ESPN predicts win-loss record for every Big 12 Football team in 2025

The college football season is rapidly approaching with less than three months to go until kickoff. Ahead of that, ESPN announced its predictions for every Big 12 team’s record going into the 2025 season.

The Big 12 has become a conference that is known for its parity and tightly contested games. So, it’s not a surprise that the win totals ESPN has announced are fairly tightly packed. It’s also important to note that these records are different from a prediction of the conference standings for the Big 12. Of course, there is still always room for surprises in this conference.

These records are based on ESPN’s FPI metric. It’s a metric that is used to measure team strength and is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance throughout the season. Its goal is to predict outcomes, and that’s exactly what it did here for the Big 12.

1. Kansas State Wildcats (8.6-3.7)

The Kansas State Wildcats come in with the highest projected win total in the Big 12. That’s not much of a surprise, though, given that the Wildcats have aspirations to win the conference. Win the conference and then the Wildcats are going to be headed to the College Football Playoff.

Starting quarterback Avery Johnson is set to return despite some rumors that teams might want to poach him. He is going to be dealing with a new offensive coordinator, though, as Matt Wells is coming in as the team’s next coordinator. Much of their success this upcoming season is going to likely depend on that relationship.

2. Arizona State Sun Devils (8.3-3.9)

The Arizona State Sun Devils caught everyone by surprise last season, winning the Big 12 and going to the Playoff. Now, they’re not going to catch anyone by surprise. At the same time, they’re clearly a team that’s capable of putting together a magical season as it’s currently constructed.

The offense is, unsurprisingly, going to fall under scrutiny this season. Arizona State must replace star running back Cam Skattebo, who is now in the NFL. That won’t be an easy task. It’s also, probably, going to lead to more pressure falling on the shoulders of quarterback Sam Leavitt. If he can take a step forward, though, there’s no reason why the Sun Devils won’t hit their win total.

3. BYU Cougars (8.0-4.2)

The BYU Cougars were another team that caught a lot of teams by surprise last season. They went 11-2 and won a bowl game in the process. They fell short of making the Big 12 title game. Now, they’re expected to take a slight step back but expectations are still high.

There are now major questions for returning starting quarterback Jake Retzlaff off the field, as he was accused of sexual assault in a civil lawsuit. That will likely be a distraction, but he’s proven himself on the field already. If BYU can handle some pretty severe turnover at other spots, there is absolutely a path to this win total.

4. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7.9-4.2)

Nobody in the Big 12 went all in this offseason like Texas Tech did. Texas Tech’s transfer class is ranked first in the 2025 cycle, according to the On3 College Football Team Transfer Portal Rankings. That, on top of a pair of new coordinators, means the Red Raiders will have a completely new look next season.

Texas Tech has a lot of new faces and with that comes questions of chemistry and adjustment. At the same time, there is a ton of talent to work with here. Expectations are going to be that the Red Raiders compete for the Big 12 championship and, by default, the College Football Playoff.

5. Kansas Jayhawks (7.9-4.3)

The Kansas Jayhawks are coming off a frustrating season where they struggled to live up to expectations that they’d built for themselves under head coach Lance Leipold. Still, few expect them to go 5-7 again. FPI is no different, looking at nearly eight wins for the 2025 season.

As has been the case in many recent seasons, Kansas is going to lean on veteran quarterback Jalon Daniels. As he goes, the offense has largely gone. However, injuries have been a major part of his career story too. Still, if he stays healthy and connects with new offensive coordinator Jim Zebrowski, then the Jayhawks should be good in 2025.

6. Baylor Bears (7.2-5.0)

The Baylor Bears surprised plenty of people in 2024. After coming into the season with some of the lowest expectations in the Big 12, the Bears went 8-5 with a bowl loss. Now, they’re going into 2025 as one of those Big 12 teams that can be difficult to judge, though ESPN did its best with a little over seven wins.

Head coach Dave Aranda has the benefit of continuity going into 2025. The Bears return a good amount of experience. With some further development, there is a good chance that Baylor finds a way to put together another really strong season.

7. TCU Horned Frogs (7.2-5.0)

The TCU Horned Frogs have been a little inconsistent since their Playoff run in head coach Sonny Dykes‘ first season at TCU. Still, they finished the 2024 season strong and now are looking to build on that momentum. Even with that, however, ESPN still has TCU towards the middle of the Big 12 in regards to their projected win total.

Quarterback Josh Hoover broke out in a big way last season. Teams even tried to lure him into the Transfer Portal, but he’s still a Horned Frog. With another step forward in Sonny Dykes’ offensive system, the Horned Frogs could easily have one of the best offenses in the conference.

