Comparing third College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings to BCS formula prediction
The third set of College Football Playoff rankings were released on Tuesday night and with them a move at the No. 1 position, with Georgia leap-frogging over Ohio State.
Recent wins pushed Georgia ahead of Ohio State in the eyes of the selection committee, proving that what happens on a week-to-week basis absolutely matters, even if teams sport the same record.
But what would the old BCS say about the recent moves? Luckily for us, we don’t have to guess. The fine folks over at BCSKnowHow.com have tabulated would-be BCS results for us so we can peruse them at our leisure. Let’s break down this week’s results.
1. CFP: Georgia | BCS: Georgia
Georgia is the consensus No. 1 team amongst both the selection committee this week and the BCS. The Bulldogs have ripped off back-to-back impressive wins over ranked Missouri and Ole Miss squads, and Saturday’s stomping of the Rebels made a real statement.
Given that Georgia’s strength of schedule is likely to remain quite high with games coming on the road at Tennessee and Georgia Tech before an SEC title game showdown with Alabama, all the Bulldogs have to do is keep winning. If Georgia wins out it should finish as the No. 1 team in the rankings.
2. CFP: Ohio State | BCS: Michigan
In an interesting discrepancy between the selection committee and the BCS, the computers actually have Michigan in front of Ohio State despite a perceived weaker schedule. Perhaps that says something about the waning quality of Ohio State’s win over Notre Dame degrading over time.
In any case, both Big Ten programs remain in position to qualify for a College Football Playoff berth if they keep winning. The showdown in two weeks will determine just how strong the case is for the winner to challenge for the No. 1 spot.
3. CFP: Michigan | BCS: Ohio State
The selection committee still has Michigan down at No. 3, which is likely a nod to a schedule that was pretty soft until the Wolverines took on Penn State. Now that game has provided at least a little bit of a buffer. And it’s not like Michigan hasn’t been winning in dominant fashion.
Until the Wolverines take a loss it’s going to be hard to ding them, even with the soft schedule. That’s clearly the position of the computers, which favor Michigan more than the selection committee at the moment.
4. CFP: Florida State | BCS: Washington
One of the points raised by ESPN’s panel on Tuesday night after the rankings reveal was that Washington might have a better resume than Florida State. The computers seem to agree with that line of thinking, with the Huskies having four quality wins versus really only one for Florida State (LSU).
Still, both programs will have a likely conference title game to bolster their resume down the stretch. For Florida State, that’s going to be the only real help at this point in terms of resume.
5. CFP: Washington | BCS: Florida State
While Florida State’s chances to pad the resume down the stretch are slim, Washington still has two quality games on the schedule: at Oregon State and at home against Washington State. Keep winning and the resume gets even stronger.
It’s hard to see Washington being left out of a playoff spot should the program win out; surely the Huskies would get in over the loser of the Michigan-Ohio State game. In any case, the computers like Washington right now today.
6. CFP: Oregon | BCS: Alabama
The No. 6 spot in the rankings belongs to Oregon in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s eyes, while the computers hand it to Alabama. The BCS likes the Crimson Tide over the Ducks and the Texas Longhorns.
That said, it’s worth noting there’s a pretty huge gap between Florida State and Alabama in the BCS, a gap that tells you there are definitely two tiers of teams remaining in contention for a playoff spot. It’ll be interesting to see if the anyone from the second tier can challenge for a spot.
College Football Playoff and BCS, 7-25
| Rank | CFP | BCS |
| 7 | Texas | Oregon |
| 8 | Alabama | Texas |
| 9 | Missouri | Louisville |
| 10 | Louisville | Penn State |
| 11 | Oregon State | Ole Miss |
| 12 | Penn State | Missouri |
| 13 | Ole Miss | Oregon State |
| 14 | Oklahoma | Oklahoma |
| 15 | LSU | LSU |
| 16 | Iowa | James Madison |
| 17 | Arizona | Utah |
| 18 | Tennessee | Notre Dame |
| 19 | Notre Dame | Tulane |
| 20 | North Carolina | Tennessee |
| 21 | Kansas State | North Carolina |
| 22 | Utah | Liberty |
| 23 | Oklahoma State | Iowa |
| 24 | Tulane | Kansas State |
| 25 | Kansas | Arizona |
One of the first areas where the computers and the current selection committee aren’t really in lock step is Missouri. The selection committee has the Tigers ranked at No. 9, while the BCS has Missouri down at No. 12. That’s a pretty hefty gap.
One other massive discrepancy is Iowa, which checks in at No. 16 in the selection committee’s eyes, while the BCS has the Hawkeyes all the way down at No. 23.
The other thing to continue to note and monitor is that the computers really like the Group of Five considerably more than the selection committee. Only one Group of Five team is ranked in this week’s top 25 by the selection committee: Tulane at No. 24.
Meanwhile, the BCS has three Group of Five teams ranked: James Madison at No. 16, Tulane at No. 19 and Liberty at No. 22.
So much for the College Football Playoff providing greater access for the Group of Five, right?
In any case, you can see all of the differences between the College Football Playoff selection committee’s rankings and how the projected BCS rankings would look like above.