ESPN predicts Big 12 order of finish for 2025 college football season

The Big 12 was as wide open as any conference was last season with seven teams within a game of the lead in the conference standings and nine within two games as tiebreakers played a big part in their postseason. That parity is projected to be there again for this upcoming season based on the latest statistics at ESPN.

ESPN’s Football Power Index has projected probabilities of team success, like winning the conference. That included the Big 12 with their numbers, as compared to that of the other three leagues in the Power Four, reflecting a conference race that can be won by several programs in 2025.

Here are the probabilities of teams to win the Big 12 this fall according to ESPN’s FPI:

1. Kansas State Wildcats – 19.9%

Kansas State is the top projected team in the Big 12. That’s with the Wildcats being as consistent as any program in the conference the past few seasons, winning nine or more games in each of the past three seasons and eight or more in eleven of the last fourteen.

Chris Klieman will have a core back from the last team there that went 9-4, namely QB Avery Johnson for his second season as their starter paired with RB Dylan Edwards in the backfield, after it cost itself from November on. That’s enough for K-State, at just under 20%, to lead in this projection as the team most likely to win the Big 12 and, with that, make their debut appearance in the College Football Playoff.

2. Arizona State Sun Devils – 13%

Speaking of Big 12 champions and teams in the CFP, Arizona State is in second place here, meaning a projected Big 12 Championship of K-State versus ASU. That’s after the Sun Devils, in year two under Kenny Dillingham, had one of their best seasons in school history in their debut in the league by going 11-3 by the end, winning the Big 12, and giving a game in their quarterfinal in the College Football Playoff.

Arizona State will have to replace the production of RB Cam Skattebo, which, figuratively and literally, carried them at times. Dillingham still has several pieces from that team, like QB Sam Leavitt in his own second season as a starter, WR Jordyn Tyson, and key members of the defense, though, to be right back in the race for the Big 12.

3. Kansas Jayhawks – 11.3%

Kansas disappointed last season in year four under Lance Leipold, finishing back under .500 and missing a bowl game with a record of 5-7. That said, ESPN’s FPI is projecting them to get back to their progress from the year prior by having them third-best statistic to win the Big 12.

Much of the Jayhawks’ hopes will again be on the play, and health, of QB Jalon Daniels back for his sixth season for the offense, especially having lost and having had to replace several offensive targets and, specifically, RB Devin Neal. If they can get some of that back on track, KU can prove that one winning season in their past sixteen seasons wasn’t an outlier, even to the point of competing for the Big 12.

4. BYU Cougars – 10.4%

BYU was then one of the surprises last season in the Big 12. The Cougars went 11-2 overall and were undefeated at 9-0 through mid-November before consecutive losses cost them their chances of making the Big 12 Championship or CFP.

Now, Brigham Young, reaching a decade under Kalani Sitake, is back in the mix in the Big 12 with the returns of multiple contributors, namely QB Jake Retzlaff and parts of what was the No. 1 scoring defense in the conference. They’ll now try to finish the job this time around with another record to be in contention, with the Cougars having won 10-plus games three times in the 2020s.

5. Baylor Bears – 10.3%

Baylor had their second-best season of their half decade under Dave Aranda last fall with, after winning out in the back half of the regular season, a record of 8-5. That got Aranda off of the hot seat and now has the Bears in the top-five as far as projections to win the Big 12.

Offense will be the focus of that with the returns of key pieces like QB Sawyer Robertson plus RBs Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass after having the second-best scoring offense in the Big 12. That could have them in the running again like they were by the end last fall for the Big 12.

6. TCU Horned Frogs – 8.5%

TCU found some middle ground last fall between their previous two seasons under Sonny Dykes with a record of 9-4. They’re now projected to be in the running again, as they were this past season, as they’re just outside the top-five here.

Like many of the others, offense is leading here with the return of one of the league’s best in QB Josh Hoover. From there with the team is the difference between them posting another successful winning season or getting into postseason conversations like they have twice so far under Dykes.

7. Texas Tech Red Raiders – 7.8%

If you liked points, Lubbock was your place to be last season in the Big 12. Texas Tech went 8-5, in year three under Joey McGuire, with the top offense and the second-worst defense in the conference.

The Red Raiders have now since fully invested into getting to that next level, in the league and overall, by bringing in the No. 1 class from the portal per On3’s 2025’s Team Transfer Portal Rankings. It’s now a matter of if they can score as many points, while allowing several less, in getting from seven or eight wins to a record that’ll have them in true contention in the Big 12.

