ESPN predicts College Football Playoff Top 12 rankings after Week 10

The first College Football Playoff rankings are set to be unveiled on Tuesday, which means the race to make the postseason is nearing its finish line.

Following another exciting week in college football, ESPN’s Heather Dinich predicted how the selection committee will rank the top 12 contenders after an interesting Week 10 slate.

Notably, Dinich’s rankings are a prediction of how she believes the selection committee will rank these teams, and does not consider the AP Poll. When the final seedings are released, they will be determined by seeing the top four conference champions getting a first round bye. The fifth highest-ranked conference champion will get an auto-bid but no first-round bye. The seven at-large bids will then be determined by the rankings.

This is how she believes the committee’s rankings will look after Week 10.

1. Oregon Ducks (9-0)

Oregon‘s 32-31 win over Ohio State looks even better after the Buckeyes downed Penn State in Week 10. Meanwhile, the Ducks took care of business on the road against Michigan. Factor in the victory against Boise State earlier in the season, the Ducks pass the eye test and have the resume to match.

As long as Oregon remains undefeated, Dinich doesn’t see the committee letting any one-loss team surpass the Ducks no matter how impressive the victory. The toughest test left on their schedule comes on Nov. 16 on the road at Wisconsin.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1)

Ohio State secured the best win of Week 10, and its season by upsetting a previosuly undefeated Penn State 20-13 right before the inital College Football Playoff rankings. The impressive victory should be fresh on the committee’s minds when making their selections.

The question Dinich posed is whether or not Georgia’s body of work is more impressive than Ohio State’s for the first rankings. For a while, Georgia’s win over Texas and Clemson gave the Bulldogs the nod over the Buckeyes, but the victory over Penn State may be the X-factor in slotting Ohio State higher than Georgia on Tuesday.

3. Georgia Bulldogs (7-1)

Florida gave Georgia its best shot given the circumstances in Week 10, but the Bulldogs ultimately avoided the scare and kept its bid for an SEC Championship, and in turn, first-round bye alive heading into the final stretch of regular season play.

Still, Georgia’s turnover issues will need to be addressed moving forward. Carson Beck threw three interceptions during the contest, but that doesnt take away the victory or its two wins against top 25 opponents in Clemson and Texas. Despite Clemson’s loss to Louisville on Saturday, they also have the win at Texas to cushion their argument and can help their case against No. 16 Ole Miss on Saturday.

4. Miami Hurricanes (9-0)

Miami scored 50 or more points for the fifth time this season, defeating Duke after trailing by double digits to win 53-31. While questions continue to surround the stretch of the ‘Canes defensive unit, there’s no debate how explosive Cam Ward and the Miami offense has become this season.

The Hurricanes won’t have a win over a ranked team heading into the postseason even if they do win out. Still, that won’t stop them from earning a first-round bye into the College Football Playoff if they win the ACC title game.

5. Texas Longhorns (7-1)

Texas enjoyed its bye week in Week 10, but hasn’t done much to move up the rankings (or down) since losing to Georgia at home several weeks ago. The Longhorns’ best wins are against Michigan, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, and there’s a possibility that none of those teams are put in the initial College Football Playoff Top 25.

They won’t have another opportunity to impress to committee until the regular season finale on the road at Texas A&M. To Dinich, a loss against the Aggies could put Texas on the outside looking in if there are other two-loss teams with better wins on their resume. If they were the SEC runner-ups, they may be in good shape considering they’d have beaten Texas A&M in that scenario.

6. BYU Cougars (8-0)

Like the Longhorns, BYU was idle in Week 10 and enters November as the team to beat in the Big 12. After Iowa State lost to Texas Tech on Saturday, the Cougars have seperated themselves even further. With Arizona State being the toughest test left on their schedule, an undefeated BYU team is expected to cruise into the conference championship game.

On the other hand, BYU may need to win out completely if they want to make the College Football Playoff. The committee will compare the Cougars to every other one-loss team in the CFP race, and stregth of schedule may be an issue for BYU in that regard as they won’t play a ranked team during the regular season.

7. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1)

Penn State’s loss to Ohio State has separated the Buckeyes from the Nittany Lions, but it hasn’t ended their hopes of an at-large bid into the College Football Playoff. However, it doesn’t help their status that Penn State never had a chance to play Oregon or Indiana during the regular season.

Without much left on the PSU schedule to boost their status ahead of the postseason, they need to have convincing wins over whats left of their regular season competition to ensure a home playoff game in the first round.

8. Tennessee Volunteers (7-1)

Tennessee avoided a scare against its border rival on Saturday after Kentucky cut the Vols lead to three in the third quarter. Ultimately pulling out the 28-18 victory, Tennessee remains in the College Football Playoff race as a one-loss team.

Unlike many teams on this list, Tennessee still has an opportunity to impress the committee before the end of the regular season. They play Georgia on the road on Nov. 16, and the outcome of that game may decide whether the Vols host a home playoff game this season or not. Depending on the other two-loss teams around them, Dinich believes having two losses may cause Tennessee some trouble in the committee meeting room.

9. Boise State Broncos (7-1)

Dinich is a firm believer that losses are just as important as wins to the College Football Playoff selection committee. Boise State‘s three-point loss on the road to No. 1 Oregon is one of the best losses in the country this season.

Add in the fact that they pass the eye test thanks to Heisman Trophy contender Ashton Jeanty, so it’s no surprise that every other Group of Five team falls in line behind the Broncos at this point in the season.

10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1)

Notre Dame enjoyed its bye week during Week 10 a bit more than some other teams in the CFP race. Aided by losses from Iowa State (previously undefeated), Kansas State, Clemson and Texas A&M — the Fighting Irish are right back in the mix for an at-large bid late in the season.

However, Dinich would not be surprised if a one-loss Notre Dame team is left out of the playoff entirely. The Irish are not tied to a conference so they cannot earn a first-round bye, which means the best case for Notre Dame is to host a playoff game as a team seeded 5-8.

11. Indiana Hoosiers (9-0)

Indiana‘s offense ranks second in the country with 46.6 points scored per game and ranked seventh in the country in points allowed with 13.7. However, the Hoosiers’ strength of schedule is holding them back from competing with the other undefeated teams on this list.

The committee factors in stregnth of schedule, and Indiana’s opposition shares a combined .484 winning percentage — good for 104th in the country. The Hoosiers may have to win the Big Ten Championship to find themselves in the field of 12 even with one loss.

12. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2)

Alabama‘s win over Georgia is keeping the Crimson Tide’s College Football Playoff hopes alive heading into Week 11. The loss to Vanderbilt continues to look better by the week as the Commodores just reached bowl eligibility, and Alabama has a shot this weekend on the road to impress the committee against LSU.

The meeting between the Tide and Tigers is considered to be a playoff eliminator for the loser, as both teams already have two losses this season. For the winner, their playoff hopes remain alive for at least another week.