Does Billy Napier still calling plays at Florida inspire more or less confidence?

The assistant coaching carousel has almost stopped spinning, and you have questions…

From Maleko: Saw your post in the On3 Gators board. Any less confidence in the Florida over 6.5 wins with Billy Napier as playcaller?

I posted on Gators Online last week after Fanduel released its early 2025 win totals because Ari Wasserman and I both saw 6.5 next to the number and thought “smash the over.” Obviously, I have the Gators in the top 10 of my way-too-early top 25, so I think they’ll win more than seven games.

But I made that prediction with the full expectation that Napier will be calling offensive plays, and I’m a little confused as to why there were still people in late January and early February who thought he was going to let someone else call them. I answered a question in this very space on Jan. 9 about this very topic, and by that point it was pretty clear that Napier wasn’t going to give up playcalling.

For those who haven’t been following along through the great Zach Abolverdi at Gators Online these past few months, here’s a brief summary:

Nov. 7, 2024: Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin announces Napier will return as Florida’s coach. In that moment, Florida is 4-4. Starting quarterback Graham Mertz is out for the season. Freshman QB/future of the program D.J. Lagway is five days removed from being taken off the field on a cart during the Georgia game. The Gators are about to get smashed at Texas while starting a walk-on QB who transferred from Yale. Napier does not have a lot of leverage. So behind the scenes, it is agreed that a condition of his return is to hire a playcalling offensive coordinator.

Nov. 16, 2024: With Lagway playing with one healthy hamstring, Florida beats LSU 27-16. 

Nov. 23, 2024: With Lagway now up to 1.5 healthy hamstrings, the Gators stun Ole Miss and knock the Rebels out of the playoff race. Now Napier, who had no leverage three weeks earlier, has a little proof of concept that his offense — when led by Lagway — can score enough to beat top-level SEC teams.

Nov. 30, 2024: It isn’t pretty, but Florida puts the 2024 edition of Florida State out of its misery. Florida is now 7-5. Optimism is high that the Gators can build around Lagway, and suddenly Napier has a lot of juice compared to a month earlier.

For the next month, nothing happened. And when nothing happened I assumed Napier had used that newfound juice to slow-play the demands for a new playcaller. It is now quite evident that it’s exactly what he did.

But remember this: Napier knows he isn’t out of the woods yet. Florida has to improve, or he might still lose his job. That very critical circumstance does reframe the decision. It’s possible that Napier surveyed the landscape and realized that a capable coordinator whom he would trust either wasn’t available or would be prohibitively expensive. Remember, elite coordinators don’t jump to programs where the head coach is on the hot seat unless they’re guaranteed a boatload of money — even if the staff gets fired.

As I wrote last month, Napier chose the devil he knew over the (potentially high-priced) devil he didn’t know. It still may not work. But Napier has an ace up his sleeve that will continue to give him leverage: Lagway.

The chief concern is that the passing concepts in Napier’s offense will not allow the Gators to take full advantage of Lagway’s talent for creating explosive plays. But it’s also possible Napier hasn’t had a quarterback capable of making explosive plays like Lagway is. That includes Anthony Richardson, who was selected No. 4 in the 2023 NFL draft.

In Napier’s first two years at Florida, the Gators averaged eight yards per pass attempt in both seasons. That was better than all but one of Napier’s four Louisiana teams. (The 2019 team averaged 8.1 yards per attempt.) 

Last year’s Florida team averaged 8.6, but Lagway brought up the number because he averaged 10 yards per attempt. That was good for No. 2 in the country and more impressive because he was thrown into the starting role midseason. It stands to reason that with more experience and an offense crafted around him, Lagway will meet or surpass that number. If he does — and if Florida’s defense is merely adequate — Florida will win a lot of games. 

Perhaps that’s the calculation Napier made. As long as he has Lagway, an offense called by Napier will be better than an offense not called by Napier that doesn’t have Lagway. Whether a Florida offense called by someone else with Lagway would be even better than the current edition is beside the point at this point. Napier believes this will be good enough to keep him employed, and the season will tell us if that choice was correct.

What transfers would’ve made the difference for their old teams?

From Travis: Take one 2024 transfer player and put them back to their original team. Who would have the most impactful or be the most fun? Would Quinshon Judkins back on Ole Miss have gotten the Rebels in the College Football Playoff?

This is a great question. Judkins probably allows Ole Miss to beat one of Kentucky, LSU or Florida, and that’s all it would have taken to put the Rebels in the CFP.

Safety Caleb Downs and receiver Isaiah Bond staying at Alabama might have led to one more win, which also would have put the Crimson Tide in the CFP.

I’m also very curious how different Oklahoma’s season might have looked had quarterback Dillon Gabriel stayed in Norman rather than transfer to Oregon. It probably wouldn’t have changed the Sooners’ receiver injury situation, though. But it might have been worth another win or two. Gabriel was out the door pretty much the moment Mississippi State hired Oklahoma coordinator Jeff Lebby to be its head coach, so there probably isn’t much the Sooners could have done to keep him.

Could we see late QB transfer movement?

From Dan: Andy, will we ever see a quarterback enter the transfer portal in the spring, but not commit anywhere before the regular season almost starts? Like a veteran QB waiting for a team to lose a starter to injury in the NFL, as important as it is to get reps in an offense, at some point a team may get desperate. Michigan probably would have paid a pretty penny for an average QB last year after July if were available now knowing how that room turned out.

The reason those veteran QBs in the NFL can wait until just before the start of the regular season is because they’ve already played in an offense from almost every coaching tree. Hand Case Keenum, Josh Johnson, Josh Dobbs or Tyler Huntley a playbook and there’s a good chance they’ve already memorized a version of it. Teddy Bridgewater can coach his alma mater (Miami Northwestern) to a Florida state title and then join the Lions in December because Bridgewater had already played for seven different NFL teams and even more coordinators. 

A college QB may have played for two or three coordinators, but he likely can’t pick up an offense they’ve never played in within a few weeks. But perhaps this is Cam Rising’s plan. The former Texas and Utah QB led the Utes to two Pac-12 titles, so he might be able to help a team that finds itself in need of a signal-caller in camp.

It might have made sense for T.J. Finley, who played for LSU, Auburn, Texas State and Western Kentucky between 2020 and 2024. Finley has one season of eligibility left, but he decided not to parachute into a program. He’s at Tulane and will compete for the starting job in the spring.

A Random Ranking

It’s Valentine’s Day, so I’m ranking the classic candy heart messages through the years …

1. Be mine
2. Cutie pie
3. Kiss me
4. Fax me
5. Bae
6. Hep cat
7. Dig me
8. Text me
9. Call me
10. Always