ESPN predicts College Football Playoff Top 12 rankings after Week 5

It’s been a thrilling season of college football to this point and Week 5 was no different, with conference play in full swing, upsets, and plenty of action that had a major impact on the College Football Playoff race. So, with that, ESPN predicted how the CFP selection committee would rank the top 12 teams in the country.

Importantly, these are not a projected seeding for the College Football Playoff. This is a prediction of how the selection committee is going to rank teams. The actual seeding will be determined by the top four conference champions getting a first round bye. The fifth-ranked conference champions will also get an auto-bid but no bye. Then, the rankings will go to determine seven at-large bids.

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With all that taken into consideration, here’s a look at how ESPN predicted the College Football Playoff Selection Committee would rank the top 12 through Week 5 of the season:

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0)

The Alabama Crimson Tide have jumped to the top of the College Football Playoff ranking predictions after their win over the Georgia Bulldogs. Obviously, at this point in the season, nobody has a better individual win than Alabama. Almost more importantly, they did so with a dominant effort in the first half, making it easy to have confidence in where the Crimson Tide currently stand.

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Beyond the Georgia game, Alabama has done plenty to earn this top spot. That includes a dominant win over the Wisconsin Badgers out of the Big Ten. So, it would appear that Alabama now controls its future in both the SEC Championship race and the Playoff race.

2. Texas Longhorns (5-0)

The Texas Longhorns, like Alabama, have one of the best wins all season. Theirs came on the road against the defending national champions when Texas had a dominant win over Michigan. Since then, the Longhorns have kept on winning, including their first SEC game ever against Mississippi State.

If there has been a major concern, it’s been the health of starting quarterback Quinn Ewers. He’s missed the last two games with an injury and in his place Arch Manning has gotten a pair of starts. In those two games, Manning has thrown for 582 yards and four touchdowns with two interceptions. Those are solid numbers for a young quarterback but the Longhorns are going to be happy once they have Ewers back.

3. Tennessee Volunteers (4-0)

The Tennessee Volunteers are coming off a bye week. So, they weren’t able to do anything to help or hurt their case for the College Football Playoff in Week 5. At the same time, the Volunteers have already done plenty to prove they’re a major threat this season for both the SEC and the Playoff.

ESPN emphasized how strong Tennessee is in terms of strength of record this season, currently second in the country. On top of that, they’re a very efficient team, which should also help them in the eyes of the selection committee. If there’s a knock on Tennessee, it’s simply that other teams also have excellent resumes.

4. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0)

The Ohio State Buckeyes are the top team ESPN is predicting the College Football Playoff selection committee will rank that isn’t in the SEC. Instead, they’re one of several Big Ten teams that are going to be competing for a spot in the Playoff. After winning a road win in conference play over the weekend, the Buckeyes have only strengthened their overall resume.

The knock on Ohio State has simply been that the non-conference was a very easy schedule. So, it was hard to tell just how good Ohio State is this season. Now, after beating Michigan State, there’s a better data point to use. Moving forward, the schedule will also get much more challenging. So, there is room to grow for Ohio State.

5. Georgia Bulldogs (3-1)

The Georgia Bulldogs are the first team with a loss that ESPN is predicting will be ranked by the College Football Playoff selection committee. Of course, for the Bulldogs, that loss came against the Alabama Crimson Tide, who ESPN currently has first. So, it’s hard not to appreciate that Georgia’s loss won’t hurt them too much at the end of the season, especially if they avoid having more as the season goes on.

The concern for Georgia was the slow start against Alabama. After all, it wasn’t their first slow start of the season and the schedule is difficult moving forward. So, if the Bulldogs continue to start slow, the losses could pile up more than expected. At the same time, there’s room to still build a very impressive resume.

6. Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0)

Penn State had its first ranked opponent and its first Big Ten opponent on Saturday when the Nittany Lions welcomed Illinois to Happy Valley. It was a dominant defensive effort by Penn State, backed by a solid running game, which led to a 21-7 win.

With that, Penn State looks to be right in the middle of the College Football Playoff hunt. They play in a talented conference and will have their shot against opponents like Ohio State and USC later this season. Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions’ defense is one of the best in the country. At the same time, playing ugly games in the non-conference could hurt Penn State in the rankings.

7. Oregon Ducks (4-0)

The Oregon Ducks came into the season with massive expectations on their shoulders and they came out to an unsteady start, playing in a couple of close games. However, the Ducks never dropped one of those close games and have since seemed to steady the ship with a pair of big wins, the most recent of which was over UCLA.

In this part of ESPN’s College Football Playoff ranking predictions, it’s a little difficult to decide what order teams should be in. After all, a lot of resumes are very similar at this point in the season and the human element is involved in these decisions. Still, given the talent and overall resume, Oregon fits in here.

8. Miami Hurricanes (4-0)

The Virginia Tech Hokies gave the Miami Hurricanes all they could handle and more on Friday night. That game ended in controversy, with replay overturning what was ruled a last second touchdown by Virginia Tech on the field, helping preserve Miami’s unbeaten record this season. That also helped preserve Miami’s place in the College Football Playoff ranking predictions.

Miami gets credit for being dominant and convincing in its non-conference slate. At the same time, the knock is that the Florida win doesn’t look as good as it used to and the Hurricanes have neither left the state of Florida nor played a ranked opponent. So, it’s easy to see why they’ll struggle to climb higher in the rankings.

9. Clemson Tigers (3-1)

After losing to Georgia to open the season, Clemson was almost written off. Since then, however, the Tigers have been much improved and have dominated their schedule since that point. With that, they’re ready to climb back into College Football Playoff contention.

ESPN explained that it’s the offense, scoring at least 40 points in three straight games, that landed them here in the predictions. They could even be ranked higher, given that the one loss is understandable to Georgia and the style points have been impressive. On the other hand, the knock has been the level of competition in the wins. So, it’s going to be good to see the Tigers against more top-ranked competition.

10. Michigan Wolverines (4-1)

The defending national champions have issues. Throwing the ball, in particular, has been a struggle for Michigan as the Wolverines have started multiple quarterbacks. Still, it’s hard to ignore how talented the defense and running game still are in Ann Arbor. So, as long as Michigan is winning, they have a shot at the College Football Playoff.

The passing struggles are a concern in games where Michigan may need to come from behind to win, as is the fourth quarterback that Michigan allowed to Minnesota. So, there is still plenty to prove to the selection committee. Luckily, the Wolverines will have the opportunity to do so.

11. Kansas State Wildcats (4-1)

After a really frustrating loss on the road to BYU, Kansas State found itself in a difficult situation. The Wildcats were getting set to play Oklahoma State, another ranked team at the time, with a loss being their second conference loss in a parity-driven Big 12. So, finding a way to win was going to be paramount to keeping up in the conference and the College Football Playoff race. They did just that and here they currently stand.

That loss to BYU is going to stick with Kansas State, though as the Cougars keep winning, it looks like a better and better loss. That’s helped keep their resume ahead of similar teams for ESPN. At the same time, it’s a subjective decision at this point.

12. Ole Miss Rebels (4-1)

Ole Miss had played an admittedly weak non-conference schedule going 4-0 and dominating that competition. That made the loss to Kentucky stand out even more and raise even more concerns about how ready Ole Miss is to play the step up in competition that comes with conference play. That’s a big part of why the Rebels slid to 12th in the ESPN College Football Playoff predictions.

One thing that Ole Miss does have this season is style points. The offense has proven it’s explosive and there’s been plenty to be impressed with this season. With a talented quarterback in Jaxson Dart, it’s easy to see Ole Miss quickly rising in these standings again.