Why wouldn’t Oregon coach Dan Lanning consider Texas A&M? The two-question test

Oregon coach Dan Lanning didn’t play coy Monday when he got asked about the Texas A&M job. He thoroughly and forcefully proclaimed that he intends to stay in Eugene. 

This wasn’t Miami Dolphins coach Nick Saban saying “I’m not going to be the Alabama coach” days before he became the Alabama coach. That was to get people to quit asking so he could figure out some things. Lanning silenced the questions by calmly explaining exactly why he’s staying.

He didn’t name Texas A&M because he didn’t have to, but he made it abundantly clear that he believes his current job is better than the Texas A&M job. And in November 2023, Lanning is 100 percent correct.

Why?

Because his decision passes the two-question test every coach should take before deciding whether to pursue another job.

“The reason we have something here that everybody else wants, that’s because of what our players, our coaches, the support that exist here at Oregon have created,” Lanning said. “I think I’ve been really, really clear here since Day 1, everything I want exists right here. I’m not going anywhere. There’s zero chance that I would be coaching somewhere else. I’ve got unfinished business here; there’s a lot that I want to accomplish here at Oregon. My No. 1 priority is being elite here at Oregon and we have the resources, the tools — anybody that can’t understand why you would want to be here at this place does not understand exactly what exists here.”

What exists in Eugene are two affirmative answers to the two-question test. These are the two questions:

1) Is my job in the Big Ten or the SEC?

2) If it is in the Big Ten or SEC, can I expect to frequently finish in the top three of the conference?

If the answer to both those questions is yes, then a coach should stay exactly where he is. There might be an exception if Alabama, Georgia or Ohio State opens, but in general, two yes answers to those two questions means a coach has nearly everything he needs for 2024 and beyond.

Had the Pac-12 never fallen apart, this would be a different conversation. Texas A&M probably would be the better job. But with Oregon headed to the Big Ten, this one actually is pretty easy. And that’s how we need to train our brains going forward. If you’re judging jobs based on a Power 5 universe, you need to adjust your thinking for a universe where there is a Power 2 and and a robust middle class in the ACC and Big 12.

The Ducks have played for the national title twice since 2010. They’ve made the four-team College Football Playoff. They’ve won their conference, which, while not as rugged as the one they’re entering, demonstrates the administration’s ability to provide the infrastructure to win. More recently, Oregon’s Division Street collective has assured the Ducks are competitive in the NIL space. If they win their next two games, they’ll likely get a rematch with Washington — possibly with a CFP berth on the line. Going forward, Oregon will play in a league where the top three will be all but assured spots in the 12-team CFP.

Texas A&M has more money. It has better access to nearby talent. But it also — for whatever reason — hasn’t been able to get over the competitive hump. While it’s easy to say it’s because of dysfunction or poor hiring, that doesn’t explain it all. A program with Texas A&M’s advantages should have been able to fall ass-backward into national title contention at least once or twice in the past 40 years. But it hasn’t.

Meanwhile, Oregon has worked deliberately and strategically to turn a pretty good regional power into a national brand. That O is recognizable from coast to coast, which is good, because Oregon’s coach has to work a lot harder to land elite talent because so little of it lives in the Pacific Northwest.

Given how Oregon recruited under Mario Cristobal and now under Lanning, the Ducks absolutely can have a program that finishes in the top three of the Big Ten at least every couple of years. Texas A&M cannot say that about the new SEC. The Aggies might have been the third-best team in the SEC at the end of their first season in the league in 2012. They were the second- or third-best team in 2020, but history has told us nothing that happened that season means anything in the long run. Other than that, they haven’t been able to sniff the podium. And now Oklahoma and Texas are joining to make the ascent more difficult.

Lanning knows that if he wants to win a national title at Oregon (or at Texas A&M or anywhere else) he has to recruit players like the ones he coached when he was the defensive coordinator at Georgia. Understanding what the roster has to look like puts him ahead of most of the Big Ten already. And he’s at a place that already knows how to win. That’s a weird, nebulous concept. But it matters a great deal. Just ask any NFL coach who has worked for a great owner or a terrible owner.

So why did I include Lanning on a list of potential Texas A&M candidates? Because I place people on those lists for one of three reasons:

1) I know the coach wants the job and has the resume to have a chance.

2) I know the school wants the coach.

3) The coach’s resume perfectly fits the profile for what that school seeks.

Lanning absolutely fits No. 3 and probably fits No. 2. I suspected he didn’t fit No. 1, but on Sunday he hadn’t given voice to that sentiment.

Now he has, and his decision makes perfect sense. Oregon passed the two-question test.

If your program doesn’t and the Aggies come calling, then you should worry.