ESPN Bracketology update: Joe Lunardi releases latest projections before first day of March

The final day of February is here with March just a few hours away. With that will come the madness of the NCAA Tournament.

On Friday, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi released the latest edition of his projection of the field in Bracketology. It didn’t see many shifts since his last one on Tuesday but sets up an important weekend of college basketball going into the first week of the postseason for some and the final week of the regular season for others.

The SEC again remained atop the seeding with 13 total berths with a chance at as many as 14 now considering the bubble but the Big Ten has added another team as well to have 11. That would mean they both would either tie or break the previous record from the Big East in 2011.

Here’s Lunardi’s update from this morning going into the first Saturday of March:

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

Last Four Byes: Baylor, San Diego State, Arkansas, Nebraska
Last Four In: Oklahoma, Indiana, Ohio State, Texas
First Four Out: Georgia, North Carolina, Boise State, Xavier
Next Four Out: Wake Forest, SMU, Cincinnati, Villanova

Again, the bubble is huge right now for the Southeastern Conference and the Big Ten. Arkansas is now all the way up to one of the Last Four Byes while Oklahoma and Texas, after mid-week losses, are among the Last Four In, and Georgia, following its upset win over Florida, has risen all the way to be the First Team Out. Ohio State is then down, while Indiana is up in the final line for the field, along with the Sooners and Longhorns.

The Big 12 saw some bubble movement too with West Virginia up off the bubble, Baylor down onto it as one of the final byes after losing four of five, and Cincinnati appearing in contention as winners of five of seven. All of this has then had a negative effect on the ACC with North Carolina now the Second Team Out behind the ‘Dawgs while Wake Forest and SMU have slipped down to the Next Four Out.

South Region – Atlanta

Auburn remained the No. 1 overall seed at ESPN after another blowout this week of 106-76 over Ole Miss. Now, at 26-2 overall with a two-game lead in the SEC, the Tigers will close with three straight opponents in the Top 20 starting tomorrow at Kentucky before closing at Texas A&M and against Alabama.

The South Region also had the most movement of the four for Lunardi. Ohio State and Texas are obviously down based on the bubble and would play in the First Four per that projection. Vanderbilt is then well within the field now as a No. 9, after two straight ranked wins over Ole Miss and Texas A&M, to give this region a potential total of five teams from the SEC.

1. Auburn vs. 16. Southern/American
8. Illinois vs. 9. Vanderbilt
5. Clemson vs. 12. Ohio State/Texas
4. Michigan vs. 13. High Point

6. Marquette vs. 11. VCU
3. Kentucky vs. 14. James Madison
7. Mississippi State vs. 10. San Diego State
2. Iowa State vs. 15. Montana

East Region – Newark

Duke dominated again this past week as the Blue Devils, who won their last two by an average of 40 points and five straight now by an average of 31, are now at 25-3 overall as the second of the No. 1 seeds at ESPN. However, despite a 16-1 record in the ACC, they have just a one-game lead for the league with that making their final three, two home games and the rematch of their in-state rivalry in the finale, more important.

Arkansas, after two wins this week to get to 17-11 overall, is then back in the tournament field as a No. 10 seed in their first year under John Calipari – with a projected first-round matchup against his former program in Memphis. UC San Diego is also up to a No. 11 as the automatic qualifier out of the Big West.

1. Duke vs. 16. Marist/Southeast Missouri State
8. New Mexico vs. 9. Connecticut
5. Missouri vs. 12. Yale
4. Purdue vs. 13. Lipscomb

6. UCLA vs. 11. UC San Diego
3. Texas Tech vs. 14. Towson
7. Memphis vs. 10. Arkansas
2. Tennessee vs. 15. Norfolk State

Midwest Region – Indianapolis

Alabama remained the third of the No. 1 seeds for ESPN after two straight wins, including a 38-point blowout of Mississippi State. That has the Crimson Tide, who are second in the SEC, at 23-5 (12-3) overall going into as difficult of a three-game stretch as you’ll see in the sport with consecutive Top 10 matchups at Tennessee, versus Florida, and at Auburn.

Bubble-related movement was then all that happened here in the Midwest. Baylor is down to a No. 10 at a game under .500 in the Big 12, including three straight losses with two bad ones for the resumé, while Nebraska is up to a No. 11 while still having lost three of four.

1. Alabama vs. 16. Bryant
8. Creighton vs. 9. Gonzaga
5. Maryland vs. 12. McNeese State
4. Arizona vs. 13. Akron

6. Kansas vs. 11. Nebraska
3. Texas A&M vs. 14. Utah Valley
7. Ole Miss vs. 10. Baylor
2. Michigan State vs. 15. Robert Morris

West Region – San Francisco

Houston, the top team in the Big 12, capitalized on an upset loss to become the final No. 1 seed at ESPN. That’s with the Cougars at 24-4 (16-1) overall as winners of seven straight and 20 of their last 21, including two straight wins in the Top 10 against Iowa State and at Texas Tech.

Florida is then down to a No. 2 after a 26-point comeback came short in a five-point loss at Georgia. The Gators, at 24-4 (11-4) overall and in third in the SEC, will now have to recover with two high-ranked games up next against Texas A&M and at Alabama before their finale versus Ole Miss.

1. Houston vs. 16. Omaha
8. BYU vs. 9. Utah State
5. Oregon vs. 12. Drake
4. St. John’s vs. 13. Liberty

6. Saint Mary’s vs. 11. Oklahoma/Indiana
3. Wisconsin vs. 14. Chattanooga
7. Louisville vs. 10. West Virginia
2. Florida vs. 15. Central Connecticut State