Dan Mullen mulls how CFP committee handles Georgia, Penn State losses in conference title games

Dan Mullen isn’t usually one to engage in college football conspiracy theories.

But even the former SEC coach-turned-ESPN analyst couldn’t help but go down a bit of a rabbit hole when asked about how the College Football Playoff selection committee could handle losses by Georgia and Penn State in the SEC and Big Ten conference championship games, respectively, on Saturday.

No. 5 Georgia (9-3) faces No. 2 Texas (11-1) in the SEC Championship Game at 4 pm ET (ABC) Saturday in Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium, while No. 3 Penn State (11-1) plays undefeated No. 1 Oregon (12-0) in the Big Ten Championship Game at 8 pm ET (CBS) from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

While CFP committee chairman Warde Manuel, the Michigan athletic director, has made it clear conference runner-ups won’t be penalized for losing an additional game, it’s possible the 13-member committee re-evaluates their standing in the Top 12 and reshuffles the field for seeding purposes.

That’s where Mullen believes the real drama could unfold.

“It gets interesting. Because the argument comes, you’re not kicking Penn State out of the Playoffs with a loss. They’re still going to be in,” Mullen said Wednesday on ESPN’s The Pat McAfee Show. “Now it gets to the seeding, and you’re dropping them to a point where they’re head-to-head now going against Ohio State. And if you go head-to-head against Ohio State, now do you re-rank? Well they won head-to-head. That’s a really interesting one.”

The No. 6 Buckeyes, who beat the Nittany Lions 20-13 in early November, fell four spots following its Week 14 loss (13-10) to rival Michigan in The Game. Similarly, No. 12 Miami plummeted six spots and found itself on the outside of the 12-team field after its 42-38 loss at Syracuse last Saturday.

Although neither Georgia or Penn State are in danger of dropping out of the field, according to Manuel, it’s possible both could still fall from their current spots, thus forcing the selection committee to re-evaluate seeding, especially when it comes to first-round home sites.

Dan Mullen: UGA loss would be ‘headache’ for CFP committee

While the Bulldogs are ranked as the country’s top two-loss team at No. 5, a third loss could see Georgia tumble down the rankings, below fellow two-loss Ohio State and Tennessee – who are both idle this weekend – and behind the trio of one-loss SMU, Indiana and Boise State, especially if the Mustangs and Broncos win their respective conference championships. That could slide the Bulldogs to No. 10, just ahead of No. 11 Alabama and No. 13 Ole Miss, both of whom beat Georgia in the regular season.

“Georgia dropping down (with a loss) – again, I don’t think Georgia should be punished and kicked out of the Playoffs with a loss – but if all of a sudden they drop down and start getting close to Alabama, then where does head-to-head come back in?” Mullen asked. “Because then you start making the argument of: well, on the field, here’s Georgia and we have them ranked right next to Alabama, who they lost to, and Ole Miss, who they lost to. Why play the games? Why are we playing the games?

“It just becomes a headache for the committee at that point. And, listen, … I think they’re going to have to find a buffer team in between them to say, ‘Oh look, they weren’t right next to (Alabama and Ole Miss) so Georgia’s in automatically.’ Because if you put them right next to Alabama and Ole Miss, it’s hard not to drop them below them.”

Of course, that’s a debate for another day, and one the College Football Playoff committee could be faced with on Selection Day.