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ESPN FPI ranks Big 12, predicts final record for every team in 2023 college football season

Alex Weberby:Alex Weber•05/22/23
big 12
LAWRENCE, KS - SEPTEMBER 07: A view of the Big 12 logo in the third quarter of an FBS football game between the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and Kansas Jayhawks on September 7, 2019 at Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, KS. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)

The Big 12 is in the middle of a hectic few seasons. Over the course of this year and next year, the conference will look completely different than it has in the last decade or so.

For starters, Cincinnati, Houston, BYU and UCF have all joined the league for this coming football season, while Texas and Oklahoma are still around for one more year before they bolt, giving the Big 12 14 teams in the 2023 season compared to the 10 they had a year ago and the 12 they’ll have starting in 2024.

Got all that? Good, because ESPN has just released some early some early projections from their Football Power Index (the FPI), which has generated a ranking and projected records for each Big 12 team based off of this fall’s schedule.

So take a look at how the FPI views the 2023 Big 12 compared to each other and the rest of the country.

ESPN’s FPI rates Big 12, predicts records

School (national rank) — FPI score | Projected Record

  1. Texas (5th) — 21.9 FPI | Record: 10.1-2.6
  2. Oklahoma  (11th) — 16.9 FPI | Record: 9.7-2.8
  3. TCU (17th) — 13.0 FPI | Record: 8.1-4.1
  4. Texas Tech (22nd) — 10.8 FPI | Record: 7.5-4.6
  5. Baylor (23rd) — 10.7 FPI | Record: 7.4-4.7
  6. UCF (26th) — 10.0 FPI | Record: 7.7-4.4
  7. Kansas State (27th) — 9.8 FPI | Record: 7.4-4.7
  8. Oklahoma State (38th) — 6.9 FPI | Record: 7.5-4.6
  9. Iowa State (43rd) — 5.6 FPI | Record: 5.8-6.2
  10. Cincinnati (48th) — 4.9 FPI | Record: 6.3-5.7
  11. Houston (54th) — 2.5 FPI | Record: 5.2-6.8
  12. West Virginia (57th) — 1.4 FPI | Record: 4.3-7.7
  13. BYU (60th) — 1.0 FPI | Record: 4.9-7.1
  14. Kansas (68th) — -1.2 FPI | Record: 4.1-7.9

There you have it. It’s interesting to see how some teams records really vary based on the schedule. Like, take Iowa State, who is ranked ahead of Cincinnati on the FPI but projected to finish with less wins. And they’re also right behind Oklahoma State in the metrics, but the Cowboys are supposed to win nearly two more games. The Cyclones must have a pretty darn tough slate of games if that’s the case.

Overall, though, the FPI is backing Texas as the team to beat in the Big 12, followed by the Sooners and then national runner up TCU in behind them. It’s all shaping up for once firecracker of a Big 12 football season before those top powers, OU and UT, finally migrate east.