Dan Wetzel weighs likely conference realignment scenarios, long-term outcomes

The idea of conference realignment, specifically in the Pac-12, has college sports on very unsteady ground at the moment. We could see several teams preparing to make moves, or all out making them, based on information from across the country.

That’s why the thoughts of Yahoo! Sports’ Dan Wetzel were as interesting as they were when speaking with On3’s Andy Staples on Wednesday night. In his eyes, there’s no way to predict the madness of it all, especially once those at the television networks start to get involved.

“It’s hard to predict and it’s hard to put a number because a lot could happen. Let’s say the Big 12 goes to FOX and ESPN and says, ‘We’re going to go to 16. We’ve got Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah‘,” explained Wetzel. “And FOX and ESPN go, ‘Look, man, we’ve got to add three more. So that’s another $93 million (with Colorado too). We’re not paying that. We’re not just going to give everyone a prorated deal’. If they get that done? Then armageddon is going to hit. But what if it’s only 14?”

In that specific scenario, though, Staples has reason to believe that the Big 12 could in fact make the addition of three more schools work.

“I had somebody in the Big 12 yesterday tell me that they definitely have enough to do 14 and that they have a path to 16,” Staples said.

However, to get back to the Pac-12, Wetzel sees the Big Ten as a major factor in this. If they get involved with Oregon or Washington, that could be the end of that conference. With that said, he also sees a way in which the remaining teams out west bond together and just move forward.

“The Big Ten? They’re going to take this ethical high ground and say, ‘We’re not going to be the one that’ll kill it’. Also, they know, in the long run, they’re going to get them whenever they need to anyway,” Wetzel said. “If Arizona State and Utah stay and the Big Ten says we’re not going to take Oregon and Washington? Then there’s eight Pac-12 teams, you add San Diego State, maybe you add SMU or you add Boise. Whatever you do, it all chills out. It’s not that hard to see that happening also.”

At that point, Staples believes that the allegiance of the Pac-12’s schools would solely come down to playoff access. With media rights benefits and competition lacking in their conference at the moment, he says that their best teams would be willing to swallow that pill if they’d be able to routinely get access to the College Football Playoff.

“The thing is if you’re Oregon and Washington at that point? And Utah? You look at that and go, ‘Listen, there’s an automatic playoff berth for the six highest-ranked conference champs. We’re just going to trade that over and over again. We have access’,” said Staples. “People keep asking are they going to change that particular rule for the playoff when the new contract hits two years after the changes? I don’t think so if the Pac-12 is that, if it’s what we just said. If it is somehow disintegrated or merged with the Mountain West? Yeah, they probably drop that number to five.”

Again, once the wheels of realignment start to turn? It can be difficult to keep everything straight. Even so, Staples and Wetzel did their best to provide an outline and forecast, as uncertain as it may be, of what we could see coming up next down this path.