ESPN predicts every game outcome on Kentucky's 2024 schedule

On Saturday, Kentucky will begin its 2024 campaign with a showdown against Southern Miss. The Wildcats will square off against the Golden Eagles inside Kroger Field at 7:45 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on the SEC Network.

Kentucky landed at No. 11 in the preseason SEC media poll. However, the ‘Cats have a capable roster heading into 2024. Former five-star quarterback Brock Vandagriff left Georgia to join Kentucky this offseason, bringing linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson with him.

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Additionally, Kentucky returned several key pieces, including wide receivers Barion Brown and Dane Key, along with standout defenders Deone Walker and Maxwell Hairston. Ahead of Kentucky’s season-opener, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) provided the program with projections for each of its 12 regular-season games.

Aug. 31: Kentucky vs. Southern Miss — 86% chance of win

ESPN expects Kentucky to burst out of the starting gates with a win over Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles are entering 2024 on the heels of back-to-back losing seasons. Alas, Southern Miss added several talented players in the transfer portal this offseason.

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Notably, Southern Miss reeled in a transfer commitment from former Florida State quarterback Tate Rodemaker. In his first start for the Seminoles last season, he led the team to a 24-15 win over in-state rival Florida.

Sept. 7: Kentucky vs. South Carolina — 55.7% chance of win

Kentucky won’t waste any time taking on an SEC opponent this season. In Week 2, the ‘Cats will clash against the Gamecocks, who defeated UK in narrow 17-14 fashion last season. Of course, South Carolina won’t have Spencer Rattler behind center this time around.

Nonetheless, South Carolina will have LaNorris Sellers, who head coach Shane Beamer named the team’s starting QB earlier this month. Linebacker Debo Williams will lead the Gamecocks’ defense. Williams tallied a team-high 113 tackles last season.

Sept. 14: Kentucky vs. Georgia — 12% chance of win

Kentucky doesn’t plan on rewarding itself with a rest after facing off against South Carolina. In Week 3, the ‘Cats will go head-to-head with the No. 1 team in the nation in the preseason AP Top 25.

As usual, Georgia is expected to be excellent this season. The Bulldogs will return starting quarterback Carson Beck, who amassed 3,941 passing yards and 24 touchdowns in 2023. With the No. 1 class in the 2024 recruiting cycle as well, Georgia will be a difficult test for the ‘Cats early this season.

Sept. 21: Kentucky vs. Ohio — 87.6% chance of win

After its grueling matchup against Georgia, Kentucky will change up the pace by hosting its northern neighbor, Ohio. The two programs have only met six times, with UK boasting a 4-2 all-time record. Kentucky and Ohio last met in 2014 when Kentucky won 20-3.

Ohio may face growing pains in 2024. The team lost its starting quarterback and running back this offseason, along with four other All-MAC selections. Nonetheless, it’s never safe to overlook Bobcats head coach Tim Albin, who has led the program to back-to-back 10-win seasons.

Sept. 28: Kentucky at Ole Miss — 29.6% chance of win

Kentucky fans can only hope the Wildcats recompose themselves in Week 4 against Ohio because Week 5 will be a war. Ole Miss is the No. 6 team in the AP Top 25 and oozing with talent.

The Rebels not only returned Jaxson Dart at quarterback for his third season as a full-time starter but they also added the No. 5 class in the transfer portal, according to On3’s Transfer Portal Team Rankings. The group is headlined by former Texas A&M defensive lineman Walter Nolen.

Oct. 12: Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt — 77.5% chance of win

Kentucky has won seven of its last eight meetings with Vanderbilt and ESPN doesn’t expect the Wildcats’ winning trend to slow this season. Last year, UK handily defeated the Commodores 45-28. Yet, Vanderbilt won’t lie down and accept defeat.

