ESPN predicts College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings after Week 13

Week 13’s slate of games might as well be called Bloody Saturday given all the Top 25 losses that will send the 13-member College Football Playoff committee back to the drawing board.

This past weekend saw seven Top 20 teams fall, including a pair of undefeateds (Army and Indiana), as well as expected SEC contenders Alabama and Ole Miss, leading many to expect wholesale changes to the new College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings on Tuesday evening.

Now, with just one week before the pentultimate Playoff ranking release, and exactly two weeks before the final CFP rankings are unveiled following Championship Week, ESPN’s Heather Dinich gave fans a peek at how the latest College Football Playoff Top 25 could look. Check out her projections below:

1. Oregon Ducks (11-0)

And then there was one. After two more undefeated teams went down Saturday, idle Oregon became college football’s lone remaining perfect program entering the final week of the regular season — all without playing a snap. Dinich cited the Ducks’ earlier win over Ohio State as the ultimate trump card for the College Football Playoff committee, and should continue to pay dividends even if the Buckeyes get revenge should the two reunite in the Big Ten title game.

Led by Heisman-hopeful quarterback Dillon Gabriel, the Ducks have been the model of consistency this season, even if it hasn’t always been pretty. Oregon barely escaped Madison with a 16-13 win over Wisconsin in their last game two weeks ago and enters a Week 14 matchup vs. former Pac-12 foil Washington, which has won three straight in the series. While the Huskies are hardly the same team that bested the Ducks twice last season, en route to a College Football Playoff national championship game appearance, Oregon will no doubt have a chip on its shoulder while waiting to see who it plays in the Big Ten Championship Game in two weeks.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1)

And the Ducks’ Big Ten title game opponent is widely projected to be the second-ranked Buckeyes, which will be looking to avenge a 32-31 loss to to Oregon in Eugene. Ohio State is riding high after convincingly dispatching another undefeated team — Indiana — with a 38-15 victory Saturday in Columbus. Of course, the Buckeyes and Ryan Day must first exorcise their own demons when “the team from up North” Michigan comes to Columbus for latest iteration of The Game.

The Wolverines have won three straight in the heated rivarly, but the head coach that spearheaded those wins — Jim Harbaugh — is now in the NFL leading the Los Angeles Chargers, while Michigan (6-5, 4-4 B10) has limped through the first season under head coach Sherrone Moore. Suffice it to say, this is a must-win for Day and company, regardless of the stakes. And those stakes are high with the Big Ten title game looming, and the potential to secure a first-round bye in the Playoffs with a win over Oregon.

3. Texas Longhorns (10-1)

There’s no change at No. 3 either as the Longhorns continue to roll through their inaugural season in the SEC. Fresh off a 31-14 win over Kentucky, Texas must keep things going when it travels to College Station for the revival of the Lonestar State Showdown vs. hated rival Texas A&M on Saturday. This will be the first game in the series since 2011, when the Longhorns sent the then-Big 12 Aggies to a 27-25 loss in their final season before jumping to the SEC.

Given the unfriendly confines of Kyle Field, and the longstanding bitterness between the state’s flagship schools, this one will be a must-watch, especially given the elevated stakes as the winner secures the final bid in the SEC Championship game next week in Atlanta. The Aggies are reeling after Auburn handed them a 43-41 upset inside Jordan-Hare Stadium, but will no doubt be highly-motivated to take on Texas at home with far more than just bragging rights on the line. Dinich believes there’s a place in the CFP for a two-loss Longhorns squad, but moreso if that second loss comes against Georgia in the SEC title game.

4. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-1)

The Nittany Lions have hardly impressed this season, but has continued to win week-in and week-out, including hanging on for a 26-25 win at Minnesota on Saturday. Dinich pointed to Penn State’s touchdown loss to Ohio State a month ago as being better than any of its subsequent competitors for the No. 4 spot, as well as an outside chance at the Big Ten title game, for keeping the Nittany Lions in the Top 4.

That said, it’s clear Penn State remains in the driver’s seat for the top at-large College Football Playoff seed and a first-round home game, where the Nittany Lions pose a serious home threat to several of the two-loss SEC teams or Group of Five champions still vying for a shot at the 12-team field. PSU senior quarterback Drew Allar was the model of consistency against Minnesota, completing 21-of-28 passing for 244 yards and two total touchdowns last Saturday and will need to be on point this weekend against Maryland to keep the Nittany Lions in prime position.

5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-1) +1

Outside of Oregon, the Fighting Irish remain one of college football’s hottest teams as winners of nine straight since a surprising Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois at home. That loss aside, Dinich believes Notre Dame’s overwhelming 49-14 win over previously-undefeated Army in the Shamrock Series game Saturday inside Yankee Stadium will be more than enough to impress the College Football Playoff committee ahead of this weekend’s regular-season finale at rival USC.

