ESPN predicts penultimate College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings after Week 14

College football’s 2024 regular season is officially in the books, with only Championship Weekend remaining before the 13-member College Football Playoff selection committee finalizes the first-ever 12-team playoff field next Sunday.

But first, there’s the penultimate CFP Top 25 rankings reveal Tuesday evening, which will set the stage for Saturday’s conference championship games as the Power 4 and at least one Group of Five champion formally punch their tickets into the 12-team field.

Heather Dinich, ESPN’s foremost expert on the CFP committee’s selection process, unveiled her projections for how Tuesday’s penultimate Top 25 ranking will look below:

1. Oregon Ducks (12-0)

As college football’s lone team to finish the regular season undefeated, the Ducks hold firm to the No. 1 overall spot ahead of next Saturday’s Big Ten championship game against Penn State in Indianapolis. Oregon is riding high after exorcising its own demons Saturday having snapped a three-game losing streak to former Pac-12 rival Washington with a 49-21 drubbing in Eugene.

Dinich cited the Ducks’ No. 1 strength of record according to ESPN’s metric, with wins over Ohio State and Michigan in its first season in the Big Ten, as well as its win over Boise State, the likely Mountain West champion. Oregon now faces the Nittany Lions for the Big Ten Championship after Penn State backed into the title game by way of its win over Maryland and Ohio State‘s shocking loss in The Game earlier Saturday.

2. Texas Longhorns (11-1) +1

Given the aforementioned loss by the previous-No. 2 Buckeyes, Texas slides up a spot after edging bitter rival Texas A&M 17-7 in Saturday’s renewal of the Lone Star Showdown series from College Station. It was a statement win for a Longhorns squad that has won five straight since a 30-15 loss to visiting Georgia in mid-October.

Texas will now get a shot at revenge against those same Bulldogs in next weekend’s SEC Championship Game from Atlanta. Dinich believes if the Longhorns fall to Georgia again, they will likely drop behind the Bulldogs on Selection Sunday, but should stay ahead of a two-loss Ohio State and secure a first-round Playoff game in Austin.

3. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) +1

As mentioned above, the Nittany Lions advanced to the program’s first Big Ten Championship Game since winning the league in 2016. Since then, the Big Ten has been split between Ohio State and Michigan, whose 13-10 upset of the second-ranked Buckeyes in The Game on Saturday — coupled with PSU’s 44-7 blowout of Maryland — punched the Lions’ ticket to Indianapolis.

Dinich gives Penn State the benefit of the doubt over Notre Dame given ESPN analystics that favor the Nittany Lions in strength of record and schedule. Given those advantages, Dinich also expects PSU to earn a first-round home game in Happy Valley even with a loss in the Big Ten Championship Game.

4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) +1

The Fighting Irish are college football’s hottest team outside of undefeated Oregon, winning 10 straight since a head-scratching Week 2 home loss to Northern Illinois. It’s because of that reality, as well as its lack of a conference championship game given its independent status, that Dinich is confident Notre Dame has not only secured one of the CFP’s seven at-large bids, but also a first-round home playoff game.

While the championship games could still shake up the final College Football Playoff rankings/seeding, Dinich reinforced the point that the highest the Irish could land is fifth given the Top 4 seeds are reserved for conference champions.

5. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) +2

Despite a somewhat less-than-inspiring performance in an eight-overtime 44-42 win over rival Georgia Tech, the Bulldogs are the CFP’s top two-loss team due to its three wins over current CFP Top 25 teams Clemson, Texas and Tennessee. It’s those Top 25 victories that give it the advantage over Ohio State, following the Buckeyes home loss to Michigan.

Georgia’s place in the 12-team field is all-but set in stone given Texas’ win over rival Texas A&M, providing the Bulldogs the trump card of having a win over the SEC Champion, should the Longhorns get their revenge in Atlanta. Of course, Georgia could solve all doubt by simply beating Texas again and securing a first-round bye as SEC champion.

6. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) -4

The Buckeyes fall into the mix among college football’s best two-loss teams after the unranked Wolverines handed them a disappointing 13-10 loss in Columbus on Saturday. Still, Dinich pointed to Ohio State’s regular-season wins over Penn State and Indiana for their place at No. 6 and ahead of the SEC’s other two-loss contender.

Without another game to play, the Buckeyes are at the mercy of the committee and what ultimately happens in the Big Ten title game on Saturday. Given its head-to-head win over Penn State, a Nittany Lions loss to Oregon in Indianapolis could allow Ohio State to stay in the Top 8 and secure a first-round home Playoff game, whereas an Oregon loss could push the Buckeyes out of the mix to host.

7. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) +1

The Volunteers managed to hold off upstart Vanderbilt for a 36-23 win in Nashville, claiming state bragging rights and guaranteeing themselves a spot in the 12-team CFP field. The only question is whether or not Tennessee ultimately hosts a first-round Playoff home game inside Neyland Stadium.

Much like Ohio State, Tennessee must wait to see how things fare in the SEC Championship Game before it learns where it lands on Selection Sunday. A win by Texas could push Georgia out of the mix for a first-round home game, with the Vols as the key beneficary. Whereas a Bulldogs’ win would mean the Longhorns get a first-round home game and push Tennessee onto the road.

8. SMU Mustangs (11-1) +1

The Mustangs could go a long way to securing its place in the 12-team Playoff field with a win over a four-loss Clemson in the ACC Championship game Saturday, thus earning a Top 4 overall seed as conference champions.

Of course, should SMU fall to Clemson in Charlotte, Dinich isn’t certain the Mustangs have enough of a resume to secure one of the final seven at-large bids, especially if it’s a blowout loss. SMU has been on a tear of late, winning nine straight since a 18-15 loss to BYU in early September, but won’t have a single Top 25 win on its record if the Tigers win on Saturday.

9. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) +2

The Hoosiers rebounded from its close Week 13 loss to Ohio State in Columbus by blowing out rival Purdue 66-0 last Saturday and all-but-guaranteeed its place in the 12-team field in the process. Although Dinich doesn’t see Indiana leapfrogging SMU in the penultimate rankings Tuesday, their Playoff spot appears secure as the Big Ten’s fourth representative.

That said, given where the other Big Ten reps fall on Selection Sunday, the Hoosiers are likely looking forward to a first-round road game. The only avenue for Indiana to get a late boost in the rankings is a Clemson upset of SMU, which would push the Mustangs down and the Hoosiers into the mix to host.

10. Boise State Broncos (11-1)

All they do is win, win, win. Should the Broncos continue their winning ways and claim their second-straight Mountain West championship with a win over UNLV, Boise appears set to secure the final Top 4 seed and a first-round bye as the fourth-highest ranked conference champs in the field.

Despite a less-than-stellar resume, the Broncos have won 10 straight since a 37-34 loss at Oregon in early September and have proven themselves with victories over Washington State and a current Top-20 ranked Rebels squad in late October.

ESPN’s College Football Playoff rankings 11-25

11. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) -5
12. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3)
13. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3)
14. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3)
15. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) +2
16. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2) +5
17. Clemson Tigers (9-3) -1
18. BYU Cougars (10-2)
19. Missouri Tigers (9-3) +4
20. UNLV Rebels (10-2) +2
21. Colorado Buffaloes (9-3) -1
22. Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3) +2
23. Syracuse Orange (9-3) NR
24. Memphis Tigers (10-2) NR
25. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) -10