ESPN BCS-style College Football Playoff rankings paint controversial picture

The highly-anticipated penultimate College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings will be revealed tonight on ESPN, setting the stage for a Championship Weekend where several playoff bids remain in flux.

Tuesday morning, ESPN data analyst Bill Connelly unveiled a BCS-style CFP ranking that reveals 17 teams still in the running to make the College Football Playoff‘s 12-team field. But, as was the case with the original BCS rankings, it wasn’t without controversy. Connelly cited two clusters in tonight’s penultimate ranking that could provide great clarity ahead of Selection Sunday.

Connelly expects the drama to center around where Ohio State falls after its surprising Week 14 loss to Michigan, and what it means for SMU ahead of the Mustangs’ ACC Championship matchup vs. Clemson. The second cluster involves how the CFP committee reacts to Miami‘s loss to Syracuse, and where it lands in comparison to the trio of 9-3 SEC teams – Alabama, South Carolina and Ole Miss.

Here’s how Bill Connelly’s BCS-style ranking model projects tonight’s field:

1. Oregon Ducks (12-0)
2. Texas Longhorns (11-1)
3. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1)
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1)
5. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2)
6. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2)

7. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2)

Following the demoralizing 13-10 loss to Michigan in The Game, Connelly projects the Buckeyes will fall behind fellow two-loss Georgia and Tennessee in the penultimate rankings.

That would push Ohio State out of the mix for a first-round home game and potentially send the Buckeyes on the road to Knoxville against the eighth-seeded Vols if the rankings hold.

8. SMU Mustangs (11-1)

Connelly’s BCS-style ranking has the Mustangs only moving up one spot in Tuesday’s rankings, slotting behind Ohio State and setting up a potential Playoff play-in opportunity in the ACC Championship game against Clemson.

A loss to the 3-loss Tigers might still allow SMU to remain in the 12-team field, so long as the Mustangs stay ahead of Indiana in the penultimate rankings. If they flip, Connelly projects SMU is out with a loss.

9. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1)

As mentioned above, Connelly’s BCS-style rankings have Indiana moving up from No. 10 but still remaining behind SMU in tonight’s Top 25 ranking.

The Hoosiers would slot into the No. 10 seed as the Big Ten’s fourth team in the final Playoff rankings, where it would travel to Athens for a first-round road game against SEC runner-up Georgia.

10. Boise State Broncos (11-1)

Connelly’s rankings has the Mountain West-winning Broncos climbing one spot into the Top 10, which would allow Boise State to secure the final Top 4 seed as the fourth-highest ranked conference champ.

So long as the Broncos secure their second-straight MWC title, they would be able to sit back and wait for the winner of the No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup, which the BCS-style ranking projects would Penn State and a Big 12-champion Arizona State.

11. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3)

This is where the controversy begins. The Crimson Tide become the biggest beneficiary of Miami‘s Week 14 loss at Syracuse, with Connelly’s BCS-style ranking sliding Alabama back into the Top 12 with tonight’s penultimate CFP Top 25.

While it will cause a stir, should the 13-member CFP committee ding the Hurricanes as projected, the Tide are in based on their head-to-head victory over South Carolina.

12. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3)

The aforementioned Gamecocks would get a nice boost from their rivalry game win over former No. 12 Clemson, but it might not be enough to leapfrog Alabama for the final at-large bid in tonight’s ranking.

That head-to-head loss to the Tide proves too much to overcome for South Carolina, at least for the BCS-style ranking, and the Gamecocks find themselves as the first team out of the 12-team field.

13. Miami Hurricanes (10-2)

Connelly’s BCS-style computer ranking has the Hurricanes falling precipitously from No. 6 to completely out of the Top 12 following their 49-38 loss at Syracuse last Saturday.

That said, Connelly acknowledged the 13-member CFP committee has ranked higher than the BCS formula has predicted “for weeks” and could throw a curveball into Connelly’s projection again.

14. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3)

The Rebels rallied from a first-quarter deficit to outscore rival Mississippi State 16-0 over the final three quarters for a 26-14 win in the Egg Bowl to make their Playoff case.

Unfortunately, based on Connelly’s BCS model, that won’t be enough to get Ole Miss over the hump and instead keeps the Rebels at No. 14 for a second consecutive week.

15. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2)

This is where the battle for the Big 12 championship will effectively serve as a Playoff play-in game for the CFP’s final guaranteed bid for the five highest-ranked conference champs.

The Sun Devils earned its way into the conference title game with an overwhelming 49-7 win over rival Arizona, while Iowa State advanced to Arlington with a 29-21 win over Kansas State.

16. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2)

As mentioned above, much like Arizona State, the Cyclones must win the Big 12 championship to earn the final Playoff bid as the fifth-highest ranked conference champion.

While Connelly’s BCS model currently has the Sun Devils as the higher ranked team, all that matters is what happens Saturday afternoon inside AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

17. Clemson Tigers (9-3)

Connelly’s BCS-style ranking projects the Tigers take a nosedive in tonight’s CFP penultimate ranking after falling at home 17-14 to South Carolina in Saturday’s regular season-ending rivalry game.

Still, Clemson remains in control of its own Playoff destiny and could win its way into the 12-team field with a victory over SMU in Saturday’s ACC Championship Game in Charlotte.

Projected College Football Playoff bracket

No. 9 Ohio State at No. 8 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Penn State
Winner faces No. 4 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Georgia
Winner faces No. 2 Texas in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Notre Dame
Winner faces No. 3 SMU in the Peach Bowl