Dear Andy: Which upset would produce maximum chaos and which would produce maximum clarity?

The debate on who is in or out of the College Football Playoffs are heating up, and you, the listeners and viewers of Andy & Ari On3, have questions. Let’s dive into the latest edition of Dear Andy to answer your college football questions.

From Tyler:
If chalk holds but you get to pick one semi-realistic upset to create maximum chaos, what is it? Same question but to create maximum clarity.

My picks are Georgia Tech over Georgia to throw the SEC superiority into a blender for the first, and Army over Notre Dame to both knock out Notre Dame and solve the Group of 5.

Let’s start with clarity first and then move to chaos, because I think Tyler’s suggestion for clarity might actually create more chaos. For one, I don’t think Army beating Notre Dame would “solve” the Group of 5. It would create a potential nightmare scenario for the Big 12.

Army beating Notre Dame and then beating Tulane — no easy feat, either — in the American Athletic Conference title game probably would vault the Black Knights into a top four seed (with a bye) as one of the four highest ranked conference champs. Meanwhile, Boise State is currently ranked higher than all of the remaining Big 12 contenders (Arizona State, BYU, Colorado and Iowa State). If Army vaulted over Boise State and Boise State kept winning, the Big 12 would have to hope the College Football Playoff selection committee either decided to move its champ above Boise State (making it the fifth-highest ranked conference champ) or decided to rank the Big 12 champ No. 12 behind a higher ranked Boise State.

The upset that would provide the most clarity probably would be Vanderbilt beating Tennessee in the final week of the regular season. That would end any argument that pits the two-loss Volunteers against  (presumably) one-loss Indiana. It also might help the SEC title game loser feel better about its chances to make the field. It also would produce a critical mass of “Champions of Life” callbacks.

I respect the Georgia Tech over Georgia pick as an agent of chaos. It would knock out the Bulldogs, it would cause a re-evaluation of the whole SEC as the best win for Alabama and Ole Miss would get reappraised. Texas, with no quality wins and a loss to Georgia, would absolutely have to beat Texas A&M and make the SEC title game or risk falling out of the bracket.

A Kentucky win against Texas this week wouldn’t produce as much of a chain reaction, but it would set up a pure elimination game between Texas and Texas A&M at Kyle Field next week. That would be delicious. 

An Indiana win against Ohio State this week would produce more clarity at the top of the rankings but more chaos near the cutline. An Indiana win would vault the Hoosiers into the Big Ten title game and the No. 2 or No. 3 ranking spot. (With a chance to take over No. 1 by beating Oregon.) It also would plunge a two-loss Ohio State into the mix with the cluster of two-loss SEC teams. That debate would be far more interesting than the two-loss SEC team versus one-loss Indiana argument that will rage if Ohio State beats the Hoosiers on Saturday.

The upset that actually upends the bracket probably isn’t any of these I mentioned. It’s the one that no one predicted. Usually, this is the week in the season such games happen. So get your popcorn ready.

From Jon:
What is the point of beefing up non-cons and the sec adding a ninth conference game with no financial incentive added when strength of schedule doesn’t seem to matter as much as wins and losses?

This is a common refrain from fans of SEC teams as the season barrels toward the finish, and it’s a legitimate question. Why should any team — regardless of conference — try to play a tougher schedule when the committee only seems to rank based on the loss column?

If the goal is to produce more entertaining games, then the committee needs to reward teams that schedule tougher opponents even if it means ranking those teams over ones that have fewer losses. This is well within the mandate of the committee, which is to choose the best teams, not the most deserving team. If the committee thinks a 10-2 team is better than an 11-1 team because the 10-2 team proved itself against a more difficult schedule, then the 10-2 team should be ranked higher. 

The SEC isn’t going to move to nine conference games without ESPN kicking in more money for the extra conference game. So the financial incentive will have to be there. But if there is no competitive incentive, then it’s also a reason to stay at eight.

My only caveat is that the SEC’s current model for an eight-game schedule would include only one fixed rivalry, and that won’t work. If the league intends to stay at eight games past 2025, it needs to find an eight-game model that allows for more fixed opponents. Because if Texas and Texas A&M are in the same league and don’t play every year, everyone involved in the decision should not only be fired but paraded through the streets like Cersei Lannister in Game of Thrones. 

I’ll be the septa ringing a bell and repeating the word SHAME.

From Justin:
Which of the following teams might be caught this weekend looking ahead to their rivalry matchup: Arizona State, Ohio State, Texas, Texas A&M, Ole Miss or other?

Arizona State (BYU), Ohio State (Indiana) and Ole Miss (Florida) all play teams this week that are better than the rivalry opponents they face next week, so they aren’t likely to lose because they were looking ahead.

Las Vegas thinks the answer to this question is Texas A&M, which is why the Aggies are only a 2.5-point favorite at Auburn.

The Tigers are 1-5 in SEC play, but they were competitive in four of the losses. Meanwhile, next week’s Texas-Texas A&M game is the long-awaited renewal of a bitter rivalry that hasn’t been played since 2011 and could be a play-in game for the SEC title game and maybe the CFP. It’s understandable that it is sucking up all the oxygen in the Lone Star State.

Heck, even Texas A&M coach Mike Elko couldn’t get through an answer about how the Aggies are trying to go 1-0 this week without a Freudian Slip.

Mike Elko was asked about the difficulty of keeping his team focused on Auburn with the November 30th rivalry game vs Texas just around the corner:

“Our focus is single-handedly on Texas…I mean Auburn…” 🫣

🎥 Texas A&M Athletics pic.twitter.com/SOZkS9etal

— The Next Round (@NextRoundLive) November 19, 2024

So cast your eyes upon the Loveliest Village on the Plains, because that is where Texas A&M must take the Tigers seriously or risk lowering the stakes of that clash with the Longhorns at Kyle Field.

A Random Ranking

Bruce would like me to rank all-purpose hot sauces. In other words, none of these are designed for a specific purpose. They’re the bottle your grandmother keeps in her purse.

1. Cholula
2. Valentina
3. Pickapeppa (original)
4. Yellow Bird Habanero Sauce
5. Tapatio Salsa Picante
6. Huy Fong Foods Sriracha
7. Nando’s Peri-Peri Sauce
8. Tabasco (McIlhenny Co.)
9. Louisiana Hot Sauce
10. Frank’s Red Hot (original)