ESPN predicts first College Football Playoff Top 25 using BCS-style formula

In less than two weeks, the first College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings will come out. The CFP is entering a new era with 12 teams in the field – but ESPN went back in time with its predictions, using a BCS-style formula.

The BCS formula used computer projections along with the AP and USA Today Coaches polls to rank the top 25 teams. It went the wayside in 2013 when the College Football Playoff came to be, but it’s still interesting to look at how the old model would set the rankings.

According to ESPN’s BCS-style formula, Oregon would come in as the No. 1 team in the nation. The Ducks moved up to the top spot this week following a Week 7 victory over Ohio State at Autzen Stadium and a blowout win over Purdue on a short week, which came as No. 1 Texas fell and opened the door for the move up.

The Longhorns struggled in the first half against Georgia en route to the 30-15 loss at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. Per ESPN’s BCS-style formula, that victory would be enough to move the Bulldogs up to No. 2 behind Oregon despite the loss to Alabama on their resume. UGA would be ahead of undefeated Penn State.

The first College Football Playoff Top 25 is set to release Nov. 5 exclusively on ESPN. In the meantime, here’s where the BCS-style formula would have the rankings ahead of Week 9.

1. Oregon

Oregon looked like it had the makings for a letdown week following a thrilling upset win over Ohio State. However, the Ducks didn’t miss a beat, defeating Purdue 35-0 at Ross-Ade Stadium in a Friday night matchup.

Oregon now appears to be the consensus top team in the country as Big Ten play continues to heat up. Dan Lanning’s group is firing on all cylinders heading into an intriguing matchup against Illinois in what’s now a Top-20 matchup this week.

2. Georgia

It had been a long time since Georgia was the underdog, and all predictions indicated that was the case last week in Austin. But the Bulldogs made their mark quickly and came away with the 30-15 victory at Texas to remind everyone they’re still one of the top teams in the country.

UGA got a complete performance on both sides of the ball, but the defense made a strong impression. Texas totaled 259 yards of offense, including just 29 on the ground, and the Bulldogs now find themselves with a clearer path to the College Football Playoff.

3. Penn State

New offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki appears to be living up to the billing at Penn State, which enters Week 9 with a perfect 8-0 record. The Nittany Lions rank No. 3 in the Big Ten in total offense and came in at No. 3 in ESPN’s BCS-style formula rankings.

Drew Allar ranks second in the Big Ten with 10.2 yards per pass attempt this year and the defense is holding teams to just 14.5 points per game as Penn State comes out of the bye week. A matchup with Wisconsin awaits, but all eyes are on next week’s showdown against Ohio State in what could be another Top-5 showdown.

4. Ohio State

Despite losing to Oregon in the final seconds, Ohio State is still a strong contender in the new-look Big Ten. The Buckeyes possess plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball and still have a path to the College Football Playoff despite the road loss.

Ohio State had its final bye week after falling to Oregon with Nebraska awaiting this week. The Buckeyes lead the Big Ten in scoring defense and are second in the league in scoring offense, showing their abilities on both sides of the ball as the race to Indianapolis heats up – and gets interesting with some new contenders.

5. Texas

Despite the home loss to Georgia, Texas still came in as a Top-5 team in ESPN’s BCS-style formula projections. The Longhorns struggled mightily in the first half before appearing to find their stride after halftime, but it wasn’t enough to come back against a staunch Bulldogs team.

Texas is now one of four teams with a 2-1 record in SEC play heading into what’s now a Top-25 matchup this week against Vanderbilt. There’s still a road for Steve Sarkisian’s group to make the CFP, but some big games await as Year 1 in the SEC starts to wind down.

6. Miami

The playmakers Miami brought in from the transfer portal continue to make a major impact this year to keep the Hurricanes in the College Football Playoff hunt. Cam Ward continues to make a case for the Heisman Trophy as they take a 7-0 record into this week’s game against Florida State.

Miami, picked third in the ACC preseason poll, now has its sights set on Charlotte and potentially a CFP appearance. The Hurricanes’ high-powered offense continues to impress, leading the ACC in both total offense and scoring, and the schedule could be in Mario Cristobal’s favor the rest of the way.

7. Tennessee

For the second time in three years, Tennessee got a victory on the Third Saturday in October. The Volunteers knocked off Alabama at Neyland Stadium as they continue to bounce back from a loss to Arkansas and get back into the College Football Playoff picture.

Dylan Sampson continues to lead the charge for the Vols, averaging 119.7 yards on the ground entering Week 9. While some big games await – Georgia is coming up in just a few weeks – Tennessee finds itself at No. 7 in ESPN’s BCS-style formula projections following the Alabama victory.

8. LSU

After a season-opening loss to USC, it’s been an impressive run for LSU en route to a 6-1 record. A Top-10 victory over Ole Miss bolstered the Tigers’ resume, as well, as they came in at No. 8 in ESPN’s CFP projections, per the BCS-style formula.

LSU has more big games to go, though, starting with this week’s high-profile matchup against No. 14 Texas A&M. Alabama also awaits next week as part of an important two-game stretch for Brian Kelly’s group.

9. Clemson

A blowout loss to Georgia could’ve spelled disaster for Clemson. But the Tigers responded well, rattling off six straight wins and scoring at least 28 points in each game during that run.

Cade Klubnik is taking the leap many wanted him to take, already surpassing last year’s total with 20 touchdowns to go with 1,836 yards. Dabo Swinney’s group is rolling as it heads into the bye week, and Louisville awaits next week.

10. Notre Dame

The path to the College Football Playoff appeared clear for Notre Dame after a Week 1 win over Texas A&M. But the Fighting Irish’s resume is still recovering from a loss to Northern Illinois a week later, and ESPN’s BCS-style projection has them at No. 10 in the College Football Playoff prediction.

Notre Dame is in the midst of a five-game winning streak, including a dominant victory over Georgia Tech last week. The Irish face a tough task this week, though, as they take on a red-hot Navy team at MetLife Stadium with more CFP implications.

No. 11-25

11. Iowa State
12. Indiana
13. BYU
14. Texas A&M
15. Alabama
16. Kansas State
17. Ole Miss
18. Missouri
19. Boise State
20. Pitt
21. SMU
22. Illinois
23. Army
24. Navy
25. South Carolina

The first College Football Playoff rankings reveal is coming up Nov. 5 on ESPN. In the meantime, the picture will become clearer as the race to the 12-team field heats up.