Comparing second College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings to BCS formula prediction

The second set of College Football Playoff rankings debuted on Tuesday night, with a handful of changes at the margins but not a whole lot different in terms of the teams most directly in line for a potential playoff berth right now. But while the selection committee viewed it a certain way, the old BCS formula viewed things a little differently.

The fine folks over at BCSKnowHow.com have tabulated would-be BCS results for us so we can peruse them at our leisure. It’s well worth a look.

Let’s take a look today at how the second edition of the College Football Playoff rankings differs from the BCS, starting with the top six teams and then progressing to the rest of the field. Here we go.

1. CFP: Ohio State | BCS: Ohio State

The Buckeyes remain the favorite team for both the selection committee and the computers, a testament to the strength of schedule played so far and the results. While some have argued Ohio State doesn’t always pass the eye test, neither the humans or computers seem to take issue with that.

The bottom line is that Ohio State is in terrific shape to earn a playoff berth if it can win out. An undefeated Big Ten champion will definitely be in the College Football Playoff, especially one with wins over both Penn State and Michigan.

2. CFP: Georgia | BCS: Georgia

Last week the BCS liked Michigan for the No. 2 spot, but Georgia’s win over Missouri was enough to toughen up the resume and launch the Bulldogs into the No. 2 spot in the BCS this week. That moved it into alignment with the selection committee, which has had Georgia at No. 2 both weeks.

Georgia’s not likely to slip below here unless it loses going forward, as the schedule gets considerably more difficult down the stretch. Georgia will take on Ole Miss, Tennessee and Georgia Tech to close out the season as it eyes a three-peat.

3. CFP: Michigan | BCS: Michigan

Michigan slipped a spot in the BCS rankings this week, with the computers now agreeing with the selection committee on the Wolverines’ ranking. That despite a convincing 41-13 win over Purdue this weekend. It’s clear at this point that Michigan’s dominance will only get it so far given how light the schedule has been to date.

Now that concern starts to get erased, though, starting with this week’s road trip to Penn State. If Michigan can take care of that one, the lofty ranking will begin to feel much more justified relative to the other teams ranked up here.

4. CFP: Florida State | BCS: Florida State

Florida State has a decent resume, though it has lost some of its shine thanks to continued losses by both LSU and Clemson. Still, the Seminoles are unbeaten against an at least OK schedule, qualifying them for the final playoff spot in the eyes of both the College Football Playoff selection committee and the BCS right now.

The road isn’t terribly difficult going forward, with this weekend’s contest against Miami arguably the toughest left. A road trip to a struggling Florida team could prove interesting if the Gators can get it together in time, but that’s certainly no given.

5. CFP: Washington | BCS: Washington

Once again the BCS and the selection committee agree on the ranking for Washington, which checks in at No. 5, just below the playoff berths. The Huskies have been quite good and even have a really solid win on the resume in Oregon.

The good news for the Huskies is that even though they’re on the outside looking in right now, they still have considerable ammo on the schedule with ranked Utah and Oregon State games coming up, as well as a likely Pac-12 Championship Game. The Huskies still have everything to play for.

6. CFP: Oregon | BCS: Alabama

The first difference we have between the BCS and the selection committee this week is at No. 6, where the committee has Oregon and the BCS has Alabama. The BCS actually has Oregon down at No. 8, validating the argument some have made that Texas and Alabama have a stronger resume than Oregon. Of course, the selection committee doesn’t see it that way.

How the one-loss teams shake out going forward will be fascinating, if for no other reason than there doesn’t seem to be a consensus right now. Oregon can make a case, as can Alabama, as can Texas. Can any other one-loss teams push into the mix? Let’s see if the BCS gives us any clues.

College Football Playoff and BCS, 7-25

Rank	CFP	BCS
7	Texas	Texas
8	Alabama	Oregon
9	Ole Miss	Penn State
10	Penn State	Ole Miss
11	Louisville	Louisville
12	Oregon State	Utah
13	Tennessee	Oregon State
14	Missouri	Oklahoma
15	Oklahoma State	Tennessee
16	Kansas	Missouri
17	Oklahoma	Oklahoma State
18	Utah	LSU
19	LSU	James Madison
20	Notre Dame	Kansas
21	Arizona	Tulane
22	Iowa	Notre Dame
23	Tulane	Liberty
24	North Carolina	Iowa
25	Kansas State	North Carolina

The biggest thing that jumps out as far as differences between the College Football Playoff selection committee and the would-be BCS rankings is the placement of the Group of Five schools.

The BCS continues to like the Group of Five schools considerably more than the selection committee at present. While the committee had only one Group of Five team ranked, at No. 23, the BCS had three teams. It included James Madison at No. 19, Tulane at No. 21 and Liberty at No. 23.

That’s important because one of those programs, presumably, will be headed to a New Year’s Six bowl as the top-ranked Group of Five champion.

Some of the other individual differences that stand out between the BCS and the College Football Playoff selection committee are Utah and Oklahoma. Both are ranked considerably higher by the BCS than by the selection committee.

Utah is a whopping six spots higher in the BCS (No. 12) than by the selection committee (No. 18), while there’s a slightly smaller gap for Oklahoma in the BCS (No. 14) compared to the selection committee (No. 17).

But you can view all the differences between the College Football Playoff selection committee and the BCS for Week 2 above.