ESPN predicts College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings after Week 12

With just two weeks remaining in the regular season, the College Football Playoff rankings are rounding into form following a prove-it Week 12 that set the stage for a brand-new rankings reveal Tuesday evening on ESPN.

Before that, though, ESPN insider Heather Dinich released her projections for how the CFP committee could rank its newest Top 25 after two Top 7 losses from BYU and Tennessee in Week 12. The main benefactors of those setbacks were a trio of two-loss SEC teams in Alabama, Ole Miss and Georgia, the latter of which sent the Vols home with a convincing 31-17 loss in Athens.

Of course, the ultimate decision will come down to the 13-member committee, which will meet in Grapevine, Texas ahead of Tuesday night’s big reveal.

1. Oregon Ducks (11-0)

There’s no change at the top as the Big Ten-leading Ducks survived a scare from Wisconsin and rallied in the fourth quarter for a 16-13 road win Saturday. Heisman Trophy-contending quarterback Dillon Gabriel had an inconsistent game passing for just 218 yards, 92 of which went to star receiver Evan Stewart, but Oregon running back Jordan James held it down with 121 rushing yards and a game-tying fourth quarter touchdown run to power a 10-0 showing in the final frame.

Dinich noted that while the overall result “wasn’t pretty,” a hard-fought road win in the Big Ten will be enough to keep the Ducks No. 1 in the committee’s eyes, especially given its head-to-head win over Ohio State, which remains at No. 2 in its rankings once again.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1)

The Buckeyes don’t move anywhere after a convincing road win of its own, a 31-7 victory over Northwestern inside Wrigley Field. The Ohio State offense once again showed itself to be among the best all-around units in college football as quarterback Will Howard and running back Quinshon Judkins each contributed two touchdowns apiece in the rout.

Dinich cited Ohio State’s one-point loss to No. 1 ranked Oregon as “the best loss in the country” and why it’ll remain ahead of No. 3 Texas, which eked out a road win of its own at renewed rival Arkansas. Dinich also believes the Buckeyes road win at Penn State as another feather in their cap in the committee’s eyes.

3. Texas Longhorns (9-1)

The Longhorns remain atop the SEC standings with a hard-fought 20-10 road win in Fayetteville, renewing a former Southwestern Conference rivalry with plenty of history. Despite a less-than-convincing effort from its offense, Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers still produced a pair of touchdown passes to Matthew Golden to stay in the driver’s seat for an SEC Championship Game bid ahead of games against Kentucky and bitter rival Texas A&M in two weeks.

Dinich pointed to the Longhorns’ “decisive win against Florida” as well as a strong road showing at Arkansas as more reasons the CFP committee is likely to still view Texas among the Top 3 nationally. Dinich also cited the committee’s respect for Texas’ one loss to a re-emerging Georgia, which should move back into the 12-team field this week after a convincing home win over previously No. 7 Tennessee on Saturday night. 

4. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-1)

James Franklin and Penn State reasserted itself as a Big Ten contender with its second convincing conference victory by dominating host Purdue 49-10 on Saturday. The Nittany Lions remain on the outside looking in for a shot at the Big Ten Championship game, but should still remain ahead of undefeated Indiana in the CFP committee’s eyes ahead of the Hoosiers’ Week 13 showdown vs. Ohio State.

Dinich cites Penn State’s strength of schedule (No. 56) as its placement over undefeated Indiana (No. 100), and made it clear the Nittany Lions should be guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field as long as it continues to win out over the final two weeks.

5. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0)

Indiana was idle in Week 12 and should remain at No. 5 in the latest CFP rankings having done nothing to warrant movement. That said, all eyes will be on the Hoosiers’ Top 5 showdown vs. No. 2 Ohio State — with ESPN’s College GameDay to be onsite — as the game of the week in Week 13. It’s a make-or-break game for Indiana, which has received plenty of outside criticism for its less-than-impressive strength of schedule and lack of Top 25 wins on the season.

That narrative would go out the window with a win over the host Buckeyes, but there aren’t many predictors that will be picking that particular upset this week. Still, CFP committee chair Warde Manuel — the Michigan athletic director — has cited Indiana’s convincing wins on the field as a reason for their respect. But if the Hoosiers are going to remain in the CFP field, it’s going to require a strong showing against its first real test of the season Saturday in Columbus.

6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1) +2

The Fighting Irish get a boost from the BYU loss, and remains in perfect position to secure a spot in the CFP 12-team field should it continue to win out. That’s easier said than done, of course, with a date with an undefeated Army awaiting Notre Dame inside Yankee Stadium on Saturday as part of the Shamrock Series. The Irish are heavily favored with an 87.6% advantage according to ESPN’s matchup predictor.

