ESPN predicts SEC order of finish for 2025 college football season

The 2025 college football season is only a few months away now. With that, ESPN has predicted the order of finish across the SEC.

ESPN’s FPI metric, which is used to measure team strength and is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance throughout the season, was what ESPN leaned on for these predictions. It assigned each SEC team a percent chance to win the conference and then ranked them based on that.

The SEC is a conference that expects to get multiple teams to the College Football Playoff. So, being at the top of the conference and competitive is an indicator that teams could be national championship contenders. So, with that in mind, here’s a look at ESPN’s order of finish prediction for the SEC.

1. Texas Longhorns (34.1%)

The Texas Longhorns made a statement in their first season in the SEC, going to the SEC Championship and their second straight College Football Playoff. There, they’d fall short and lose the SEC Championship to Georgia before getting knocked out of the CFP by Ohio State. Still, expectations are clearly high for the Longhorns going into the 2025 season.

Much of those expectations come from new starting quarterback Arch Manning. After two seasons of primarily being the backup to Quinn Ewers, the former five-star recruit and top-rated prospect is going to get his chance to run the offense. Along with an incredibly talented team around him, it’s not a surprise expectations are high in Austin.

2. Georgia Bulldogs (26.9%)

The Georgia Bulldogs return as the defending SEC Champions from last season. It was their third conference title since head coach Kirby Smart took over and their fourth straight appearance in the SEC Championship Game. From there, they earned a bye to the College Football Playoff before getting bumped out in the Sugar Bowl against Notre Dame.

Next season, expectations are high once again for Georgia. The roster is still incredibly talented from top to bottom, but particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The only major question for Smart and the Bulldogs has become the quarterback position. There, it’s an open battle for the starting job to replace Carson Beck, who transferred out of the school.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide (17.2%)

The Alabama Crimson Tide are heading into their second season under head coach Kalen DeBoer. He’d go 9-4 in his first season there with some massive highs, like beating eventual SEC Champion Georgia, and some lows, like tough losses to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma on the road. Those losses were enough to keep the Crimson Tide on the outside looking in at the CFP.

Now, two years removed from the Nick Saban era, the Crimson Tide are going to continue to take on Kalen DeBoer’s image. A major part of that is, again, the change in quarterback. Jalen Milroe is on to the NFL, opening up a quarterback competition that appears to be led by Ty Simpson. Making the right choice there is going to go a massive way in figuring out the 2025 season.

4. Texas A&M Aggies (4.3%)

In 2024, the Texas A&M Aggies exceeded most expectations. It was the first season for head coach Mike Elko in College Station. Under him, the Aggies would go 8-5 but were competitive for the SEC late in the season. However, only winning one out of their five final games ended up costing the Aggies.

The goal in year two for Elko is to avoid a similar late season collapse. Solidifying the quarterback position, which Marcel Reed is expected to lead, is going to be key. He’s hoping to break out after a solid 2024 campaign. That, along with a defense ready to take a step forward, should help get Texas A&M back to the top of the conference standings.

5. Tennessee Volunteers (4.2%)

The Tennessee Volunteers have found consistent success under head coach Josh Heupel that the program had gone a long time without. That saw the Volunteers go to the CFP in 2024, after winning double-digit games for the second time in three seasons. Now, the next goal has to be winning the SEC for the first time since 1998.

Of course, perhaps no SEC team had as dramatic an offseason as Tennessee. Last season’s starting quarterback, Nico Iamaleava, and the school had a standoff over NIL that ended with his transfer to UCLA. That, ironically, led to Tennessee bringing in former UCLA quarterback Joey Aguilar. It’s a difficult spot to be in, especially with plenty of other roster turnover, but the Volunteers still have good odds to win the conference from ESPN.

6. LSU Tigers (3.5%)

When the LSU Tigers hired Brian Kelly, it was to win SEC Championships and go to the College Football Playoff. That hasn’t happened yet in three previous seasons with the program. 2024 saw the Tigers end up going 9-4, the worst season they’ve had by record since Kelly got to Baton Rouge. Still, there is hope that LSU can compete again in 2025.

One of the biggest strengths for LSU in 2025 is that, among the teams toward the top of ESPN’s predicted order of finish, they’re returning a veteran quarterback. Garrett Nussmeier threw for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns last season. If he can clean up the 12 interceptions, he’s expected to be a Heisman contender and potentially a top draft pick. With talent all over the roster, the Tigers will go however far he takes them.

7. Ole Miss Rebels (2.8%)

Since getting to Oxford, head coach Lane Kiffin has had Ole Miss consistently competitive. That’s included double-digit win seasons in three of the last four years. Still, they haven’t yet played for the SEC Championship under Kiffin. Ole Miss, as a program, hasn’t even won the conference since 1963. So, it’s been a long time coming to try and win the next one.

Quarterback isn’t often a concern under Kiffin given his offensive pedigree. At the same time, it’s a question for Ole Miss again in 2025 with Jaxson Dart moving on to the NFL. Austin Simmons is going to be the presumed starter next season, and if he takes over in stride, there’s enough talent around him to be competitive. Growing pains, however, could lead to issues in the incredibly talented SEC.

