Could you buy a national title with unlimited funds and only players from this year’s transfer portal?

In the thick of the offseason, it’s prime time for hypothetical questions…

From Bud:
Here’s a fun hypothetical. If you had $40M to construct a roster out of this year’s transfer portal, does that team win the natty? — Just from this year’s portal, so guys who didn’t go in don’t count.

Sometimes you have to give credit where credit is due, and the competition did a great job here. This is a question Bud Elliott of 247Sports posed on social media this week, and it’s a fascinating thought exercise. Could you buy a national title using only players who entered the transfer portal this past cycle? Bud followed this tweet by increasing the dollar amount indefinitely, but that only reinforces the basis of the question, which is this: Is there enough talent in the portal in a given cycle to stock one national title team?

Ari Wasserman and I argued about this on Thursday’s episode of Andy and Ari On3. Ari thinks the answer is yes. I think you could buy a team that could make the College Football Playoff and possibly compete for a national title, but one worrisome position group in particular would keep anyone from stacking a roster that would have a prohibitive advantage.

I made a starting 22 for such a team.

Offense

WR Noah Thomas – Texas A&M to Georgia
WR Eric Singleton Jr. – Georgia Tech to Auburn
WR Kevin Concepcion – N.C. State to Texas A&M
OT Isaiah World – Nevada to Oregon
OG Rocco Spindler – Notre Dame to Nebraska
C Pat Coogan – Notre Dame to Indiana
OG Emmanuel Pregnon – USC to Oregon
OT Ethan Onianwa – Rice to Ohio State
TE Max Klare – Purdue to Ohio State
RB Makhi Hughes – Tulane to Oregon
QB John Mateer – Washington State to Oklahoma

Defense

DE Williams Nwaneri – Missouri to Nebraska
DT Lee Hunter – UCF to Texas Tech
DT Jaheim Oatis – Alabama to Colorado
DE Will Heldt – Purdue to Clemson
LB Mikai Gbayor – Nebraska to Missouri
LB Nikhai Hill-Green – Colorado to Alabama
CB Ethan O’Connor – Washington State to Miami
CB Mansoor Delane – Virginia Tech to LSU
S Dillon Thieneman – Purdue to Oregon
S Zechariah Poyser – Jacksonville State to Miami
CB Tacario Davis – Arizona to Washington

I love the offense. I also love the potential depth. I went with John Mateer (Washington State to Oklahoma) as my QB1, but if Carson Beck (Georgia to Miami) or Darian Mensah (Tulane to Duke) is more your flavor, go for it. I feel great about my starting receiver group of Noah Thomas (Texas A&M to Georgia), Eric Singleton Jr. (Georgia Tech to Auburn) and Kevin Concepcion (N.C. State to Texas A&M), but I’d also grab Nic Anderson (Oklahoma to LSU), Zachariah Branch (USC to Georgia) and Barrion Brown (Kentucky to LSU) for depth.

The offensive line was a surprisingly deep group. I filled out a starting five that I feel confident could match up with almost anyone, and could easily add five more backups who could fill in and keep the offense moving. I feel pretty good that my line could help me get to the national title game when my center (Coogan) and one guard (Spindler) literally started in last season’s national title game. I feel less great about my title chances knowing the reason they left Notre Dame is they might not have had starting jobs this year, which means Notre Dame’s offensive line could be a monster that might manhandle the unit I’m about to discuss.

The group that troubled me was the defensive line. I had to go with potential over production at one defensive end spot (Missouri-to-Nebraska transfer Williams Nwaneri). I took an oft-injured defensive tackle who could be great if healthy (Alabama-to-Colorado transfer Jeheim Oatis). After I chose my starters, I didn’t feel great about the depth. 

Think about it in terms of teams that have actually won the national title in recent years. Is this group as good as 2024 Ohio State’s starting four of J.T. Tuimoloau, Tyleik Williams, Ty Hamilton and Jack Sawyer? No. Could it compare to 2023 Michigan’s starting group of Josaiah Stewart, Mason Graham, Kris Jenkins/Kenneth Grant and Braiden McGregor/Derrick Moore? Absolutely not. And we won’t bother comparing this group to the 2022 or 2021 Georgia defensive lines. 

In other words, my portal team doesn’t have the talent or depth at a position group that national title teams usually require. Now, if I’m correct that 2024 Ohio State was the last superteam because of the realities of the portal/NIL era, then my portal team still has a chance to win the national title. Could this team hang with Penn State, Notre Dame, Texas or Georgia from 2024? Probably. I could see it making the CFP and possibly winning a game or two. But I also could see it suffering the same fate as 2024 Ole Miss, a similarly talented group (with a better defensive line) that went 9-3 and missed the CFP. 

From Russell:
Do you expect multi-year contracts to be signed by players directly with athletic departments post-settlement? If so, how many years do you think will be the norm?

Every coach in America would love if that happened right now. It would make their lives much easier. Unfortunately, it still may take some time. 

I don’t know if it would require full on employment status for athletes and a union and a collective bargaining agreement. There are plenty of gig workers in America. But I do think the schools are going to have to stop pretending that they’re not paying football players for playing football. 

At the moment, the NCAA still forbids pay-for-play. This is incredibly stupid, because every school is paying players to play through collectives, and if the House v. NCAA settlement goes through — and probably if it doesn’t — the athletic departments will begin paying players to play. Only they’ll still pretend they don’t. They’ll say they’re paying for marketing services or some other made-up reason.

Where this becomes an issue would be in contract enforcement. Schools are trying to make deals now that include clawback provisions that would require a player to pay some money back should he decide to transfer. While this isn’t as ironclad as a multiyear deal for a salary with an explicit non-compete, it could be an effective deterrent that could keep players at the same school.

The problem comes if the schools try to enforce those deals. The courts will see through the reason the school is paying the player. A judge will ask “Why should this college student pay you back if they accomplished the tasks laid out in order to receive payment?” Remember, none of those tasks is “playing football.” So if the player completed the required tasks (appearances, autograph signings, etc.) that the contract required, then the school probably can’t demand that money back. 

If the schools would like to stop pretending about why they’re paying the players, then it might be easier. A deal that has a clawback provision that requires a player to play, say, two football seasons for that school, probably is a little easier to enforce in court if the player tries to bail after the first spring practice.

From Jeff:
When do you need my Indiana football record breakdown?

Jeff has asked this before, and he can keep asking. He’s a long-suffering Indiana fan — who isn’t suffering so much anymore — who accurately predicted the Hoosiers’ season last year and kept receipts.

Wait until after spring practice, Jeff. Let’s get a better idea of the two-deep.

A Random Ranking

When you read this, I’ll be on a little postseason vacation. In honor of that, I’m going to rank the Vacation movies. And remember, there are no bad Vacation movies. There are only varying degrees of awesome. Just because one finished last doesn’t mean I didn’t say “Look kids, it’s Big Ben” after missing an exit on the way to the airport. Also, no reboots. If it doesn’t have Chevy Chase and Beverly D’Angelo, it doesn’t qualify.

1. National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation
2. National Lampoon’s Vacation
3. Vegas Vacation
4. National Lampoon’s European Vacation