8. UCF Knights (7.2-4.9)

UCF finds itself in a unique position. The Knights severely underperformed in 2024 and then saw former head coach Gus Malzahn leave the program. Despite that, ESPN’s FPI still has them in the middle of the pack in the parity-driven Big 12.

The trouble with UCF is that thanks to Transfer Portal turnover, the roster is completely new. The Knights also brought in former head coach Scott Frost to lead the program once again. He had tons of success with UCF, but that was in the AAC and as long ago as 2017. So, it’s hard to guess what this team looks like now.

9. Iowa State Cyclones (6.7-5.4)

The Iowa State Cyclones have consistently been a competitive team under head coach Matt Campbell. Last season, they even played in the Big 12 Championship Game. Given that, it might surprise some that ESPN doesn’t have Iowa State with a higher win total than this.

There is a basic challenge for Iowa State. While quarterback Rocco Becht returns for the 2025 season, very few of the weapons around him return. With a near complete turnover in the wide receiver room, getting Becht to connect with his new skill players is massive. Figuring that out is going to be vital to surpassing these expectations.

10. Colorado Buffaloes (6.5-5.5)

No team has had more attention on them in recent seasons than the Colorado Buffaloes. That’s, largely, thanks to head coach Deion Sanders. Now, however, Sanders is going to be coaching without his son, Shedeur Sanders, and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter. That, along with another round of Transfer Portal turnover, is going to make for plenty of questions.

It appears that Colorado is going to start Kaidon Salter this season. A veteran transfer, he’s going to be able to make some things happen. Still, ESPN’s projected win total makes this clear, there’s room for growing pains next year as Colorado moves on from those stars.

11. Utah Utes (6.4-5.6)

The Utah Utes didn’t transition into the Big 12 nearly as gracefully as they had hoped. Now, there are seemingly more questions than ever about the Utes under head coach Kyle Whittingham. That’s likely why Utah ended up where ESPN is projecting them.

One major issue last season was the quarterback position, as the now-retired Cam Rising has battled some major injury issues in recent seasons. To address the offense, Whittingham made some major changes. That includes a new offensive coordinator in Jason Beck to run the offense along with transfer quarterback Devon Dampier.

12. Cincinnati Bearcats (6.4-5.7)

Last season was a tale of two halves for Cincinnati. After opening the season 5-2, they lost each of their final five to miss out on bowl eligibility. It was a bit of a disaster for Scott Satterfield, who now has had losing seasons in each of his first two with the Bearcats. So, getting to this ESPN projected win total of better than six games would be a major step forward.

The key is going to be able to replicate what Cincinnati did in the first half throughout the year next season. There’s enough talent coming back to try and replicate that. It’s just not likely this team does more than compete for a bowl game.

13. Oklahoma State Cowboys (5.5-6.6)

Last season was, arguably, the worst for Mike Gundy in two decades with Oklahoma State. They didn’t win a single Big 12 game, and in the offseason, there was a standoff regarding his contract. Now, Oklahoma State is looking to fight to get back to bowl eligibility.

Oklahoma State has new coordinators and plenty of questions. Mike Gundy is going to need those moves to work, otherwise he could be in some trouble. The reality is that more is expected of him in Stillwater than was provided last season or what ESPN is predicting for next season.

14. West Virginia Mountaineers (5.2-6.9)

The West Virginia Mountaineers had found themselves consistently toward the middle of the pack in the Big 12 under Neal Brown. Ultimately, they decided that wasn’t going to be enough for their program. So, they made the move to bring back legendary Mountaineers head coach Rich Rodriguez.

This offseason, Rodriguez has completely flipped the roster in the Transfer Portal. Even with that, ESPN isn’t overly confident in the Mountaineers. They have one of the lowest projected win totals in all of the Big 12.

15. Arizona Wildcats (4.9-7.1)

The Arizona Wildcats came into the Big 12 with some high expectations last season. They completely failed to meet them, going just 4-8. That even led to some questions about the first-year coaching staff, led by Brent Brennan.

The Transfer Portal has taken a major toll on Arizona. One, anonymous Big 12 coach even pointed to that, saying he doesn’t “think they really have their identity or culture in place yet.” Fixing that this offseason is going to be a major challenge for the coaches as they look to outdo these relatively low expectations.

16. Houston Cougars (4.8-7.2)

The hiring of Willie Fritz was widely regarded as an excellent one. At the same time, he’s known for rebuilding projects and that’s absolutely the case at Houston. It was a difficult first season last year, but that wasn’t much of a surprise.

A major key for Houston next season will come down to the success of transfer quarterback Conner Weigman. If he clicks, then there’s no reason why Houston can’t beat those expectations. If not, it could be another long season for the Cougars.