ESPN predicts every game outcome on Nebraska's 2024 schedule
Matt Rhule is in his second year as Nebraska’s head coach. The Cornhuskers are quarterbacked by a unanimous five-star prospect and Elite 11 finalist, true freshman Dylan Raiola. After a five-win season last year, a 2024 breakout could be in the cards.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) is projecting how the Huskers will fare in their 12-game slate.
Here’s a game-by-game breakdown of the FPI’s outlook for Nebraska’s 2024 campaign.
Aug. 31: Nebraska vs. UTEP — 86.3% chance of win
There’s a world in which Nebraska starts the season 7-0. The FPI favors the Huskers in their first seven games, starting with their home opener against UTEP.
Speaking of home games, Nebraska has four of them in a row to start the 2024 campaign.
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Sept. 7: Nebraska vs. Colorado — 51.9% chance of win
Ah, yes, another Nebraska-Colorado, early-season showdown — last year, the Buffaloes rolled to a 36-14 victory to the tune of 393 passing yards from Shedeur Sanders. But that was before Colorado fell off and Nebraska found its footing.
That also was in Boulder, not Lincoln, where this year’s rematch will be played. Nebraska leads the all-time series, 49-21-2.
Sept. 14: Nebraska vs. Northern Iowa — 88.4% chance of win
Like the season opener against UTEP, Nebraska should have no problem whatsoever with FCS Northern Iowa in Week 3. Actually, the FPI gives the Huskers an even higher chance of winning this matchup.
UNI, by the way, has to go to Hawaii for its following game and then, after a bye week, saddle up and take on the top-ranked FCS team right now, South Dakota State. Yikes.
Sept. 20: Nebraska vs. Illinois — 65.3% chance of win
Nebraska will wrap up its four-game homestand with its third consecutive primetime matchup, this time on a Friday night against Illinois. The Huskers are ahead in the all-time series, 14-6-1. They snapped a three-game losing streak to the Fighting Illini last year with a triumphant 20-7 victory.
It could be Nebraska’s turn to stack wins now. If the Huskers do so, they’ll get off on the right foot in Big Ten play.
Sept. 28: Nebraska at Purdue — 54.3% chance of win
The Big Ten West doesn’t exist anymore, but the beginning of Nebraska’s league slate sure feels normal. The Huskers play another former division foe in Purdue in Week 5.
The question is, have the Boilermakers squared away their offensive line yet? If so, the Nebraska secondary could get a test from quarterback Hudson Card and the Graham Harrell offense. That’s a big “if,” though.
Oct. 5: Nebraska vs. Rutgers — 57.3% chance of win
Finally, the Huskers welcome a former Big Ten East team to the table in Week 6. They’ll host an upstart Rutgers team that’s got a lot of good pieces in the fifth year of Greg Schiano’s second go-around as head coach.
The Scarlet Knights could be pretty darn good defensively this year. Led by coordinator Joe Harasymiak, the Rutgers defense was top 50 in yards allowed per game (16th), points allowed per game (33rd) as well as both rushing yards allowed per game (43rd) and passing yards allowed per game (10th) last season. The bulk of that group is back.
Oct. 19: Nebraska at Indiana — 62.3% chance of win
New head coach Curt Cignetti might get things turned around at Indiana eventually, but immediate results are a lot to ask for. Indiana has a thin margin for error this season, especially with depth concerns on the offensive and defensive lines.
Nebraska’s in Bloomington for this head-to-head, but the FPI likes the Huskers to come out with a win.
Oct. 26: Nebraska at No. 2 Ohio State — 8.6% chance of win
So if Nebraska does in fact enter Ohio Stadium 7-0, the Huskers will surely be ranked against arguably the best team in the country. The storylines will be rich, particularly because Raiola was originally committed to Ohio State.
The Buckeyes have the clear talent advantage on paper — they returned 11 draft-eligible and starter-level players, plus they added some of the biggest names in the transfer portal this offseason, such as safety Caleb Downs (Alabama), running back Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss) and quarterback Will Howard (Kansas State).
Nov. 2: Nebraska vs. UCLA — 54.9% chance of win
After Nebraska faces Ohio State, it returns home for the first of two straight games against the Big Ten’s California schools.
UCLA is expected to take a step back at the beginning of the DeShaun Foster era, but if Ethan Garbers flourishes as the full-time starting quarterback, perhaps the Bruins will turn heads in 2024. That scenario would make this a harder “get right” game for the Huskers.
Nov. 16: Nebraska at No. 23 USC — 26.7% chance of win
Next up, Nebraska has to make the trip to Los Angeles to play USC. At this point, the Trojans are one of three ranked opponents on the Huskers’ schedule. That number could change, though, and USC could either rise in the AP Poll or fall out of it — Lincoln Riley’s bunch has a four opponents ranked in the top 15 of the preseason AP Poll, after all.
The million dollar question is, has USC fixed its defense? Regardless, winning this game on the road will be difficult for Nebraska.
Nov. 23: Nebraska vs. Wisconsin — 54.4% chance of win
The Huskers finish the season with a pair of rivalry games, starting with a home bash against Wisconsin.
If Miami transfer quarterback Tyler Van Dyke can near the level of play he showcased as ACC Rookie of the Year in 2021, the “Air Raid” Phil Longo offense will be in much better shape during the second year of the Luke Fickell era in Madison.
Nov. 29: Nebraska at No. 25 Iowa — 40.3% chance of win
Iowa has won nine of the last 11 meetings in the storied history of “The Heroes Game.” At this point in the year, the Hawkeyes could be playing for not only a shot at the Big Ten Championship but also a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Nebraska will likely be in position to up its bowl standing. There will be even higher stakes than normal.
ESPN’s FPI final record projection for Nebraska: 6.5-5.5
ESPN’s FPI projects that Nebraska will finish with 6.5 wins despite favoring the Huskers in nine of their 12 regular season games. That said, Nebraska has a sub-60% chance of winning in five of the nine games it’s favored in, per the FPI. So, according to the metric, there are handful of games that can probably go either way for the Huskers this season.
Just getting to six wins and reaching a bowl game for the first time since 2016 would be an achievement, although the expectations in Lincoln for the second year of the Rhule era call for a bigger splash than that.