ESPN predicts College Football Playoff Committee Top 12 rankings after Week 1

The college football season is underway. This season, in particular, is a unique one because of all the changes coming to the sport. That includes the expansion of the College Football Playoff from four teams to 12 teams, and ESPN is already taking a look at the rankings for the CFP after Week 1.

Under the new system, the top five conference champions as they’re ranked by the College Football Playoff Committee will earn bids into the CFP. Then, the following seven teams will be filled in with at-large bids based on the committee’s rankings. During the seasons, the committee is going to rank the teams as they always have, through the top 25.

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With all of that in mind, ESPN’s Heather Dinich released her predictions for how the College Football Playoff Selection Committee would rank the top 12 teams following Week 1.

1. Georgia Bulldogs (1-0)

The Georgia Bulldogs came into the season as one of the highest-ranked teams in the country. In Week 1, the Bulldogs didn’t do anything to change that perception of the team, as they dominated Clemson 34-3. Over the course of that game, Georgia averaged 7.5 yards per play on offense while holding Clemson to just 188 total yards and 46 rushing yards on the entire game.

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For now, there’s very little doubt that Georgia will be one of the top teams in the College Football Playoff rankings. After all, to this point, the Bulldogs have a win against a big-name opponent and they earned it in dominant fashion. Other teams either didn’t have the marquee opponent or didn’t look as good in the process.

2. Texas Longhorns (1-0)

The Texas Longhorns opened their first season as a member of the SEC with a blowout win over Colorado State. That may not have been the same level of opponent as Georgia played, but the Longhorns took care of business all the same and looked excellent in the process. Coming off a CFP appearance last season, for now, Texas looks good to be back there at the end of the year.

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As Dinich explained, “The selection committee has historically acknowledged teams that have star power and ones that leave no doubt against unheralded competition.” Texas has both of those things. The Longhorns have plenty of talent and everyone knows that. They’ve done the things they need to do so far. At the same time, this is relatively subjective with only one week played so far this season.

3. Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0)

Expectations are high at Ohio State this season. That includes expectations not just to make the Playoff but to be one of the teams competing for a national championship by the end. Through one game, head coach Ryan Day has his team rolling in that direction after beating an outmatched Akron team by 46 points.

The Buckeyes are clearly full of talent. That includes having freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith breaking onto the scene. He already looks like one of the best in the country at his position. Debate if the Buckeyes should be higher, but Dinich believes that they have a similar resume to Texas at this point.

4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-0)

Notre Dame faces a unique situation in a 12-team College Football Playoff. Only the top four conference champions can earn a first round bye. In other words, Notre Dame as an Independent can’t end up better than the fifth seed in the CFP no matter how well they do. At the same time, with so many at-large bids, there’s a larger margin for error.

Through Week 1, Notre Dame didn’t have many errors, though. The Irish went to College Station and beat Texas A&M in a hostile environment. It was a dominant defensive performance, in particular, for Notre Dame and now the Irish look poised to be ranked highly by the committee.

5. USC Trojans (1-0)

The USC Trojans being this high might be a bit of a surprise given how 2023 went and the preseason expectations for USC. However, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee is supposed to judge teams based on this season and this season only. To this point in 2024, USC has earned a high ranking, winning a marquee non-conference game against LSU and seemingly having a much improved defense.

Admittedly, it was just one game and how that game looks later in the season can change, but for now, that’s an important data point. That makes USC a little difficult to judge. They passed the eye test against an SEC opponent. However, as time goes on, that could become an outlier or change in terms of how the game is regarded.

6. Penn State Nittany Lions (1-0)

The Penn State Nittany Lions had a potentially tricky Week 1 game, traveling to Morgantown for a game against West Virginia. Despite a long weather delay, the Nittany Lions took care of business and dodged the upset bid, winning 34-12 with quarterback Drew Allar and the offense looking improved from last season.

Dinich explained that the impressive offensive effort contributes to where she’s predicting they’d be ranked. She also noted that by playing a challenging opponent, they could even be ranked higher. However, later in the season, this game will likely be judged by how well the Mountaineers play and how that could change the perception of this game.

