Dear Andy: Could the Big Ten and SEC have zero Heisman Trophy finalists?

We’re watching history, and you have questions…

From Justin:
Dear Andy,
As of this morning, the Heisman Trophy finalist front runners look to be Travis Hunter, Cam Ward, and Ashton Jeanty.  What are the chances the Big Ten and SEC get shut out of finalists for the ceremony in New York?

I’d say the chances are zero that the Big Ten and SEC get shut out on finalists, but whether those players actually wind up in New York is another story. But we’ll get to that in a second.

First, let’s have a frank discussion about Colorado receiver/cornerback Hunter and Boise State tailback Jeanty, who under normal circumstances wouldn’t wind up in real consideration for the Heisman. But if they keep doing what they’ve done for almost half a season, they should be seriously considered this year. Why? Because they’re each doing something most of us have never seen.

The NCAA banned the two-platoon (separate offensive and defensive units) in 1953 and didn’t allow it again until 1965. Since then, a few players have been two-way stars. Michigan’s Charles Woodson, who won the 1997 Heisman, was football’s best cornerback and he also contributed as a receiver and a kick returner. Georgia’s Champ Bailey also starred at receiver and cornerback. More recently, Stanford’s Owen Marecic played running back and linebacker simultaneously. UCLA’s Myles Jack did the same for a time, but only because his team was perilously thin at tailback — and when he carried a lot he played less linebacker.

Hunter is playing nearly every snap on offense and defense. No one has done this in major college football in decades. What makes it even more astounding is how good Hunter is at both positions. His 46 receptions is twice what the next most prolific Colorado receiver (Jimmy Horn Jr.) has. Hunter is tied for third nationally among receivers with six touchdown catches. He’s doing this while also being his team’s best cornerback (and one of the nation’s best). Hunter has two interceptions. He’s reliable in coverage, and he often makes spectacular plays such as the forced fumble on the goal line in overtime that sealed a win against Baylor.

We may never see someone do this again. It’s truly spectacular.

And the crazy thing is Jeanty might be doing something similar. Through four games, Jeanty has carried 82 times for 845 yards and 13 touchdowns. He’s averaging 10.3 yards a carry, and he’s on pace for 40 rushing TDs assuming Boise State makes the Mountain West championship game. 

Since 1965 — I chose that year since that’s where our Hunter comparison starts — no player with more than 100 carries has averaged more than 10 yards a carry. If Jeanty plays 13 games before the Heisman vote, then he’s on pace for 267 carries. Barry Sanders won the 1988 Heisman Trophy with an NCAA record 2,628 yards on 344 carries. 

The closest recent season we’ve seen to what Jeanty is doing was turned in by Darrell Henderson, who gained 1,909 yards on 214 carries (with 22 TDs) for Memphis in 2018. The last tailback to win the Heisman was Alabama’s Derrick Henry, who before the 2015 Heisman vote had 1,986 yards on 339 carries (5.6 average) with 23 TDs.

Yes, Jeanty plays for a Group of 5 team. But he’s carrying that team. The Broncos pushed Oregon to the limit in large part because Jeanty carried 25 times for 192 yards with three TDs.

I’m a Heisman voter, and I’m absolutely considering these guys for the award. But we know most Heisman voters are just going to choose the best quarterback on a playoff-bound team. I don’t have much faith in the rest of the electorate.

But with the 12-team playoff starting this season, I wonder if Hunter and Jeanty might have a real chance if their teams are in the mix for playoff berths. Colorado is 4-1, and if the Buffalos can beat Kansas State next week, they absolutely would have a chance to win the Big 12. That would put them in the CFP. Meanwhile, the Mountain West could be a UNLV/Boise State affair. If the Broncos win it, they might have the record and the resume to be the highest ranked Group of 5 champ and make the CFP.

Miami quarterback Ward is putting up great numbers on a good power conference team that should compete for a CFP berth, so he also fits the profile voters have preferred recently. 

As for the Big Ten and the SEC, I assume voters will throw lots of votes at the best QBs in each league. Alabama’s Jalen Milroe showed on Saturday that he deserves real consideration. If he keeps playing like he has so far this season and Alabama makes the CFP, then he’ll have a great chance of winning or at least being a finalist.

Whether the Big Ten produces a finalist probably depends on the kind of numbers Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel and Ohio State’s Will Howard put up down the stretch. USC’s Miller Moss and Penn State’s Drew Allar also could force their way in by leading their teams to CFP berths.

The reason I said New York is another question is because I’m genuinely curious if any of these players might miss the ceremony because their team has a CFP game the following week and they don’t want to miss practice. My guess is everyone will fly in for Saturday night, but if the winner has a first-round game, he’ll skip the usual car wash on Sunday and Monday and get back to work.

