ESPN College GameDay breaks down what North Carolina must do to beat Duke

The best rivalry in college basketball resumes Saturday night as North Carolina hosts Duke in a top 10 showdown. ESPN College GameDay is in town for the matchup, and the show broadcast live from the Dean Smith Center Saturday morning.

During the preview show, the crew broke down what it will take for UNC to beat the Blue Devils Saturday night. For ESPN analyst Jay Bilas, it was an easy answer.

“I think it all starts and ends with North Carolina’s defense,” Bilas said. “North Carolina lost to both UConn and Kentucky back-to-back and gave up 87 points in each of those two games. Since that Kentucky loss, Carolina’s giving up only 64 points per game. They’re the best defensive team in the ACC. They’re one of the top three or four defensive teams in the country.”

North Carolina is coming off of a 74-73 loss to Georgia Tech earlier this week. The Tar Heels weren’t at their best defensively in that matchup, giving up more than 70 points for the first time since the loss to Kentucky in December.

Still, Bilas thinks the performance against the Yellow Jackets was an outlier.

“This is a stingy defensive team, and they have to run Duke off the 3-point line,” Bilas said. “Duke’s an excellent shooting team. And make their smaller guards finish in the lane and make tough 2s without fouling over Carolina’s size. And Carolina’s a very good defensive rebounding team. Limit Duke to one challenged tough 2, and I think North Carolina’s got a great chance to win the game.”

While Bilas made a North Carolina win sound easy enough to get, ESPN’s Seth Greenberg pointed out that slowing down Duke’s offense won’t be easy.

The Blue Devils have five players averaging in double figures and can score points in a variety of ways.

Duke averages 81 points per game, shoots 48 percent from the field and nearly 39 percent from 3-point range.

“That sounds easier said than done,” Greenberg said. “That shot-making ability creates space. That spacing makes this team very hard to play against. It’s the versatility of this Duke offense that makes them so hard to defend.”

Duke is 16-4 (7-2) heading into the matchup, while North Carolina is 17-4 (9-1). These teams have separated themselves as the best in the ACC, and the winner of this game will be in a good position to earn the ACC regular season title.

The Tar Heels enter the game as a 4.5 point favorite, according to FanDuel.