7. Miami Hurricanes (1-0)

There was a lot of excitement around Miami entering the season. With transfer quarterback Cam Ward, some even predicted the Hurricanes would be a threat to win the ACC and make the College Football Playoff. Then, the Hurricanes came out and dominated in-state rival Florida in Week 1, announcing their presence.

Three other teams expected to be at the top of the ACC, Clemson, Florida State, and Virginia Tech, have already lost. In Florida State’s case, they lost twice to conference opponents. Because of that, Miami looks like the favorite in the conference to make it the CFP. At the same time, the Hurricanes need to prove they can have a consistent season under head coach Mario Cristobal.

8. Ole Miss Rebels (1-0)

Ole Miss opened the season with Furman, an FCS opponent. They’d win the game easily by a final score of 76-0. In the process, the quarterbacks combined to set a program single-game record for passing with 529 yards. It was hard not to be impressed.

Ole Miss comes into the season with high expectations and plenty of talent. So, the expanded CFP looks to be on the table. At the same time, this wasn’t a particularly difficult game to open the season with, so the selection committee would likely take away some credit for that. At the same time, 76-0 is hard to ignore.

9. Alabama Crimson Tide (1-0)

The Kalen DeBoer era is underway in Tuscaloosa and it got underway with a big 63-0 win over Western Kentucky. That’s another FBS school and one that should be competitive in its conference. Meanwhile, quarterback Jalen Milroe had a massive day even while coming out of the game early, which has to be exciting for Alabama fans.

For now, the win isn’t going to move the needle all that far for the College Football Playoff Selection Committee. However, it could hypothetically be perceived as a better win than some of the others that teams earned during Week 1, especially given how dominant a win it was. At the same time, Alabama will have plenty of opportunities to earn more impressive wins.

10. Oregon Ducks (1-0)

Coming into the season, the Oregon Ducks had massive expectations as it relates to the College Football Playoff. The Ducks still have those expectations. However, after struggling in Week 1 with FCS Idaho, Oregon’s perception nationally took a bit of a hit. That contributes to where Dinich is predicting Oregon will be ranked.

Heather Dinich added some context as to why the game against Idaho was frustrating, writing, “Oregon entered the game beating FCS opponents by an average of 43.6 points. This was Oregon’s closest margin of victory against an FCS opponent in the past 20 seasons.” Next week, Oregon plays Boise State, one of the top Group of Five teams. The Ducks will need to figure things out quickly or they could be in trouble.

11. Missouri Tigers (1-0)

After a strong 2023 season that caught plenty of people by surprise, the Missouri Tigers won’t catch anyone by surprise in 2024. At the same time, with the offensive talent that the Tigers have, like Luther Burden, they may not need to catch anyone off-guard. That started this season with a 51-0 win over Murray State.

Placing Missouri in the CFP rankings is a little challenging right now. This is clearly a talented team that is capable of making noise. However, in terms of games played already, an FCS opponent isn’t particularly impressive and others won those easier games by a wider margin. For now, that leaves the Tigers at 11th.

12. Utah Utes (1-0)

Dinich rounded out her predictions for the top 12 in the College Football Playoff Selection Committee rankings with a Big 12 school in Utah. That would make the Utes the four-seed in this scenario. At the same time, there’s a world where this Utah team with all of its talent and the preseason expectations set on them could end up higher than this.

Utah opened the season with a massive 49-0 win over Southern Utah. That may not be the most impressive opponent but a bigger deal was finding out how healthy quarterback Cam Rising is this season. He looked great, throwing for 254 yards and five touchdowns while rushing for 25 yards. That’s excellent news for the Utes.

If these were the final College Football Playoff rankings, and assuming that every team ranked the highest here wins their conference, it would mean Georgia would be the first seed, Ohio State would be the second seed, Miami would have the third seed, and Utah would have the fourth seed. After that, Texas, Notre Dame, USC, and Penn State would be hosting the first round. Missouri would also be getting left out of the CFP for a Group of Five conference champion.