ESPN predicts every game outcome on Michigan's 2024 schedule

The 2024 season is one of change for Michigan. New head coach, new starting quarterback, new conference opponents and even a new College Football Playoff format — even if making the 12-team field is a bit of a longer shot.

And after going 30-3 across the past three seasons, it’s quite possible Michigan loses as many games just this year. That’s what the ESPN FPI projects, as things currently stand, especially with an elite non-conference opponent visiting the Big House and two national title favorites on the league slate.

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Elsewhere, a few games are projected to be close, but with Michigan having a decent edge, including in a a national championship rematch. See the full projections for the whole slate below.

Aug. 31: Michigan vs. Fresno State — 89% chance of Michigan win

A new age dawns for Michigan football with Jim Harbaugh returning to the NFL. Enter new head coach Sherrone Moore.

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A Harbaugh disciple and the Wolverines’ offensive coordinator during the run of three-straight Big Ten titles and College Football Playoff appearances, the Wolverines likely aren’t going to look all that different schematically. But as the Moore era progresses, he’s certain to put his own twist on things, perhaps starting with what ESPN expects to be a walkover opening for the Wolverines against Fresno State.

Sept. 7: Michigan vs. Texas — 34.6% chance of Michigan win

After a few seasons of paltry non-conference schedules, Michigan welcomes Texas to the Big House. The Longhorns are also coming off a CFP berth and return one of the best quarterbacks in the nation in Quinn Ewers.

It will be an immense test for the Wolverines defense, which returns a plethora of top talent, including potential first round picks in Mason Graham, Will Johnson and Kenneth Grant. If the quarterback — a starter is yet to be named — can bring enough to bear for the Michigan offense, the Wolverines might have enough to overcome an opponent the FPI doesn’t like its chances against.

Sept. 14: Michigan vs. Arkansas State — 92.3% chance of Michigan win

After the monstrous Week 2 matchup, Michigan gets a reprieve with what should be a second walk-over win of the non-conference slate. The ESPN FPI clearly agrees and expects Michigan to roll to a win over Arkansas State.

The early weeks of the season will also be fascinating to study how the defense changes under new coordinator Don ‘Wink’ Martindale. He fits in the same Baltimore Ravens-esque school that Michigan’s previous defensive coordinators have come from, but is known for his penchant for aggressive blitzing.

Sept. 21: Michigan vs. USC — 65.7% chance of Michigan win

The first of three matchups against new West Coast Big Ten teams beings the Trojans to the Big House in a game the FPI gives Michigan a solid edge in. It will also be the first Big Ten contest for USC, an excellent litmus test for the trenches.

USC has certainly made a point of trying to strengthen the lines this offseason, and head coach Lincoln Riley rarely comes to play without dangerous weapons. But the hosts might just be able to push the Trojans around enough to win this game.

Sept. 28: Michigan vs. Minnesota — 84.2% chance of Michigan win

Michigan battered Minnesota on the road last year and the Gophers don’t stand much of a better chance of winning this time around, according to the FPI. Minnesota will likely run it’s offense through star tailback Darius Taylor, a tall challenge against Michigan’s defensive front and interior.

And by Week 5, it’s a safe bet that Moore and Co. has a clear picture of who gives the Wolverines the best chance at winning at quarterback. That clarity, plus a Minnesota team lacking in top-end defensive talent, could have Michigan rolling to a win.

Oct. 5: Michigan at Washington — 60.2% chance of Michigan win

Michigan’s second game against a former Pac-12 team now in the league is also a rematch of the national championship game. Michigan rolled over Washington, ultimately, in January, and is given a slight edge to win this matchup, according to the FPI.

While the Wolverines are overhauling plenty this offseason, especially on offense, the Washington roster overhaul might be even greater. The Huskies also replaced a head coach and quarterback, but didn’t get the luxury of promoting from within to maintain continuity.

Oct. 19: Michigan at Illinois — 79.4% chance of Michigan win

Illinois has fielded some feisty teams in recent years, including one that took Michigan to the brink of a devastating home loss in November 2022. But the FPI is not as confident in the Illini to threaten the Wolverines this time around.

Much of the talent that made Illinois so feisty is now in the NFL, including a pair of fearsome interior defensive linemen. As such, the talent advantage probably makes this a rather ho-hum win for the Wolverines.

Oct. 26: Michigan vs. Michigan State — 86.5% chance of Michigan win

For the first time in about half a decade — and nearly a decade from the infamous 2015 game — the Michigan-Michigan State game has a chance to be relatively normal. From a Covid upset, a Top 10 showdown, a tunnel brawl and the Connor Stalions news breaking days before the game, each of the last four games have carried plenty of drama and vitriol.

With two new head coaches, the Spartans pushing to be competitive in Year 1 of a rebuild and Michigan likely holding a solid talent advantage, the FPI gives the home Wolverines a big edge to win. Even still, it’s a safe bet the intensity around The Mitten will crank up in late October, regardless

Nov. 2: Michigan vs. Oregon — 34.4% chance of Michigan win

The Wolverines is favored in all but three games in 2024, according to the FPI. And Oregon is the only league newcomer that Michigan isn’t favored to beat on the schedule.

The Ducks are one of the most talented rosters in the country and a prohibitive national championship favorite as such. The FPI isn’t so lopsided that Michigan can’t make a game of it or pull what would likely be an upset, but the Ducks are still the likely winner.

Nov. 9: Michigan at Indiana — 83% chance of Michigan win

Indiana will be rebuilding with a new coach in 2024. And even with the continuity of the same coach and staff, the Wolverines would still probably be strong favorites.

Since a historic win in 2020 for the Hoosiers — the first for Indiana since the late 1980s — Michigan has returned to regularly beating the Hoosiers. The 2024 campaign shouldn’t be much different.

Nov. 23: Michigan vs. Northwestern — 85.3% chance of Michigan win

The Big Ten made this matchup a trophy game a few years ago, and the George Jewett Trophy has been in Ann Arbor ever since. The FPI doesn’t predict 2024 to be the year it goes to Evanston.

Northwestern was a surprise team in 2023, making a bowl and over performing expectations after firing long-time head coach Pat Fitzgerald weeks before training camp began. The Wildcats could certainly keep building on that, but will still likely take a loss in Ann Arbor in the penultimate week of the season.

Nov. 30 Michigan at Ohio State — 25.5% chance of Michigan win

While the Wolverines flipped the matchup on its head the past three years, running over Ohio State on the way to three-straight Big Ten titles and CFP appearances, 2024 is likely the year that run ends. On top of traveling to Columbus with a first year quarterback and head coach, Ohio State has if not the best, one of the two or three best rosters in College Football.

Thusly, the FPI is not high on Michigan in this contest. But, in prior years when the Wolverines beat Ohio State, the FPI was also favoring the Buckeyes.

And with so much still to be decided for Michigan — namely a starting quarterback — it’s a safe bet some of these projections can shift as the year goes on.