ESPN predicts Big Ten order of finish for 2025 college football season

ESPN predicted the order of finish for the Big Ten via their FPI metrics ahead of the 2025 college football season. Not only that, they provided their chances to win the conference championship.

Keep in mind, the conference championship chances don’t necessarily reflect the entire scope of the ranking for each team. Generally, a higher chance to win the Big Ten means you’re at the top, but some teams are out of order from that perspective.

The ranking reflects how ESPN’s FPI ranks each team from top to bottom, including their FPI rating and percentage chance to win the Big Ten. Let’s start out with a national title contender.

1. Ohio State, 40.3%, FPI: 23.8

Ohio State is the favorite to win the Big Ten going into the 2025 season. Can they go back to back in national titles? Maybe.

Heck, it’s fascinating they won it all last year without winning the Big Ten. But they’re the current favorites and have stars Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs ready to run it back in 2025.

2. Penn State, 25.1%, FPI: 21.5

Penn State is a popular Big Ten and national title pick this season. They’re using the Ohio State model by running it back with their stars.

Drew Allar, Nick Singleton, Kaytron Allen and more are ready to get a little further than last year’s CFP semifinal. Penn State also lost the Big Ten title game to Oregon last year and currently have the second best chance to be victorious in Indianapolis.

3. Oregon, 19.1%, FPI: 20.5

The Ducks just won the Big Ten last year during their first year in the conference. A nice way to make a debut right?

To win it again is going to be a challenge of course. But like Ohio State and Penn State, Oregon is in the national title conversation if they can come out on top in this conference in 2025. A lot hinges on QB Dante Moore now that WR Evan Stewart is lost due to injury.

4. Michigan, 6%, FPI: 14.6

Now we dip in terms of percentages to win the Big Ten. Michigan is No. 4 in the conference but only has a 6% chance to win their first title under Sherrone Moore.

Everything hinders on the offense to get out of the mud and get the passing offense going. The defense has to replace some big time players, such as Kenneth Grant, Mason Graham and Will Johnson, but there seem to be good vibes in Ann Arbor this year.

5. USC, 4.2%, FPI: 13

Lincoln Riley hasn’t exactly lost faith, but the bar is a bit lower now. Just a 4.2% chance to win the Big Ten? Hey, it’s good enough for top five in the conference though!

USC needs a lot of improvement on defense, as usual. But it seems pretty interchangeable between them and Michigan, if you were going to bet on one of those teams of course.

6. Nebraska, 1.5%, FPI: 9.3

Matt Rhule and Nebraska winning the Big Ten? Well, there’s a chance to do it! It’s just a small chance for the Huskers in 2025.

The key will be QB Dylan Raiola taking the next step in his development. But they’ll have to exceed expectations in order to make the title game.

7. Washington, 0.8%, FPI: 8.8

Washington gutted out six wins last year to get to a bowl game. Now going into Year 2 under Jedd Fisch, also Year 2 in the Big Ten, Washington has bigger expectations.

Games against Ohio State, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin and Oregon look like the toughest ones. Not to mention going to Washington State in September. And if the Huskies aren’t at least a 10-win team, we can forget about them winning the conference.

8. Indiana, 0.9%, FPI: 8.3

Indiana might come back down to Earth this season after nearly stealing the Big Ten last year. Sure, they ran up against Ohio State, but still made the College Football Playoff. But winning 10 regular season games last year wasn’t even enough!

What does Curt Cignetti have for a follow-up campaign? It might not be totally surprising to see this team finish 9-3, or something in that ballpark, but winning the Big Ten is a big ask.

9. Wisconsin, 0.4%, FPI: 6.3

Luke Fickell and the Badgers seemingly have potential to get back to the top of the Big Ten. However, it all has to come together.

Billy Edwards Jr. is an intriguing quarterback after he transferred in from Maryland. The defensive line transfers are going to be key too.

10. Iowa, 0.6%, FPI: 6.3

Iowa finishing in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten? That’s how ESPN sees it. They also have a small chance to win the conference.

Mark Gronowski is at quarterback via the transfer portal, so perhaps he can bring a spark to the Hawkeyes’ passing game, finally. Kirk Ferentz should have a solid team again, but perhaps nothing special.

11. Minnesota, 0.3%, FPI: 5.2

PJ Fleck has been pretty consistent as the Minnesota head coach since 2017. But a Big Ten title still eludes him and the Gophers. 

They were close to Indy in 2019, going 10-2 and getting a share of the then-west division. But since then, Fleck and Minnesota haven’t won more than nine games in a season. You’ll likely get more of the same in 2025.

12. Illinois, 0.6%, FPI: 5

Bret Bielema had quite a squad last season, but the ESPN FPI is a little hesitant on the Illini within the Big Ten next season. Luke Altmyer is back at QB, so Illinois could have it better than most.

Are they in the upper tier of the Big Ten? Some seem to think so but winning the  conference is a long shot.

13. UCLA, 0.1%, FPI: 4.6

DeShaun Foster has a new quarterback in Nico Iamaleava after a much-talked about transfer saga. Is he the key to giving UCLA a lot of success in 2025? Maybe it’ll help!

But as far as winning the Big Ten, the other west coast schools have a much better chance to do that. Maybe in the future.

14. Rutgers, 0.1%, FPI: 3.5

Rutgers has made a bowl game two years in a row, but they’re still ways away from competing for a Big Ten title. Greg Schiano has to make sure to get his defense back on the right track but the offense seems to have figured it out.

Athan Kaliakmanis is the QB, his second year in the system, and Rutgers has plenty of young playmakers. This could be a competitive team in 2025, but ways away from the Big Ten.

15. Michigan State, 0.1%, FPI: 2.3

Jonathan Smith has a rebuilding job to do and perhaps making the postseason first should be the smaller goal. It’s been awhile since the Spartans competed for a Big Ten title and it’ll take a little while longer.

The ESPN FPI is low for the Spartans this season, so expect a best-case scenario to be in the middle of the pack. We’re sure they just want to stay out of the basement.

16. Maryland, 0.2%, FPI: 1.9

Maryland is in a bit of a rebuild, so winning the Big Ten won’t quite be on the docket in 2025. There are transfers across the board on offense, so it’ll be interesting to see how they mesh.

Following a 4-8 season, there might be pressure on Locksley to get it going this fall after three straight bowl wins. The Terps don’t want to get into a lull.

17. Northwestern, 0%, FPI: -3.6

What David Braun did in his first year can’t be understated. They went 8-5 and won the Las Vegas Bowl. Last year? 4-8 and the challenges are evident.

Braun will have to figure something out as the FPI gives them no chance to win the Big Ten. In fact, the Wildcats are one of two teams in the conference with a negative rating.

18. Purdue, 0%, FPI: -6.9

Barry Odom takes over after a successful tenure at UNLV. It was disastrous last season and there’s not much positivity in 2025. But, Odom could get something going.

But for right now, there’s a zero percent chance the Boilermakers win the Big Ten and their FPI is nearly at -7. Good luck.