Along with the loss to NIU, Dinich also suggested the Irish’s season-opening win over Texas A&M took a bit of a hit with the Aggies’ loss at Auburn on Saturday. Of course, that script could flip should A&M upset rival Texas and advance to the SEC Championship game in Atlanta, and would ultimately throw the entire 12-team field into a blender. But first Notre Dame must do its part by downing the Trojans at home and further cement its first-round home game in the CFP.

6. Miami Hurricanes (10-1) +1

Dinich raised the specter of the Hurricanes’ early-November loss to Georgia Tech as a ding against Miami’s eventual final Playoff seeding, especially if the Yellow Jackets get dominated by in-state rival Georgia this weekend. That result could allow the Bulldogs, which have already secured a bid in the SEC Championship game in two weeks, to leapfrog the Canes ahead of the final Playoff rankings ahead of championship week.

Of course, Miami can secure its own way into the 12-team field by beating lowly Syracuse on Saturday and then going on to win the ACC Championship outright against SMU. That said, Dinich believes a loss to the Mustangs in Charlotte could ultimately be the end of the Hurricanes’ Playoff hopes, thanks in large part to the head-scratching loss to Georgia Tech.

7. Georgia Bulldogs (9-2) +3

Dinich described the Bulldogs as “huge winners” Saturday after clinching a spot in the SEC Championship game in Atlanta thanks in large part to third losses from both Alabama and Ole Miss, the only two teams to beat Georgia this season.

The Bulldogs have one of the best resumes in the entire CFP field with three wins over current Top 25 teams (Clemson, Tennessee and Texas) and could still finish in the Playoff with a third loss in the SEC title game, especially if that loss is to the Longhorns, which would give them the claim to a win over the SEC champs.

8. Tennessee Volunteers (9-2) +3

The Vols also received a huge boost given the losses of Alabama and Ole Miss, as well as Indiana falling from the ranks of the unbeatens, moving into a prime position to secure a first-round home game in the Playoff. Of course, that would require Tennessee knocking off upstart Vanderbilt on the road, and Dinich said “that’s hardly a guarantee” given the Commodores’ string of upsets this season having already beaten Alabama in Nashville.

The in-state rivalry game will feature a compelling quarterback matchup between Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia and Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava. The Vols’ sophomore signal-caller bounced back from a disappointing performance against Georgia with a four-touchdown game against UTEP and will need more of the same against the ‘Dores to keep that train rolling into the Playoff.

9. SMU Mustangs (10-1) +5

Is the Pony Express officially back? Dinich expects the CFP committee to have a lively discussion about the Mustangs after they locked up a spot in the upcoming ACC Championship game with a convincing 33-7 road win over Virginia on Saturday. Given that advantage, and Indiana‘s lopsided loss in Columbus, Dinich projects SMU to jump the Hoosiers and Boise State into the Top 10, but that is hardly a guarantee due to the Mustangs’ early-season loss to BYU, which has dropped two straight since starting the season 9-0.

Should SMU knock off either Clemson or Miami in the ACC Championship game, it’ll lock up one of the Top 4 seeds and a first-round bye as conference champs, but only if it beats Cal on Saturday. A two-loss ACC champ might not look as appealing to the CFP committee, at least not enough to jump ahead of Boise State for the fourth and final Top 4 seed. That said, a two-loss ACC runner-up finish could potentially put SMU’s CFP hopes on life support, depending on if there’s any more chaos in front of them.

10. Boise State Broncos (10-1) +2

The final team in Dinich’s projected Top 10 would be the highest-ranked Group of Five champion Broncos, especially after Boise State clinched a bid in the Mountain West Championship game with a win over Wyoming on Saturday. Senior running back Ashton Jeanty remains the Bronco’s bellcow after a 169-yard effort to become college football’s first 2,000-yard rusher since Alabama’s Derrick Henry accomplished the feat en route to winning the 2015 Heisman Trophy.

Boise State was the biggest beneficiary of Army‘s first loss of the season, further cementing the Broncos as the favorite to lock up the Playoff’s top Group of Five championship spot. Dinich still sees a path for Boise to secure a Top 4 seed and first-round Playoff bye ahead of a two-loss Big 12 champion, but only if the Broncos win out. But a loss to Oregon State on Saturday could open the door for Tulane to step in.

ESPN’s College Football Playoff rankings 11-25

11. Indiana Hoosiers (10-1) -6
12. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-3) -4
13. Ole Miss Rebels (8-3) -4
14. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-3) +4
15. Texas A&M Aggies (8-3)
16. Clemson Tigers (9-2) +1
17. Arizona State Sun Devils (9-2) +3
18. BYU Cougars (9-2) -5
19. Tulane Green Wave (9-2) +3
20. Colorado Buffaloes (8-3) -4
21. Iowa State Cyclones (9-2) +3
22. UNLV Rebels (9-2) +1
23. Missouri Tigers (8-3) -4
24. Illinois Fighting Illini (8-3) NR
25. Army Black Knights (9-1) -4