From Tyler:
There’s a potential championship controversy that no one is talking about and I need your help sorting out. What happens if both Army and Navy are undefeated in conference play after Thanksgiving?

Then we get two Army-Navy games, Tyler. The first one would be the American Athletic Conference championship game, and it might propel the winner into the College Football Playoff. 

The first meeting would take place on the campus of one of the teams on the first Saturday in December. Then they’d meet again the following week at Northwest Stadium (where the Washington Commanders play) in the official Army-Navy game the following week. The team that won the previous week might also be preparing for a CFP game the following Saturday.

Because of the timing of the first-round games, the selection committee can’t wait for the result of the traditional Army-Navy game before it makes the bracket. But if both teams continue to play as well as they have, at least they’d get to play before the committee decides whether to include one of them.

From Sean:
Is there a world where South Carolina loses three games but still makes the CFP with their tough schedule?

I don’t think we should limit this question to South Carolina. Georgia and Oklahoma probably deserve some consideration here as well.

Stats guru Brian Fremeau dove into strength of schedule on Wednesday. 

Toughest schedule played to date (in terms of expected losses an average FBS team would have against it) through Week 5, per FEI ratings:
3.2 Florida St
3.2 Michigan
3.1 Houston
3.0 Kansas St
3.0 Kentuckyhttps://t.co/k1neFvMcg9

— Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau) October 2, 2024

Notice that none of the teams mentioned above are on that list. But by season’s end, some or all probably will be. Let’s start with the Gamecocks since Sean asked about them.

South Carolina already has lost to LSU. It has beaten Kentucky (badly, and on the road), and the Wildcats just took down Ole Miss on the road. The Rebels, a team most of us predicted to make the CFP, play at South Carolina on Saturday. The Gamecocks also have to play at Alabama, at Oklahoma, at Clemson and host Texas A&M and Missouri.

I do think the selection committee will consider strength of schedule, and I do think a three-loss team might get considered on one condition: That team has to have multiple wins against CFP-bound teams.

South Carolina could lose two more times and still have multiple wins against CFP teams provided it beats the right ones. For example, the Gamecocks could lose to Ole Miss — if South Carolina wins Saturday, we may not be talking about Ole Miss making the CFP anymore — and Alabama but then beat Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Missouri and Clemson. There is a distinct possibility that two of the four teams on that list could make the CFP. 

We can play the same game with Georgia, which has a win against Clemson at a neutral site and a loss at Alabama. If the Tigers win the ACC or earn an at-large, that’s one. Georgia also plays at Texas, at Ole Miss and Tennessee. I don’t think the Bulldogs will go 1-2 against those teams, but if they did — and particularly if the losses are close — then they’d probably still be considered as long as the team they beat is in the field.

Oklahoma has a loss to Tennessee, and it has games with Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama and LSU remaining. Going 4-2 against that gauntlet likely would earn the Sooners CFP consideration. 

A Random Ranking

Christopher has requested that I rank the best track one songs. The youngsters who only listen on Spotify might not fully appreciate the joy of listening to a full album, but the best albums start with a banger. I’m going to make this ranking more random by only including the first track from an artist’s debut album. So no Smells Like Teen Spirit, because Nevermind was Nirvana’s second studio album. (This also will be light on hip-hop because of the preponderance of intro tracks or skits for track one.) This list is presumably the way each of these artists wanted to introduce themselves to the world. (Or, in some cases, introduce their solo selves to the world.)

1. Welcome to the Jungle, Guns ’N’ Roses, Appetite For Destruction
2. Brown Eyed Girl, Van Morrison, Blowin’ Your Mind
3. Purple Haze, The Jimi Hendrix Experience, Are You Experienced
4. Blitzkrieg Bop, Ramones, Ramones
5. Don’t Stop Til’ You Get Enough, Michael Jackson, Off The Wall
6. Head Like A Hole, Nine Inch Nails, Pretty Hate Machine
7. Straight Outta Compton, NWA, Straight Outta Compton
8. I Saw Her Standing There, The Beatles, Please Please Me
9. Bring da Ruckus, Wu-Tang Clan, Enter The Wu-Tang (36 Chambers)
10. Crazy In Love, Beyonce, Dangerously In Love
11. Runnin’ With the Devil, Van Halen, Van Halen
12. …Baby One More Time, Britney Spears, …Baby One More Time
13. Tim McGraw, Taylor Swift, Taylor Swift
14. My Name Is Jonas, Weezer, Weezer (The Blue Album)
15. More Than A Feeling, Boston, Boston