ESPN predicts College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings after Week 11

The College Football Playoff race was turned on its head after an exciting, upset-fueled Week 11 slate. With two teams in the top four of the initial CFP Top 25 losing, the race to make the field of 12 is even deeper now.

Heading into Week 12, ESPN’s Heather Dinich predicted how the College Football Playoff selection committee will choose to handle the Georgia and Miami upsets, as well as the fallout from Alabama–LSU, and more from around the country.

1. Oregon Ducks (10-0)

Oregon is 5-0 against teams with winning records this season and has arguably the best win in the country this season against Ohio State. In the four games since downing the Buckeyes in Eugene, they’ve outscored their opposition 150-44 and have looked every bit of their No. 1 ranking.

Per ESPN’s strength of record metric, the Ducks have the best resume of all undefeated teams and after besting Maryland 39-18 in Week 11, it’s unlikely the committee would move anyone ahead of the Ducks. That is especially considering who is ranked No. 2 on this list.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1)

Ohio State did what was expected of them in Week 11, dispatching Purdue 45-0 as the Nov. 23 showdown against Indiana draws closer. The initial rankings showed the committee valued the Buckeyes’ one-point loss to No. 1 Oregon over the undefeated status of the Hoosiers.

The outcome of that matchup could reshape the CFP race entirely. However, ESPN gives Ohio State a near 70% chance to defeat the Hoosiers at home. Before the Buckeyes get there, they will need to handle business against Northwestern in Week 12.

3. Texas Longhorns (8-1) +2

Oddly, Texas could benefit from Georgia’s loss despite having fallen to the Bulldogs earlier this season. Dinich pointed out that the committee considers common opponents, and Georgia struggled to beat Florida one week before Texas‘ 49-17 win over the Gators. While the head-to-head favors the Bulldogs, the Longhorns should be the SEC’s top-ranked team when the rankings are released.

Quinn Ewers threw for five touchdowns and 333 yards during the dominant performance, further strengthening Texas’ status as one of the top teams in the College Football Playoff race.

4. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1) +2

CFP committee chair Warde Manuel said that Penn State’s loss against Ohio State “could have gone the other way,” and was firm in his belief that the one-score loss to the No. 2 Buckeyes was better than Tennessee‘s road loss to unranked Arkansas.

Still, Penn State suffers from not having a win over any team that appeared in the initial CFP Top 25 rankings. With a Big Ten Championship berth looking more unlikely as the regular season winds down, there’s a chance the Nittany Lions host a home playoff game without a statement win.

5. Tennessee Volunteers (8-1) +2

There’s a chance that Tennessee will have wins over Georgia and Alabama this time next week — which would likely catapult the Vols up the College Football Playoff rankings. The Crimson Tide was able to defeat Georgia earlier in the season, so even if the Bulldogs pull off what will now be looked at as an upset — each of the three teams will have beaten each other.

The Vols haven’t done anything to hurt their case since defeating Alabama. They’ve taken care of business against Kentucky and Mississippi State, but Dinich acknowledged the committee could reward Indiana over the Vols this week after their win against Michigan.

6. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0)+2

The committee won’t know exactly what to make of Indiana until its blockbuster matchup against Ohio State on Nov. 23. Indiana suffers from the lack of strength in their schedule (103 overall) — but Dinich reiterated that the CFP selectors value undefeated teams.

Taking into account Indiana’s most recent win against Michigan, they are expected to move up as those around them (Georgia and Miami) fall. Indiana is on a bye week during Week 12, so they have an extra week to prepare for the Buckeyes. They could be ranked even higher by the time they meet Ohio State in Columbus.

7. BYU Cougars (9-0) +2

BYU defeated Utah 22-21 thanks to a last-second field goal, but it wasn’t without controversy. Regardless, the Cougars survived the late-night upset scare and they kept their undefeated season alive.

Even with wins over ranked teams like SMU and Kansas State this season, Dinich doesn’t expect much movement for the Cougars this week but presented an interesting situation. If BYU were to slip up before the end of the regular season, or in the Big 12 Championship game, the conference may lose its first-round bye as Boise State could potentially finish as the fourth-highest ranked conference champion.

8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1) +2

Notre Dame has wins over two teams that appeared in the first batch of College Football Playoff rankings — No. 14 Texas A&M and No. 22 Louisville. Their win against Navy also impressed the committee, Manuel said.

They have another opportunity at another potential ranked win against Army on Nov. 23, further strengthening the Fighting Irish’s argument for an at-large bid. The early season loss against Northern Illinois is holding the Irish back from moving any higher despite its 52-3 win over Florida State in Week 11.

9. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2) +2

Alabama cushioned its status as a College Football Playoff contender in Week 11 after defeating LSU 42-13 on the road. Now that Georgia is a fellow two-loss team, the Crimson Tide’s win over the Bulldogs earlier in the season should have them slotted ahead of the Bulldogs, according to Dinich.

ESPN gives the Crimson Tide a 78% chance or greater to win its remaining regular season games, but Dinich questions whether the committee will rank Miami below two-loss Alabama and Georgia teams.

10. Georgia Bulldogs (7-2) -7

Georgia’s 28-10 loss to Ole Miss on Saturday was arguably the biggest shake-up of the Week 11 slate. After defeating then-No. 1 Texas, they were tested against Florida before pulling away late. However, they were never able to regain the lead after scoring the first touchdown against Ole Miss.

However, the Bulldogs can change their perception in the eyes of the College Football Playoff committee if they were to defeat Texas in Week 12. It also helps that they still have in-state rival Georgia Tech in the regular season finale, as they bested Miami in Week 11.

The rest of the predicted rankings are predicted as follows:

11. Miami Hurricanes (9-1) -7
12. Boise State Broncos (8-1)
13. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2) +3
14. SMU Mustangs (8-1) -1
15. Texas A&M Aggies (7-2) -1
16. Kansas State Wildcats (7-2) +3
17. Colorado Buffaloes (7-2) +3
18. Washington State (8-1) +3
19. LSU Tigers (6-3) -4
20. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-3) (Previously unranked)
21. Louisville Cardinals (6-3) +1
22. Clemson Tigers (7-2) +1
23. Missouri Tigers (7-2) +1
24. Pitt Panthers (7-2) -6
25 Army Black Knights (9-0)