Greg McElroy identifies college football win totals that stand out to him

ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy recently studied college football win totals for teams around the country and shared which ones stood out to him.

McElroy was looking for win totals that on the surface appear to be out of the norm for what the public would expect.

“When I look at the win totals on a year-to-year basis, I usually go through and I try to think as a member of the public. … And I’m trying to think emotionally when it comes to season win totals,” Greg McElroy said on the Always College Football podcast.

“I try to think about it from an emotional and fan standpoint. So I put myself in the shoes of a Texas Tech fan. And I think, ‘Oh, the win total’s there? I’m mad.’ So I go through and I look at the ones that make the least amount of sense to me based on what that team has accomplished in recent years.”

Greg McElroy shares college football win total unders he likes

For McElroy, there were two teams where the under stood out as far as bets he believes would be good to take.

“Two that stand out on the high side right now – I look at Michigan, fresh off a national championship. Fresh off a run of dominance in the Big Ten that we have not seen in quite some time. They’ve won however many games, however many consecutive years and you look at this year’s over-under season win total and it’s 9.5,” McElroy explained. “And if I’m a Michigan fan I’m thinking, ‘Wait, hang on a second. They don’t think we can win 10 games?’

“That’s going to elicit a reaction to me. So if I’m frustrated about how low the season win total might be, then I might lean towards taking the under. That’s all I’m saying. That one jumps out to me.”

While the team that won the national title last season is one that stands out. Another is a team that just missed out on the College Football Playoff.

“Similar with Florida State. When I look at Florida State, they’re at 9.5, as well. ‘Wait, hold on a second. Fresh off a College Football Playoff situation where we should’ve gotten in, we were 13-0 last year. We were 12-0 in the ACC. And you don’t think we can win 10 games?’ Like that elicits a reaction with me,” Greg McElroy explained. “So I would lean, all things considered, towards taking the side that Vegas doesn’t want you to take and that would be the under.”

Overs McElroy likes

Greg McElroy also shared a couple of overs that he likes for the 2024 season, including one where he used the same thought process as the unders.

“I look at Miami. Now Miami won seven games last year. And Miami didn’t look great in some of those wins and really didn’t look great in some of those losses. And I look at the win total and I’m sitting there at 9.5,” McElroy said. “And emotionally speaking, I’m like, ‘Oh, hang on a second. They think we’re going to win 10 games? Yes. Let’s go.’

“Because I think the public would automatically think, ‘Oh, Miami? They won seven games last year. Mario Cristobal can’t do it. I’ll take the under.’ I would think opposite of that. It’s kind of a fade the public type of mentality. So I think Miami, in this particular case, using this particular exercise, that one stands out at 9.5. I’m going to lean towards the over.”

Finally, McElroy used a little different logic for his last win total he likes. In this instance, he simply believes the team is better than it is getting credit for.

“The one that I thought made the least amount of sense to me, I look at what they bring back, I look at all the veterans that are returning, I look at the new-look Big 12 and not necessarily knowing what the pecking order’s going to be from top to bottom in that league. … I am really optimistic about Oklahoma State,” McElroy said. “They went to the Big 12 title game last year. And I look at that win total and I see 7.5. That, to me, felt extremely low.

“I’m not saying that I’m going to go out and put the mortgage on the over there, but it just felt a little low when taking into account all the things they have returning, including a top-tier running back, including a seventh-year quarterback, including all three wide receivers, including an offensive line that has a lot of veteran presence there, as well. And including a defensive philosophy that they’re going to be a year further down the road with their development and understanding of the system. So of all the different win totals that jumped out to me as far as ones that felt the most off, I would say Oklahoma State, at least to this point.”