Could Oklahoma play playoff spoiler in 2024?

The SEC will welcome two new programs to the league this fall, but while Texas has sucked up all the oxygen in the conference realignment deck shuffling, Oklahoma quietly has one of the most interesting teams in the country in 2024. 

Coming off a 10-3 season in Year 2 under Brent Venables, the Sooners will make the transition to a new conference with a new starting quarterback (former 5-star phenom Jackson Arnold), a pair of new coordinators (former North Texas head coach Seth Littrell with Joe Jon Finely and Zac Alley at DC) and five new starting offensive linemen. 

Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal, with six games against preseason Top 15 teams (Tennessee, Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama and LSU) — four away from Memorial Stadium. 

And yet, despite a win total of just 7.5, are we sleeping on the Sooners’ chances to exceed expectations and make a run at the College Football Playoff in the expanded 12-team field? Could OU be better than we think this fall?

Why Oklahoma could play spoiler, make the CFP

Jackson Arnold is among the most exciting sophomore quarterbacks ready to take the sport by storm this fall, as Oklahoma willingly let Dillon Gabriel, who led the Big 12 in a number of passing categories last season, walk to Oregon in favor of starting the burly blue-chip underclassman. 

In his lone start in 2023, Arnold had some struggles in the bowl loss to Arizona (three turnovers), but he also threw for 361 yards and has the tools and talent to emerge as the No. 1 quarterback in the SEC by season’s end. 

The Sooners are going to score points in 2024, as Arnold is surrounded by a top-end unit of playmakers. Purdue transfer Deion Burks (47 receptions, 629 yards and seven touchdowns) might be one of the best portal signees of the entire 2024 cycle. Burks is lightning quick and flashed an immediate synergy with Arnold over the spring. Burks also pairs well with Jalil Farooq, Nic Anderson and Andrel Anthony, all of whom return in 2024. Tailback Gavin Sawchuck (744 yards, 6.2 per carry with nine touchdowns) was one of the top freshman in the Big 12 last season, and OU also added UT Martin running back Samuel Franklin (1,378 yards and 11 touchdowns) from the portal, too. 

The offensive line is a major question mark, but if you’re going to trust an assistant coach to piece together a functional unit, it’s Bill Bedenbaugh. The Sooners grabbed four potential starters from the portal in December, and recently added SMU’s Branson Hickman, who projects to be the team’s center in 2024. That’s a lot that needs to coalesce over the summer, but the group made strides this spring and isn’t short on starting experience. 

Defensively, Oklahoma was inconsistent in 2023, but that was still a marked improvement for a unit that was outright terrible in Venables’ first season. OU actually finished No. 21 in defensive success rate and led the Big 12 in tackles for loss. Unlike in Year 1, the Sooners had an edge defensively, and played with much better fundamentals. As a unit, they return nearly 80% of their production (8th nationally), and added some quality pieces recently, too. 

The heartbeats of the team — linebacker Danny Stutsman and safety Billy Bowman — are both back, while OU dipped into the portal for some much-needed beef along the interior. The Sooners won a big battle against LSU and Texas for TCU defensive tackle transfer Damonic Williams, and they landed Louisville tackle Jermayne Lole as well. 

In an effort to spike the pass rush, Venables recruited Miami (OH) edge Caiden Woullard (who had 9.5 sacks and double-digit hurries in 2023) to help out Ethan Downs, which should give the Sooners one of the better edge duos in the SEC this fall. 

Lastly, the Sooners are optimistic 2023 5-star signees PJ Adebawore, a freaky, bendy pass rusher, and safety Payton Bowman are ready for breakout sophomore seasons as well.  

That’s what happens when you stack Top 10 recruiting classes on top of one another, and fill holes around the rest of the roster through the portal: You have an exciting team full of promise. 

The only question is how high is OU’s upside?

“This team’s got tremendous potential, but this is a game of performance and a game of doing, not a game of talking and potential,” Venables told ESPN in a sit-down last month. 

“We need to have a great offseason, and the level of our commitment will determine what type of team that we’re going to have and be able to compete week in and week out in a conference that can be unforgiving.”

Venables didn’t panic after an ugly first season in Norman, and he’s made the necessary tweaks for Oklahoma to be successful in its first season in the SEC. The Sooners are going to have to catch some breaks, and they really need their patchwork offensive line to come together quickly, but the parts are there for OU to surprise in 2024. 

Only five SEC teams — Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss … and Oklahoma — rank in the Top 20 both offensively and defensively in ESPN’s SP+ preseason rankings. 

So why can’t the Sooners push for a playoff spot along with the rest of them?