ESPN predicts every game outcome on Tennessee's 2024 schedule

In the past two seasons, Tennessee posted a combined 20-6 record and secured two bowl game victories. In head coach Josh Heupel‘s fourth season at the helm of the program, the Volunteers are hungry to take the next step.

Redshirt freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava will lead the charge for Tennessee in his first season as a full-time starter. On the other side of the ball, Tennessee returns James Pearce Jr., who was a 2023 All-SEC First Team member.

Tennessee has all the pieces to put together an excellent 2024 campaign. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) provided the program with projections for each of its 12 regular-season games, starting with the Volunteers’ Week 1 showdown against Chattanooga.

Aug. 31: Tennessee vs Chattanooga — 99% chance of win

Tennessee has won its last four season-openers and ESPN doesn’t expect Chattanooga to end the Vols’ streak. Tennessee will be fired up for the game and hoping to set a tone for the rest of the season. The Volunteers’ excitement likely won’t bode well for Chattanooga.

After all, history isn’t on Chattanooga’s side. The two programs have faced off 42 times, with Tennessee boasting a 40-2 all-time record. Tennessee last lost to Chattanooga in 1958 and has won the programs’ last 10 meetings.

Sept. 7: Tennessee vs. NC State — 69.4% chance of win

Tennessee won’t have long to soak in its Week 1 win. In Week 2, Tennessee will square off against NC State, which landed at No. 24 in the preseason AP Top 25. Fans can expect fireworks in the highly-anticipated showdown.

NC State’s offense is loaded this season, returning wide receiver Kevin “KC” Concepcion, who won the 2023 ACC Rookie of the Year Award. Additionally, the Wolfpack added Coastal Carolina transfer QB Grayson McCall. With so many weapons on NC State, Tennessee’s defense will be tested.

Sept. 14: Tennessee vs. Kent State — 98.5% chance of win

After a grueling showdown against NC State, Tennessee will have a bounce-back game against Kent State. In the 2023 campaign, Kent State went 1-11 and lost 10 of its games by double digits.

Alas, Tennessee can’t take the Golden Flashes lightly. The team has two All-MAC wide receivers out wide in Chrishon McCray and Luke Floriea. McCray was an All-MAC First Team member last season after averaging 68 receiving yards per game.

Sept. 21: Tennessee at Oklahoma — 40.1% chance of win

ESPN expects the Volunteers to be underdogs in their first road game of the season. Expectations are high for Oklahoma sophomore QB Jackson Arnold. In his lone start last season, he tallied 361 passing yards and two touchdowns.

However, he was far from perfect, also throwing three interceptions. Tennessee’s defense will be pivotal against the inexperienced gunslinger. Of course, Arnold isn’t Oklahoma’s only threat. The Sooners return 79% of their defensive production from last year and will be difficult to move the ball against.

Oct. 5: Tennessee at Arkansas — 74.5% chance of win

Following its inevitable meeting with the Sooners, Tennessee will enjoy a bye week before squaring off against Arkansas. After going 1-7 in conference play last season, the Razorbacks revamped their roster and staff.

In late November, head coach Sam Pittman hired offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino, who previously served as the program’s head coach. With Petrino calling the shots on offense, the Razorbacks will keep the Volunteers on their toes.

Oct. 12: Tennessee vs Florida — 70% chance of win

After falling in stunning 29-16 fashion to Florida last year, Tennessee will be out for revenge against the Gators. Nevertheless, it won’t be easy. Quarterback Graham Mertz, running back Montrell Johnson and receiver Eugene Wilson III will provide a three-headed threat on offense for UF.

In contrast, Florida’s defense will have several unfamiliar faces, including Colorado transfer CB Cormani McClain and South Carolina transfer LB Grayson Howard. Tennessee will have to tread lightly to avoid repeating the same mistake it made last fall.

Oct. 19: Tennessee vs Alabama — 42% chance of win

Neyland Stadium will be louder than usual when the Crimson Tide come to town. The last time Alabama invaded Knoxville, the Volunteers defeated the Crimson Tide 52-49 with a game-winning field goal. Tennessee fans stormed the field, taking the goal posts down in the chaos.

It’s safe to assume Alabama’s veterans haven’t forgotten the image. In his first season at the helm, head coach Kalen DeBoer will look to send a message with quarterback Jalen Milroe by his side. Alas, ESPN doesn’t expect it to be easy on Tennessee’s home turf.

Nov. 2: Tennessee vs Kentucky — 79.4% chance of win

With another bye week, Tennessee will have a moment to breath following its battle against Alabama. Then, the Wildcats are coming to town. The Volunteers have defeated Kentucky in their past three meetings. Yet, Kentucky certainly won’t lie down and accept defeat.

Over the offseason, the Wildcats hired former Boise State OC Bush Hamdan to serve as the team’s primary play-caller. Hamdan hopes to lead the ‘Cats to unprecedented success with the ball in former Georgia QB Brock Vandagriff‘s hands.

Nov. 9: Tennessee vs Mississippi State — 83.5% chance of win

ESPN gives Tennessee even better odds against Mississippi State than Kentucky. In fairness, the Bulldogs are expected to have growing pains during head coach Jeff Lebby‘s first season behind the steering wheel.

MSU lost seven of its top eight tacklers from a season ago, including linebackers Nathaniel Watson and Jett Johnson, who finished first and second, respectively, in the SEC in tackles.

Nov. 16: Tennessee at Georgia — 20.6% chance of win

ESPN gives Tennessee its lowest chance of a win in the regular season in its away game against No. 1 Georgia. The Bulldogs have won their last eight meetings against the Volunteers. Georgia won by 20 or more points in seven of those victories.

As usual, Georgia is expected to be excellent this season. The Bulldogs will return starting quarterback Carson Beck, who tallied 3,941 passing yards and 24 touchdowns in 2023. With the No. 1 class in the 2024 recruiting cycle as well, Georgia is poised for a standout campaign.

Nov. 23: Tennessee vs UTEP — 95.8% chance of win

After seven straight SEC opponents, Tennessee will take on UTEP on Nov. 23. It will be Tennessee’s Salute to Service game and the Volunteers will aim to make any final corrections with the postseason just around the corner.

UTEP hired head coach Scotty Walden this offseason. Walden was handed a tall task, having to replace the Miners’ starting QB, best running back and best defensive player. Nonetheless, UTEP will undoubtedly enter Neyland with hopes to shock the nation.

Nov. 30: Tennessee at Vanderbilt — 84.9% chance of win

Vanderbilt was the only team that failed to win a conference game last season and ESPN expects Tennessee to hand the Commodores another loss this year. Even so, Vanderbilt didn’t kick its feet up during the offseason.

Head coach Clark Lea fired offensive coordinator Joey Lynch and replaced him with former New Mexico State OC Tim Beck. Then, Lea announced he will serve as Vanderbilt’s defensive coordinator, in addition to his head coaching duties, in 2024.

ESPN’s FPI final record projection for Tennessee — 8.6-3.5

Although ESPN only lists Tennessee as an underdog in two games, the FPI predicts the Volunteers won’t win more than nine games. If Tennessee wins less than nine games, it will be a step back for the program.

In 2022, Heupel led the Volunteers to an 11-2 record and narrowly missed the College Football Playoff. In 2023, Tennessee only won nine games but its offense and defense respectively still ranked in the top 30 in the country.

With the introduction of the 12-team CFP, Tennessee has a chance to make history this season. If ESPN’s FPI is any indication, Tennessee fans could have a fun season ahead of them.