Notre Dame has won eight straight since a headscratching home loss to Northern Illinois, which remains a black eye on the Irish’s Playoff resume. That said, Dinich cited a potential win over Army (which remains atop the AAC standings) as a nice feather in their CFP cap should Notre Dame pull off the victory in NYC. Of course, a loss to Army could doom the Irish’s Playoff chances all together and move the Black Knights into contention for a seat in the 12-team playoff should it secure one of the five conference champion spots.

7. Miami Hurricanes (9-1) +2

Mario Cristobal and Miami were idle in Week 12, still nursing its wounds from the prior week’s upset loss at Georgia Tech. Still, with matchups ahead against Wake Forest and Syracuse, the Hurricanes should maintain its place as the ACC’s top team in the CFP committee’s eyes, and thus secure a first-round bye as the likely ACC champion. Led by Heisman Trophy-contender Cam Ward, the Canes are certainly a team to look out for when the Playoffs begin.

Dinich pointed to the committee’s appreciation for Miami’s “dominant” offense through the first nine weeks of the season, but its lack of any quality Top 25 wins remains a black mark on the Canes’ Playoff resume. If Miami were to stumble in the final two weeks, that resume could be enough to drop Cristobal and company out of the field completely and move multiple two-loss SEC teams into the mix for a first-round home game.

8. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2) +2

The Crimson Tide dominated FCS foe Mercer at home, 52-7, and remains in the running to potentially lock up a spot in the SEC Championship game if it can close out the regular season with wins over Oklahoma and in-state rival Auburn. Since a 24-17 road upset loss to Tennessee, Alabama has outscored its opponents 128-20, including blowout wins over then-ranked Missouri and LSU.

The Tide should remain the nation’s top two-loss team in the CFP committee’s eyes given its head-to-head victories over Ole Miss and Georgia, both of which look better and better with each victory those two continue to pile up down the stretch. That said, Dinich cited that previous loss to Tennessee as something the committee will take into consideration while making out this week’s rankings.

9. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2) +2

Lane Kiffin and the Rebels were idle in Week 12, still reveling in their home win over Georgia the Saturday before, and remain in the CFP mix entering the final two weeks of the regular season. Next up is a date with Florida in The Swamp, never an easy place to play as LSU learned this weekend. Ole Miss has won three straight and could close out the regular season on a five-game win streak and set itself up for a first-round home game in the Playoffs if all holds as is.

Dinich cited the committee’s positive impression of the Rebels’ head-to-head upset over Georgia as a stronger indicator of their Playoff potential over difficult-to-swallow losses to Kentucky and LSU, both of whom have seen their seasons go off the rails. Still, as long as Ole Miss continues to win its final two games against Florida and rival Mississippi State, it shouldn’t have a problem locking up a Playoff spot.

10. Georgia Bulldogs (8-2) +2

The Bulldogs are back in the College Football Playoff field with its convincing 31-17 home win over previous No. 7 Tennessee. That should do more than enough for the CFP committee to slide Georgia back into the 12-team field after it was bumped following an ugly 28-10 road loss at Ole Miss two weeks ago. Carson Beck showed why many considered him a potential No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick entering the season with a pair of passing touchdowns to tight end Oscar Delp as well as a rushing score of his own.

Dinich cited the committee’s appreciation for Georgia’s 30-15 road win at Texas, currently the No. 3 team in the CFP rankings, as “one of the best wins of the year” according to Manuel. The Bulldogs’ impressive win Saturday, along with a strong offensive performance that many fans have been waiting to see all season, keeps Georgia in the mix for a potential rematch with the Longhorns in the SEC Championship game, and a chance to secure a first-round playoff bye should history repeat itself.

The rest of the predicted rankings are predicted as follows:

11. Tennessee Volunteers (8-2) -4
12. Boise State Broncos (9-1) +1
13. BYU Cougars (9-1) -7
14. SMU Mustangs (9-1)
15. Texas A&M Aggies (8-2)
16. Colorado Buffaloes (8-2) +1
17. Clemson Tigers (8-2) +3
18. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-3) +3
19. Missouri Tigers (7-3) +4
20. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-2) NR
21. Army Black Knights (9-0) +3
22. Tulane Green Wave (9-2) +3
23. UNLV Rebels (8-2) NR
24. Iowa State Cyclones (8-2) NR
25. Washington State Cougars (8-2) -7