Head coach Clark Lea fired offensive coordinator Joey Lynch and replaced him with former New Mexico State OC Tim Beck this offseason. Then, Lea announced he will serve as Vanderbilt’s defensive coordinator, in addition to his head coaching duties, in 2024.

Oct. 19: Kentucky at Florida — 34% chance of win

Although Kentucky has won the past three years against Florida, ESPN lacks faith in Kentucky entering The Swamp. Quarterback Graham Mertz, running back Montrell Johnson and receiver Eugene Wilson III will provide a three-headed threat on offense for UF.

In contrast, Florida’s defense will have several unfamiliar faces, including Colorado transfer CB Cormani McClain and South Carolina transfer LB Grayson Howard. Kentucky will undoubtedly face a rowdy crowd in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Oct. 19.

Oct. 26: Kentucky vs. Auburn — 46.6% chance of win

Again, Kentucky will enter Week 9 as an underdog, according to ESPN’s FPI Index. It’s not a complete surprise. Expectations are high for Auburn in the program’s second season under head coach Hugh Freeze.

The team returned starting quarterback Payton Thorne and running backs Jarquez Hunter, Damari Alston and Jeremiah Cobb. Additionally, Auburn had the No. 8 class in the 2024 recruiting cycle, headlined by five-star wide receiver Cam Coleman, who turned heads this summer.

Nov. 2: Kentucky at Tennessee — 20.5% chance of win

Tennessee has had Kentucky’s number in recent years, winning five of the programs’ last six showdowns. Most recently, the Volunteers defeated Kentucky 33-27 last season. Things won’t be any easier for Kentucky this year.

Redshirt freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava will lead the charge for Tennessee in his first season as a full-time starter. On the other side of the ball, Tennessee returns James Pearce Jr., who was a 2023 All-SEC First Team member.

Nov. 16: Kentucky vs. Murray State — 98.6% chance of win

After Kentucky takes on Tennessee, it will enjoy a well-earned bye week. Then, the Wildcats will dive headfirst into the final stretch of the regular season, starting with an in-state showdown against the Racers.

Murray State didn’t give Kentucky any reason to be nervous in its 51-0 loss against Missouri in Week 1. In the loss, the Racers amassed a mere 86 yards of total offense and committed two turnovers.

Nov. 23: Kentucky at Texas — 10.7% chance of win

In Texas’ first season in the SEC, it will host the Wildcats. ESPN isn’t counting on the Longhorns welcoming Kentucky with open arms. After all, Texas is coming off an appearance in the College Football Playoff and is the No. 4 team in the nation.

At every turn, Texas radiates immense talent. The team has perhaps the best quarterback in the nation in Quinn Ewers. Moreover, he’s well protected, with Texas returning four of its starting offensive linemen from last season. It’ll take an excellent game plan for the ‘Cats to escape the Lone Star State with smiles on their faces.

Nov. 30: Kentucky vs. Louisville — 44.3% chance of win

In spite of ESPN’s prediction, Kentucky has won the Governor’s Cup the last five seasons. However, Louisville is inevitably on the rise. In head coach Jeff Brohm‘s debut campaign with the Cardinals in 2023, he led the team to an appearance in the ACC Championship.

Louisville will be dangerous again this season after returning 66% of its production from last season. Further, Brohm reeled in the No. 1 class in the transfer portal, according to On3’s Transfer Portal Team Rankings.

ESPN’s FPI final record projection for Kentucky — 6-6

ESPN ultimately projects Kentucky to finish the 2024 regular season with a 6-6 record. It would be the worst record for Kentucky since 2020 when the ‘Cats went 5-6 — all six of its losses coming in conference play.

Head coach Mark Stoops certainly doesn’t expect a step backward for Kentucky. The program hired former Boise State offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan this offseason after Liam Coen left the program for the NFL.

The Big Blue Nation won’t have to wait much longer to watch their beloved team take the field. On Saturday, the ‘Cats will jumpstart their season against Southern Miss at 7:45 p.m. ET.