ESPN's Joe Lunardi assesses where UNC, Tennessee stand in fight for No. 1 seed

Joe Lunardi has made a change to his No. 1 seeds following Thursday’s college basketball action. North Carolina has been bumped up following a win against Florida State in the ACC Tournament. Tennessee, who previously held the spot, was moved down while idle.

The race between the two programs is going to be a tight one down the stretch. If both keep on winning, there will be a ton of back and forth between who has the one-seed according to Lunardi, even if Carolina currently has the advantage due to being ahead scheduling-wise.

“They’re in as close of a race as we’ve ever seen for the last No. 1 seed,” Lunardi said. “I think what we’re seeing tonight — Carolina inching ahead. A little game of checkers between the two over the next two or three days because Carolina is a day ahead in their conference tournament schedule.

“Tennessee can hold serve tomorrow, maybe move back ahead in the afternoon, and then lose ground later. Eventually, the tournaments will end. Hopefully, the committee will keep working until the very end if they win out and break the tie.”

Both teams are favored to win their respective conference tournaments although the path is definitely easier for North Carolina. Duke‘s loss on Thursday to NC State might wind up hurting the Tar Heels, taking away another Quad 1 opportunity. From a NET ranking standpoint, Friday’s game against Pitt is the best-remaining matchup on the schedule.

Tennessee will play Mississippi State before potentially playing some of college basketball’s best teams in the SEC semifinals and championship. Ultimately, if both teams win their tournaments, Lunardi gives the edge to the Volunteers due to the quality of potential opponents.

“I think it would go in Tennessee’s favor,” Lunardi said. “Because their wins, presumably to get an SEC title, would be of higher quality than North Carolina’s. Particularly with Duke now out of the picture which would be the best win that Carolina could get. Tennessee could get a couple of that level. And then we’re assuming the committee takes into consideration a Sunday afternoon game. And frankly, there have been times where they have not.”

If things go well for them, UNC will play its championship game on Saturday night. Tennessee would cut down the nets right before the bracket is revealed on Selection Sunday.

A lot of late-season eyes are on the bubble and rightfully so. Figuring out who will barely get into the NCAA Tournament takes headlines every March.

But duking it out and earning a one-seed instead of a two can be the difference between making the Final Four or not. North Carolina and Tennessee are both hoping to win out and give the Selection Committee a tough decision.