Cooper Flagg vs. Ace Bailey: The battle for On3's No. 1 player

Monday’s release of the updated 2024 On3 150 saw Duke small forward signee Cooper Flagg remain in the No. 1 spot. Moving up to No. 2 in the update is Rutgers forward Ace Bailey.

On3 first moved Bailey into the top five in our March 2023 update at No. 4. He then moved to No. 3 in the June 2023 update where he remained for the following two updates before jumping into the No. 1 conversation for Monday’s update. As we wind down the regular season and head into state playoffs, Flagg and Bailey are currently the two front-runners to finish this cycle in the top spot. 

Let’s take a look at where things stand in the race for 2024’s No. 1 overall prospect. 

Cooper Flagg Has Been There

Cooper Flagg first flashed on the national scene the summer between his freshman and sophomore year of high school. It was then he led the U17 USA Basketball team in rebounding (10.0), blocks (2.9), and steals (2.4). This included a 17-rebound, 8-steal, and 4-block gold medal-winning game against Spain. Flagg was the second-youngest player on the team.

As a sophomore, he led the top five ranked Montverde (FL) Montverde Academy in blocks (2.2) and steals (1.6). Flagg then went on to lead Nike’s EYBL E16 Circuit in scoring (26.9) and blocks (4.5). Currently this season as a senior, he is leading No. 1 ranked Montverde Academy/FL in points (16.8), rebounds (7.9), steals (1.5), and blocks (3.0). Keep in mind, Flagg reclassified this summer.

Flagg is a 6-foot-8 forward who shines on the defensive end of the floor. In fact, he has some of the best defensive instincts I have scouted in my decade-plus in the business. His perimeter defense, especially in the passing lanes, is elite among his peers. And he might be the best shot-blocker in this recruiting cycle. 

Offensively, Flagg has good feel with the ball in his hands. He processes quickly, especially in the pick-and-roll, and the ball rarely sticks. His three-point shooting has also developed this season, shooting 37.1 percent from beyond the arc this high school season, after shooting 34.3 percent this summer during the EYBL regular season.

Ace Bailey Flashes Upside

Throughout the process, Ace Bailey has flashed a high ceiling. As a sophomore, when he first moved from Chattanooga, Tennessee to Powder Springs (GA) McEachern High you could see the highlight plays. The camera lenses found the above-the-rim finishes and the weak side blocked shots and his video clips spread on social media. 

Jump to his junior season, and you see a 6-foot-8 forward, with length and athleticism, that can make shots. That is when the intrigue moved him into On3’s top ten, in October of 2022. 

Bailey is a shotmaking forward and that is the piece of his game that pops. He takes and makes tough shots, routinely, and when he gets going, he can ring off a lot of points quickly. With Bailey’s size footwork and high release point, he is able to create spacing and advantage at each level of the floor, and beyond the three-point arc.

Bailey competes. While oftentimes the biggest player on the floor, he still chases rebounds in and out of his area. And when his motor is running on the defensive end of the floor, there are a lot of deflections and blocked shots.

The Race for No. 1

Both players have undeniable high upside. Both players also have questions. The flashes that each player shows are unique among their peers. The quick-twitch and explosive athleticism, the agility, and fluidity, along with their size and length put them in an exclusive tier. 

A look across the landscape of today’s NBA, and you see the value of having game-changing wings. Ten of the top 20 paid players in the NBA are wings. No matter the exact wing archetype, whether it is a play-making wing, a two-way wing, etc., many of the NBA’s best teams are anchored from the wing position.

Watching Cooper Flagg, and the defense pops immediately. His ability to dictate the flow of the game, from the defensive end of the floor is unique among high school prospects. And while Flagg has natural basketball instincts, the jump shot and self-creation still need work. While he has improved his three-point shot, pull-up shooting and shooting off movement can be streaky. When his feet are set, he has consistent balance and knocks down shots regularly as defenders close out. Flagg has been a consistent free-throw shooter over the last two high school seasons and during Nike’s EYBL regular season. 

Flagg has performed on the biggest stages, and has consistently been one of the best players on each court he has walked on. The floor is high with him as you know what you are going to get. But the ceiling is also high, as he continues to get better, and is not a finished product. 

With Ace Bailey, creating shot opportunities is not an issue. He uses footwork and a high release to be able to get a clean look on most possessions. However, his shot selection has been consistently questionable, and within that, Bailey puts little pressure on the rim in his scoring. Synergy has clipped seven of Bailey’s 23 games this season. While it is a smaller sample size, it provides a glimpse into his scoring opportunities. Sixty percent of Bailey’s shots in these games were jump shots, where he shot 37.8 percent. Of the 98 field goal attempts charted in these seven games, 60 were from three, 18 from the mid-range, and 20 at the rim. 

Through those seven games, Bailey also averages 12.9 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 1.9 blocks per game. It is clear to see his shot-making prowess with a projectable frame, his competitiveness to rebound and his upside on defense are all things that project as he moves forward. Add that within a lengthy 6-foot-8 frame, and you can see multiple possible archetype outcomes for Bailey that have found success at the highest level of basketball. 

Going through this process we take into account each player’s career arc. Each cycle’s first ranking will come after their freshman season. And the 2024 class will end with ten updates. Each update is a snapshot in time — a thorough evaluation of each player’s strengths, weaknesses, development, and projection over time. 

In the 2024 recruiting cycle, through its nine updates, there have been three players at the top of the ranking. Flagg entered the ranking at No. 1 and Bailey has steadily climbed his status through each update. And right now, they are the two front-runners as we head into the final ranking.

Evaluation is constant, and we still have the balance of the regular season, high school playoffs, and post-season all-star games to settle this conversation. Will Ace Bailey unseat Cooper Flagg at No. 1 for the 2024 cycle?