Duke vs. Florida State point spread: Picking Blue Devils vs. Seminoles

One of the more intriguing games on the Week 8 slate is Duke vs. Florida State. Two teams tied atop the ACC standings, it’s likely to have a major impact on who plays in the conference title game now that divisions are gone.

The Seminoles are a 13.5-point favorite in that matchup, according to FanDuel. That half-point is significant when picking the game, though, according to Sports Illustrated and The Split Zone Duo’s Richard Johnson.

“I like Florida State here, especially -13.5,” Johnson told Andy Staples on Andy Staples On3. “Thankful for the hook on this.”

Saturday’s primetime showdown will be Duke’s first game since a tough loss to Notre Dame in the final minute two weeks ago. The Blue Devils are also likely without quarterback Riley Leonard, who suffered an injury on the last play of that loss. Leonard is a big part of the Blue Devil offense with his playmaking ability, which was apparent in Duke’s season-opening victory over Clemson.

His injury, and possible absence, is a big reason why Johnson is leaning Florida State to cover the two-touchdown spread.

“It’s pretty much a Riley Leonard-or-not thing for me here,” Johnson said. “But here’s the thing about if Leonard was playing. If Leonard was playing, he’s playing on a gimpy wheel, which really hampers — like against Clemson, obviously, you saw what he did against Clemson where he was able to escape the pocket and generate big plays by himself against a good defense. Even if he was playing in this game, he wouldn’t have that.

The Florida State offense is going to be quite the task for Duke this week. The Seminoles lead the ACC with 42.2 points per game and rank fourth with 449.3 total yards of offense per game.

According to Staples, the question for the Blue Devils will be how to contain Jordan Travis and Keon Coleman. Even if Leonard was a full go, it’s hard to say if Duke would be able to slow FSU down enough to cover.

“I think Florida State covers,” Staples said. “Leonard is day-to-day, according to Mike Elko. Mike Norvell says they’re preparing as if he’s going to play. I think Florida State covers here because I think you’re right. Even if he’s playing, he’s probably not 100%. And Duke’s offense is probably not capable of keeping up with Florida State, even though Duke’s defense will probably keep them from scoring the way they did against Syracuse and in other games.

“But I don’t know, though. Because the thing about the Florida State offense, Richard. Keon Coleman, when he gets going, there’s nobody who can stop him.”