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ESPN CFP rankings show crew breaks down playoff stakes in Penn State-Ohio State matchup

Chandler Vesselsby:Chandler Vessels•10/29/24•

ChandlerVessels

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Penn State head coach James Franklin (Photo credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images)

There’s not a matchup in college football with more at stake in Week 10 than that between Penn State and Ohio State. The Nittany Lions and Buckeyes are battling for positioning in the Big Ten standings as both hope to make the College Football Playoff.

On ESPN’s CFP rankings preview show, analyst Joey Galloway noted how he feels there is less pressure on Penn State entering the game. The Nittany Lions are still undefeated and Ohio State is the only ranked team remaining on its schedule.

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“This season is set up pretty good for Penn State,” Galloway said. “They’ve played one ranked game so far. That was Illinois. They played them at home. Now they get Ohio State at home and the rest of their games are very winnable. If not now, when, Penn State? You don’t play Oregon. You don’t play Michigan. This is your season to get to the Big Ten Championship.”

Penn State has a 96% chance of making the playoff if it wins and 75% if it loses according to ESPN. Ohio State has an 89% chance of making it if it wins and 73% if it loses.

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The Nittany Lions have finished with double-digit wins in each of the past two season but have lost 11 of the past 12 meeting against the Buckeyes. They have not won a meeting since 2016 as James Franklin has a 1-9 record against them as coach.

However, as Galloway mentioned, this feels like the year Penn State finally pushes through. Ohio State, on the other hand has already dropped a game to Oregon this year. Even if it manages to win, it will still have to Indiana and Michigan to close out the regular season as Booger McFarland noted after Galloway.

“If you’re Ohio State and you win this game, I don’t think it’s gonna be that much of a lock like it was for Penn State,” McFarland weighed in. “Because Ohio State still has, down the road, an undefeated Indiana team. So it’s interesting how Penn State is a lock, but if Ohio State wins it’s not a lock.”

Fellow analyst Greg McElroy echoed that sentiment.

“It’s weird that Ohio State needs it more than Penn State right now,” McElroy said. “Just knowing that if Ohio State loses this one, they’re on life support. But if they win this one, they have a little room for error against Indiana and against Michigan down the road.”

It’s clear there’s a lot to play for on both sides, but Penn State can essentially punch its ticket to the CFP with a win. Kickoff for the game is set for noon ET at Beaver Stadium and will be televised on FOX.