8. Auburn Tigers (1.8%)

The Auburn Tigers have been an interesting team since the end of the Gus Malzahn era. First, the program turned to Bryan Harsin, but after a disastrous and brief tenure, they turned the reigns over to Hugh Freeze for a rebuild. Through two seasons, it’s been a slow rebuild, going 11-14 and having trouble getting the offense going.

Recruiting has been good under Freeze, both in the portal and high school ranks. So, going into year three, there is an expectation that the Tigers are able to take another step forward. A major part of that is going to, of course, fall on the shoulders of quarterback Jackson Arnold. Once a highly-touted recruit, he transferred from Oklahoma following a difficult season in 2024, looking to rejuvenate his career.

9. South Carolina Gamecocks (1.8%)

The South Carolina Gamecocks found themselves on the edge of the College Football Playoff last season. That was on the back of an excellent defensive line and a breakout season for quarterback LaNorris Sellers. With that, expectations are high from fans to be competitive in the SEC next season and maybe even make it to their first Playoff.

Expectations are high now, though, and they won’t be catching anyone by surprise. So, the Gamecocks not only need to live up to those, they’re going to need to do it while getting everyone’s best shot. Much of that is going to come down to if the incoming transfers complement the roster well enough to meet those expectations.

10. Oklahoma Sooners (1.2%)

It was a difficult first season in the SEC for Oklahoma. Despite some positives, particularly late in the season, it was a frustrating year. The offense, in particular, struggled, benching Jackson Arnold and trying to go a new direction on that side of the ball. Things never fully clicked, though, and a program that expects to be Playoff caliber will be looking for better in 2025.

Head coach Brent Venables completely redid the offensive side of the ball. New offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle is bringing his own quarterback, John Mateer. How those two handle the transition will be massive. It’s also important that, as head coach Brent Venables goes back to calling plays defensively, they’re able to balance that focus throughout games.

11. Florida Gators (1.0%)

Going into the 2024 season, Florida head coach Billy Napier was firmly on the hot seat. Then, throughout the season, the Gators showed plenty of improvement, especially when quarterback DJ Lagway took over. Things still weren’t perfect by any means, but it was enough to get another season.

There aren’t real expectations for the Gators to compete for an SEC Championship in 2025. There are, however, expectations they take another step forward with DJ Lagway at quarterback for the Gators. Around him, there’s plenty of question marks. Florida is a young team, after all. Still, they’ve recruited well and have plenty of raw talent.

12. Missouri Tigers (0.6%)

The Missouri Tigers have often caught teams by surprise in recent seasons. Head coach Eli Drinkwitz has now won double-digit games two seasons in a row. That’s made them competitive in the SEC, though it’s obvious that ESPN is predicting them to take a bit of a step back in 2025.

The Tigers are going to be leaning on some transfers next season. At quarterback, Beau Pribula comes in from Penn State. Then, running back Ahmad Hardy is coming over from ULM. Both seem to fit the system well but come with question marks. Answer those, and Missouri could be competitive again.

13. Arkansas Razorbacks (0.5%)

The Arkansas Razorbacks are coming off a 7-6 season. The challenge is that the Razorbacks can’t afford to take a step back from that mark in the SEC, which has depth that is incredibly difficult to compete against week in and week out. Otherwise, head coach Sam Pittman could be looking at a potential spot on the hot seat.

The major concern for Arkansas is the offensive line. That unit hasn’t given the solid skill players time or the ability to properly run the offense. Without fixing that, it’s going to be a long and difficult season. However, if they do fix that, then the Razorbacks have the ability to surprise some folks.

14. Kentucky Wildcats (0.1%)

Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops is now the longest-tenured coach in the SEC. That comes as he failed to lead the Wildcats to a bowl game in 2024 for the first time since 2015. That came amid some offensive issues that they’ll need to address to bounce back in 2025.

Kentucky once again hit the portal for its next quarterback, bringing in Zach Calzada. He has experience and SEC experience but wasn’t great in his time at this level. The Wildcats will need him to be a success, but they’ll also need help in several other key spots. Part of that is getting more physical. Otherwise, it seems like a tough spot to be in.

15. Vanderbilt Commodores (0.0%)

Vanderbilt is very rarely predicted to win the SEC. Still, coming off a 7-6 season and their first bowl game since 2018, the vibes are good in Nashville. That was a magical season at times under quarterback Diego Pavia, particularly in their upset over Alabama.

Pavia has received a waiver to return in 2025 and hopes to continue some of that magic next year. He’s a special player to rally around, but will definitely need some help. In particular, some help along the line of scrimmage would go a long way to getting the Commodores back to a bowl game.

16. Mississippi State Bulldogs (0.0%)

The Mississippi State Bulldogs round out ESPN’s predictions for the SEC, coming in at 16th. That came after they went 2-10 in their first season under head coach Jeff Lebby. It’s a complete rebuild in Starkville, and clearly, ESPN thinks it’s going to take a little while to get more competitive. Still, last place is a difficult place to land.

The hope is Blake Shapen can be healthy and help lead the offense, which he flashed the ability to do in 2024 before his injury. Still, they got hit hard by the portal this offseason, and are thin at wide receiver and across the defense. It’s going to be hard to make up for all that they’re missing along the roster in the conference they play in.