Pete Thamel explains 'inevitable creep' of future conference expansion among major Power 5 programs

College football has changed right in front of our eyes. The days of the Power Five are no more, with the Big Ten and SEC really separating themselves from the pack. Adding USC/UCLA and Texas/Oklahoma has put the two conferences over the top in every facet of the sport.

For now, the dust has settled on conference realignment. But neither the Big Ten nor SEC are going to stop expanding. ESPN’s Pete Thamel explains how schools are going to gravitate toward them instead of the conference seeking out new members. There are still factors to consider but those are getting less important by the year.

“There are two power conferences,” Thamel said. “Eventually, the inevitable creep is going to be for those teams to migrate to those conferences. Now, it’s college sports. Nothing is simple. There’s contractual complexities and there’s historic rivalries and there’s geography — which is becoming less of a barrier but still a barrier. At the end of the day, I think the creep is going towards where those two leagues are going to define college athletics.”

To figure out why the Big Ten and SEC are succeeding, just look at the television deals. Big networks are shelling out billions of dollars to broadcast the conference’s events, mainly football. The Pac-12’s falling behind is well documented, proving how large the financial gap between the other three from the Power Two is.

“The environment is now set where there is two,” Thamel said. “If you are the Pac-12 or the Big 12 or even in the ACC (schools)  — as long as there is a financial gap… you are going to want to get to the right side of the boat. Those are the magnetic forces that are going to shape college sports.”

ACC sits in an interesting position with schools wanting to leave

If the Big Ten and SEC are taking over, three other former Power Five schools are left to battle it out with one another. The Big 12 and Pac-12 have gone back and forth, while the ACC has been lonesome. Problems have circulated on the east coast but there have not been discussions about addition. It’s been about subtraction.

The ACC has members wanting to jump ship, most likely in favor of the Big Ten and SEC. However, the legal situation is quite complicated — even for somebody as plugged in as Thamel. Nonetheless, programs are attempting to leave.

“The way the ACC sits right now contractually it’s a legal thicket,” Thamel said. “I can’t tell you how that’s all going to get unwound, when it’s going to get unwound. The ACC, there is some sort of ‘if’ lingering there. When you hear the grumblings from Florida State, you hear the grumblings from Clemson. The unruly seven that have been chatting with each other about escape plans.”

College Football Playoff could play a role

Not so much the elephant in the room but the College Football Playoff is a major factor Thamel points out for the future of CFB. The 2023 edition will mark the final four-team edition before moving onto 12-teams with five conference champions earning an automatic bid.

Depending on how the revenue is distributed, Thamel says a conference may be able to compete with the Big Ten and SEC. Where those two really begin to separate themselves is when money is handed out based on how many representatives you have in the 12 teams.

“Could a very competent third league emerge and could we have four leagues? Probably,” Thamel said. “I think some interesting nuances that shape the landscape that aren’t talked about much are this 12-team playoff. How does the money get separated?

“This is a new, multi-billion dollar pot that is going to come in. Do players get some of that money? Will that money be divided up the way it is now or if four SEC teams and four Big Ten teams make it, do they then get three-quarters of the money that comes?”

You would have to believe non-Big Ten/SEC conferences will be arguing for a fairer share of the pie. Otherwise, the new Power Two is going to be raking in the most money on an annual basis. And when you’re raking in the most money on an annual basis, you will dominate conference realignment.