8. UCF Knights – 4.7%

Finishing out the top half of these projections is UCF, who’s now again coached by Scott Frost. That’s coming off the final season under Gus Malzahn where the Knights went 4-8 for a second consecutive losing finish for his worst mark both ever and over four years in Orlando.

This could be high for Central Florida, especially with a roster overhaul with the amount of transfers from the coaching changes and the shot this is in bringing back Frost. Still, that said, UCF was undefeated, albeit in the American in 2017, the last time he was head coach of the program.

9. Iowa State Cyclones – 3.7%

Going into the back half of the projections, Iowa State finds itself here coming off their best season in school history. The Cyclones played for the Big 12 Championship, with their chance to go to the College Football Playoff, in finishing with an 11-3 record in year nine under Matt Campbell.

Now, reaching a decade under Campbell, Iowa State is another program powered by a returning quarterback in QB Rocco Becht, albeit without their top-two receivers from last season anymore. It’s just a wonder if it’ll be enough to repeat much of their success from what last year was in Ames.

10. Utah Utes – 3.1%

Utah, coming into last season as a projected favorite in the conference, disappointed with a tie for one of their three worst records under Kyle Whittingham at 5-7. One of the worst offenses in the league, due to the quarterback questions once QB Cam Rising went out again, led to those problems last year as the defense was still as stout as ever.

Whittingham has consistently had winning finishes over two decades as head coach of the program. With only a short time left for him in Salt Lake, though, the Utes, although still in the top-ten, won’t be going into this one as a favorite again in the Big 12 per ESPN.

11. Cincinnati Bearcats – 2.8%

Cincinnati actually improved in year two under Scott Satterfield from 3-9 in his debut to 5-7 in 2024. That was a disappointment, though, as they started at 5-2 before losing each of their final five to miss on bowl eligibility.

Cincy does have pieces that could get them back to what they were through the first half of last season. However, expected to be back on the line for just bowl eligibility, the Bearcats won’t be among the top projected contenders for the Big 12.

12. Colorado Buffaloes – 2.4%

Of all the teams that could’ve won the Big 12 last season, Colorado took the biggest fall from then to now. That’s obvious to see why, though, considering the losses of QB Shedeur Sanders, ATH Travis Hunter, and many others in the NCAA Transfer Portal.

The Buffaloes stuck it to many before last season was through by going 9-4 with tiebreakers being what kept them from the Big 12 Championship and, therefore, their chance at making a CFP. That said, year three under Deion Sanders, now without those superstars, will be the most reflective one yet of what this tenure will be in Boulder.

13. Oklahoma State Cowboys – 0.9%

Oklahoma State had their worst season in two decades under Mike Gundy, finishing at 3-9 after losing every game and finishing in last place in the Big 12. The Cowboys are now not expected to be in contention in the conference this season either with the first team with less than a 1% chance per ESPN.

It’s unknown what this season, with plenty of new names, could end up being in Stillwater. However, considering how this offseason went for him, Gundy will have to outperform this number to have his future better set with the ‘Pokes.

14. West Virginia Mountaineers – 0.6%

Another program going back to a previous head coach is West Virginia with them bringing back Rich Rodriguez. However, like UCF, WVU is a question mark just considering the sheer amount of turnover on the roster.

The Mountaineers went 60-26 (.698) during his past tenure in the 2000s. Still, with a 0.6% chance to win the Big 12 per ESPN, Rodriguez may have better seasons to come back in Morgantown than this one based on these projections.

15. Arizona Wildcats – 0.5%

Arizona was in a great place coming off of a 10-3 finish in what was the final year under Jedd Fisch. Even so, year one under Brent Brennan, going 4-8 for a tie of the second-worst finish in the conference after losing seven of their final eight, isn’t allowing for much optimism going into year two of his tenure.

The Wildcats lost a lot of the talent that was even on the roster last season. That could make this season just as long for those in Tucson with just a half-percent of a chance to win the Big 12.

16. Houston Cougars – 0.2%

Houston then closes out the ranking at barely any chance at all to win the Big 12 per ESPN. That’s after going 4-8 (3-6) in year one under Willie Fritz after going 4-8 the year prior as well under Dana Holgerson during their debut in the league.

The Cougars, while serviceable enough on defense, had the worst offense by far in the conference last season. Losses on top of that this offseason, especially from that defense, now has Houston in dead-last in the conference race according to ESPN’s FPI