ESPN predicts College Football Playoff Top 12 rankings after Week 7

Week 7 has come and gone, bringing with it overtime thrillers, upset victories, and massive changes to the College Football Playoff race.

Following the weekend slate, ESPN’s Heather Dinich predicted how the CFP selection committee would rank the top 12 teams in the country. Notably, these rankings are not a projected seeding for the College Football Playoff.

Instead, it is a prediction of how the selection committee will rank these teams. When the final seedings are released, they will be determined by seeing the top four conference champions getting a first round bye. The fifth-ranked conference champions will get an auto-bid but no first-round bye. The seven at-large bids will then be determined by the rankings.

1. Texas Longhorns (6-0)

Texas defeated a ranked Oklahoma squad 34-3 in the 2024 edition of the Red River Rivalry on Saturday. This continues a trend of the Longhorns dominating their opposition this season, as their tightest game was a 31-12 win over Michigan in Week 2.

Despite quarterback Quinn Ewers missing some time with injury, there was no slowing the Longhorns down under backup Arch Manning‘s signal calling. They’ll look to continue their strong start to the season against their toughest test to date — a Week 8 blockbuster matchup against the Georgia Bulldogs at home.

2. Oregon Ducks (6-0)

Oregon welcomed Ohio State to Autzen Stadium on Saturday, defeating the Buckeyes 32-31 as time ran out on the Buckeyes during their final drive. The Ducks remain unbeaten after the battle of Big Ten contenders.

With arguably the hardest game on their schedulebehind them, the Ducks have ranked matchups against Illinois and Michigan left on the docket before the postseason. This puts Oregon in prime position to find their way into the College Football Playoffs this season, even if they were to be upset down the stretch during the regular season or lose in a potential Big Ten title game.

3. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0)

Penn State held strong on the road against USC on Saturday, defeating the Trojans in overtime. Along with their wins against West Virginia, and Illinois, the Week 7 cross-country road win gives the Nittany Lions three quality victories in the eyes of the committee.

While the Nittany Lions trailed USC 20-6 at halftime, proving they can mount a comeback in a hostile environment — against a team that would have been on this list three weeks ago — is a strong sign that Penn State can hang with the best of them in the country. They’ll get to prove that when they host Ohio State on Nov. 2.

4. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1)

Ohio State remains close to the top of Dinich’s College Football Playoff predictions because of one reason — the committee cares how you win, and more importantly how you lose. The clock was Ohio State’s enemy on their final drive. Throw 10 extra seconds on the clock, there’s no telling how the game would have ended.

However, the Buckeyes did lose after traveling 2,000 miles to Eugene in the first-time-ever Big Ten matchup. With their best win being against a 4-2 Iowa team, the Nov. 2 matchup at Penn State has now become must-win for Ohio State.

5. Georgia Bulldogs (5-1)

Georgia’s road trip to Texas will be Week 8’s banner matchup, and has become the ultimate opportunity for the Bulldogs to prove they belong back in the conversation for a top four seed in the College Football Playoffs.

Upsets have been plentiful in the SEC this season, and Georgia is one of six teams who have one loss in conference play through six games. The Longhorns, along with Texas A&M and LSU, are undefeated in SEC action. This matchup begins a tough back stretch of the season for UGA, but a win against Texas on the road will prove they belong in the national title picture with a first-round bye to boot.

6. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1)

Alabama sits one spot behind the Bulldogs despite their head-to-head victory over them earlier this season. This can be attributed to the fact that, the Crimson Tide lost to Vanderbilt on the road and was taken to the limit against South Carolina in consecutive weeks following the win. Meanwhile, Georgia has remainded steady.

Against the Gamecocks, the Crimson Tide gave up four sacks on quarterback Jalen Milroe — the most of any game this season — and gave up two turnovers and seven penalties to South Carolina in the eventual two-point victory. Alabama travels to Tennessee for a top 10 showdown on Saturday, and would jump back in front of Georgia with a win and a Bulldogs loss.

7. Miami Hurricanes (6-0)

Miami looks to remain undefeated as the Hurricanes travel to Louisville fresh off its bye week to take on the Cardinals in an ACC matchup. Midway through the season, no team has proven that they can slow down Cam Ward and this high-powered ‘Canes offense.

The question remains — why is undefeated Miami behind one-loss teams like Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State? Simply, Miami doesn’t have a win over a ranked team yet. They play Louisville this week, but the Cardinals fell out of the top 25 after losing to SMU in Week 6. Without ACC teams like Pitt or Clemson on their schedule, Miami could enter the postseason without a single win over a ranked opponent.

8. Clemson Tigers (5-1)

Clemson has looked like a completely new team since its 34-3 loss against Georgia in the season opener. Scoring 40 points in four of their five wins since, the Tigers have been rolling behind junior quarterback Cade Klubnik.

A plus for the Tigers is that they’ve easily dispatched all of their unranked opponents this season, unlike teams such as Alabama, Georgia and Miami. With Novemeber matchups against both Pitt and South Carolina, a one-loss Clemson team could find themselves much higher in the final CFP rankings if they were to beat an undefeated Miami squad in the conference championship game.

9. BYU Cougars (6-0)

The first Big 12 team to make this week’s list, BYU is 3-0 on the road and off to their best start to a season since 2020. If they continue their winning ways and win the conference championship game, a first-round bye could be in their future.

Road trips to UCF and Utah on top of a matchup against Arizona State stand in their way before that, but for now the Cougars look to be the team to beat in the Big 12 Conference through six games.

10. Boise State Broncos (5-1)

Ashton Jeanty has taken the nation by storm as he continues his push for the 2024 Heisman Trophy. Meanwhile, his Boise State Broncos are dominating the Mountain West Conference and with a close loss on the road at Oregon being the team’s only blemish, the Broncos seem to be many analyst’s pick to make the College Football Playoffs as the highest-ranked non-power conference team.

Still, Boise State doesn’t have another opportunity to earn a statement victory this season. Their toughest game left is Oct. 25 against UNLV, so they will likely have to win out to ensure their spot in the intitial field of 12.

11. LSU Tigers (5-1)

It took LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier two plays to turn one of his worst performances of the season into an instant classic on Saturday. The first was a touchdown pass to tie the game in the final 30 seconds of regulation. The second came on the next play he was on the field — a walk-off touchdown pass as the crowd stormed the field.

Claiming victory against a top-10 Ole Miss team in overtime not only gives the Tigers an impressive win in the committee’s eyes, but it keeps them undefeated (2-0) in SEC play, something only two other teams can claim after Week 7.

12. Iowa State Cyclones (6-0)

Iowa State continues to win and move up in the top 25 as other teams fall around them. Just like Ohio State, their best win is against Iowa. Unlike the Buckeyes, however, their win was on the road and the Cyclones are still undefeated through six games.

There’s a lot of football to be played before the Cyclones can stake their claim for a CFP bid. Iowa State won’t play another ranked team until they travel to Utah and play Kansas State in consecutive games to end the season, and will have to host Texas Tech (5-1, 3-0 Big 12) before they get there.