ESPN predicts College Football Playoff Committee Top 12 after Week 4

Week 4 of the 2024 college football season was a thrilling one with several major matchups. With that, ESPN has once again predicted how the College Football Playoff Selection Committee would rank the Top 12 teams.

With the Playoff expanding to 12 teams this season, it’s important to remember that these rankings are not projections of the seeds. Instead, these rankings will help determine the seeding. That’s because the top four conference champions, regardless if they’re in the top four of the rankings or not, are going to get that first round bye. A fifth conference champion will then be in the field before the rest is filled out with the rankings as at-large bids.

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With all that in mind, here’s a look at how ESPN predicted the College Football Playoff Selection Committee would rank the top 12:

1. Texas Longhorns (4-0)

The Texas Longhorns are looking to go back to the College Football Playoff for a second season in a row. For the time being, it looks like the Longhorns are in line to make that push, with one of the most impressive wins in the country, having beaten Michigan on the road, and several dominant wins to go with that. Now, Texas needs to keep the good times rolling through SEC play.

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One concern for Texas has to be injuries. That included an injury that kept starting quarterback Quinn Ewers out of the Week 4 win over ULM. In his place, highly-anticipated prospect Arch Manning got his first start, throwing for 258 yards and two touchdowns with a pair of interceptions as well. The hope is to have Ewers back soon but Texas knows it can rely on Manning too.

2. Georgia Bulldogs (3-0)

The Georgia Bulldogs had a bye week in Week 4, but being off the field doesn’t seem like it hurt where Georgia stands as it relates to the College Football Playoff. That ugly win over Kentucky is still going to be a knock on the Bulldogs in conversations over the top spot. At the same time, as the season goes on, the win over Clemson looks even better.

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For now, Georgia needs to be focused on the road ahead. That includes a marquee game in Week 5 when Georgia travels to Tuscaloosa to take on Alabama. A win there and ESPN may need to reconsider where it projects Georgia to be ranked. At the same time, a loss could see the Bulldogs slip. From there, the schedule doesn’t get any easier with other games against Texas, Ole Miss, and Tennessee.

3. Tennessee Volunteers (4-0)

Tennessee was able to earn a statement win on the road over Oklahoma. It was an incredibly strong defensive effort, holding the Sooners to just 15 points, with most of that scoring coming after the game was well within hand. That win was so impressive, in fact, that ESPN jumped the Volunteers up to third in its predictions for how the selection committee is going to rank these teams.

As is the case with every team, the Volunteers are going to have several major tests ahead. With that, they can either solidify their spot at the top or potentially slip in these types of projections. For now, though, the Volunteers are one of the most exciting teams in the country on both sides of the ball.

4. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0)

The Ohio State Buckeyes came into the season with pretty high expectations as far as the College Football Playoff is concerned. To this point, the Buckeyes have only solidified themselves as one of the top teams in the country. That’s reflected in where ESPN is predicting they’d be ranked.

There is both an argument that Ohio State could be ranked higher and one that they should be ranked a little lower for the time being. After all, very few teams have been as dominant as Ohio State. At the same time, the non-conference slate for Ohio State hasn’t been overly strenuous. Luckily, as the Buckeyes get into Big Ten play, they’ll have plenty of opportunities to prove themselves.

5. Ole Miss Rebels (4-0)

Through four games, Ole Miss has been absolutely dominant. Outscoring opponents 220-22 through four games, Ole Miss has been absolutely dominant on both sides of the ball and undeniably looked like a Playoff team. The only real concern has been the strength of schedule to this point.

As ESPN points out, there is room to debate where teams like Ole Miss and Ohio State, both of whom have been dominant against weaker schedules to this point, should rank. Early in the season, a part of this comes down to splitting hairs between teams. However, there is a lot of season to go and plenty of time for Ole Miss to make its case for the CFP.

6. Miami Hurricanes (4-0)

The Miami Hurricanes finished non-conference play with another win to move to 4-0 on the season. Now, it looks like Miami is going to be the favorite in the ACC this season behind what has been a dominant offense in the month of September. Continuing to have success like they have to this point and it’s going to be hard for the selection committee not to have the Hurricanes highly ranked.

Miami will get credit to this point for two road wins, including one in a difficult SEC environment. Now, however, it’s important that the Hurricanes find a way to consistently win in conference play. That’s been a struggle under head coach Mario Cristobal but it’s still going to be a few weeks before Miami sees a ranked opponent.

7. Oregon Ducks (3-0)

The Oregon Ducks came into the season as one of the favorites to make it to the College Football Playoff this season. However, after a couple of close calls in the opening weeks, it looked like the Ducks had some questions to answer. At the same time, this is a team clearly full of talented players that is still in a position to have an impact this season.

For the time being, it’s hard to make a case for Oregon to be any higher than this spot. They’ll likely need to earn a big win or some more convincing wins to get there. Luckily, those opportunities are on the horizon, with Big Ten play starting up. That includes games against three teams that are currently ranked.

8. Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0)

Coming off a bye week, Alabama is getting ready to host Georgia. That game is going to be one of the early season matchups that helps to shape the race for the College Football Playoff and the SEC. A win would see the Crimson Tide propel up in the rankings but for now, they’re sitting eighth.

For now, ESPN predicts Alabama would be ranked eighth by the selection committee. That’s largely because the schedule hasn’t been particularly difficult and the Crimson Tide struggled in one of those non-conference games in a way other teams ahead of them didn’t.

9. Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0)

The Penn State Nittany Lions were back in action in Week 4 after getting an early bye week. It turned out to be an easy win for the Nittany Lions, with Penn State beating Kent State 56-0. The Nittany Lions had 718 yards while only giving up 67 yards in the win. It was a dominant effort.

At this point, Penn State is being held back from being ranked higher by the Playoff Selection Committee for a couple of reasons. The strength of schedule hasn’t been particularly difficult, especially given West Virginia‘s slow start. On top of that, Penn State struggled for a while against Bowling Green, meaning other teams have been more convincing.

10. Utah Utes (4-0)

There are certainly concerns at Utah about the status of quarterback Cam Rising moving forward. However, even without him, the Utes were able to go to Oklahoma State and walk away with a win. That’s largely because of the team’s excellent defense that travels very well.

For now, ESPN is predicting that Utah will be the top-ranked team coming out of the Big 12. That’s fairly impressive given how much parity is expected from that conference. For the time being, though, the Utes have the most impressive resume and eye test.

11. Missouri Tigers (4-0)

The Missouri Tigers needed overtime and a missed kick to overcome an upset bid from Vanderbilt on Saturday. Still, the Tigers did survive and for the second week in a row managed to get a close win at home. That has kept them firmly in the hunt for the College Football Playoff.

As ESPN explained, Missouri clearly has plenty of talent on its roster. That could give them a bump from the selection committee. However, it’s hard to make that case for the time being, given the close calls. Still, there’s plenty of season to go.

12. Michigan Wolverines (3-1)

The Michigan Wolverines are the only team that ESPN predicted would be in the top 12 of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee rankings with a loss. That’s likely given the loss came to a dominant Texas team and the Wolverines just added a win over a ranked USC. So, there’s enough to like in Ann Arbor.

There are still plenty of knocks on Michigan too. The quarterback position and the struggles that the Wolverines have had in the passing game could hurt them as the season moves along. At the same time, the Wolverines have an excellent defense and running game to carry the load.