utah

The College Football Playoff rankings and the BCS don’t differ a whole lot in the top 15 or so, with the only really notable difference being Missouri is ranked at No. 11 in the BCS vs. No. 9 in the CFP rankings.

Two teams that the committee is higher on than the BCS are Arizona and Iowa. The committee has Arizona two spots higher than the BCS, while it has Iowa three spots ahead of the BCS.

The next major thing to note with the BCS is that it still heavily favors the Group of Five compared to the College Football Playoff rankings.

Tulane checks in at No. 19 in the BCS, compared to No. 23 in the playoff rankings. Meanwhile, Liberty ranks No. 21 in the BCS and just 25 in the playoff rankings. Even James Madison remains ranked at No. 23 in the BCS following a loss.

The inclusion of those Group of Five teams also helps knock out three Power Five teams from the playoff committee’s rankings: Tennessee, NC State and Clemson do not appear in the BCS rankings despite being top 25 in the playoff rankings.

Those are the major differences between the College Football Playoff rankings and the BCS this week.