Comparing penultimate College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings to BCS formula prediction

The second-to-last edition of the College Football Playoff rankings were unveiled on Tuesday night, giving us a great idea of which teams are in line for a possible playoff appearance. But what would the BCS look like?

Thanks to the fine folks at BCSKnowHow.com, we don’t have to wonder. They’ve put together a projection of what the standings would look like using the old BCS formula.

Take a look below. It includes some changes from the College Football Playoff rankings in a few key areas.

1. CFP: Georgia | BCS: Georgia

The Bulldogs go into the SEC Championship Game a firm No. 1, both in the eyes of the selection committee and in the old BCS formula. Georgia simply has to win to be in, and almost certainly in as the top seed in this year’s playoff. An SEC Championship Game against Alabama won’t be easy, though.

2. CFP: Michigan | BCS: Michigan

Michigan secured its place in the Big Ten Championship Game with a win over Ohio State, and the Wolverines can play their way into the playoff now with a win over Iowa. The Hawkeyes are tough defensively, but both the computers and the selection committee believe the Wolverines are the nation’s second-ranked team for a reason.

3. CFP: Washington | BCS: Washington

The Huskies will be in action this weekend when they take on the Oregon Ducks in a regular-season rematch for the Pac-12 title. It should afford everyone an even more clear look at Washington, which has gone undefeated to this point behind the laser arm of quarterback Michael Penix Jr. Once again, the path is pretty simple here: Win and you’re in.

4. CFP: Florida State | BCS: Florida State

Perhaps the first spot where the win and you’re in philosophy may get a touch dicey, Florida State checks in at No. 4 in both the CFP rankings and in the BCS. The Seminoles, though, no longer have quarterback Jordan Travis, leading many to wonder if a strong one-loss team might be able to leap Florida State. That remains to be seen, but Florida State can bolster its case with a win over Louisville in the ACC Championship Game.

5. CFP: Oregon | BCS: Ohio State

The first spot where the BCS and the human voters disagree, the BCS has Ohio State at No. 5, while the CFP voters have Oregon at No. 5. That difference could be meaningful, though it’s always possible that Oregon could still jump Ohio State with an impressive win in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Regardless, Ohio State would feel a lot better sitting at home this week at No. 5 than No. 6.

6. CFP: Ohio State | BCS: Oregon

No surprises here, the BCS has Oregon directly trailing Ohio State at this spot. Again, because Oregon will be playing this weekend and Ohio State will not, this ranking has to be considered tenuous at best. Still, it means an Ohio State playoff berth is not out of the question, though a handful of things would likely have to happen to ensure one.

College Football Playoff and BCS, 7-25

Rank	CFP	BCS
7	Texas	Texas
8	Alabama	Alabama
9	Missouri	Penn State
10	Penn State	Missouri
11	Ole Miss	Ole Miss
12	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
13	LSU	LSU
14	Louisville	Louisville
15	Arizona	Arizona
16	Iowa	Notre Dame
17	Notre Dame	Iowa
18	Oklahoma State	Tulane
19	NC State	Liberty
20	Oregon State	Oklahoma State
21	Tennessee	Oregon State
22	Tulane	James Madison
23	Clemson	NC State
24	Liberty	Toledo
25	Kansas State	Tennessee

The BCS rankings are much more in lock step with the College Football Playoff this week than we’ve seen in the last couple weeks, with spots 7 through 17 all being very, very similar. There were only minor one-spot flips in that range.

Where things started to diverge a little between the BCS and the College Football Playoff rankings was the bottom half of the top 25.

Specifically, the BCS continues to favor the Group of Five much more heavily than the human voters. Tulane checks in four spots above the CFP rankings at No. 18, while Liberty checks in five spots higher at No. 19. James Madison also works its way into the ranking at No. 23.

Those inclusions did bump some of the other Power Five teams in those slots, with Clemson and Kansas State falling out. NC State was also ranked considerably lower in the BCS at No. 23, compared to No. 19 in the CFP rankings.